Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Cerlin]

Interesting to see if GFS shifts west like it has been the last couple runs or does a more SE shift like the rest of the models are hinting at. Also interesting to see if it will continue to show fantasy amounts of snow or tone it back.

I'm going to guess it will trend slightly colder and more qpf. Earlier in the week (before Thurs or Weds) this system was shown to come through with some specs of qpf, less than half an inch or 0.25" or fewer even. In the days since we have gone full fledged convective inch to multi inch liquid equivalent major storm. Think about that! A few nights ago the discussion was how the trough was coming through dry, despite looking so strong at 500mb...now look at it.

That’s what I love about weather. Every day brings new changes and things can change so quickly that there’s always something to look at. Always gets me excited!!

[gpsnowman]

Icon has strong convective snow/rain to the w/nw (this model doesn't show the mixing stuff in-between, at least not on tidbits) while DFW is at or close to freezing and raining hard. Transitions to snow on the backside as the upper trough crosses.

This one is beginning to trend SE as well...good trends to start off the 0Z suites this evening, next up GFS!!!

Thought about hitting the sack after the game with a belly full of food and beer but my goodness some serious trends just since the second half kickoff!! Think I will stay up and wait for the next round of models. Initially my main concern was cold air like it normally is. Now it seems the ingredients are slowly mixing together for the perfect recipe. At least for now.

[Brent]

Just saw this comment on Facebook from Dan Brounoff on KRLD this would be fun

A couple of inches will coat the top of the sleet, Wednesday night into Thursday morning

[cheezyWXguy]

0z GFS is looking quite consistent with the 18z through hour 60, and doesn’t look much like the NAM changes. Wondering if the new data hasn’t in yet. Precip sheild looks more intense out west though

[Brent]

0z GFS is looking quite consistent with the 18z through hour 60, and doesn’t look much like the NAM changes. Wondering if the new data hasn’t in yet. Precip sheild looks more intense out west though

A foot of snow out by Abilene again

Correction 15 inches

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is looking quite consistent with the 18z through hour 60, and doesn’t look much like the NAM changes. Wondering if the new data hasn’t in yet. Precip sheild looks more intense out west though

It won't take much to get that further east. That convection though, thundersnow, thundersleet all definitely at play.

If we think DFW is at crosshairs unfair, look at Lubbock to Childress and Southwest Oklahoma. Lots of snow for a few runs, some on the Euro but then GFS shafts them with zip. Wouldn't want to be at their WFOs either.

[Haris]

0z GFS is looking quite consistent with the 18z through hour 60, and doesn’t look much like the NAM changes. Wondering if the new data hasn’t in yet. Precip sheild looks more intense out west though

It won't take much to get that further east. That convection though, thundersnow, thundersleet all definitely at play.

Ntxwx, do you think there will be another good round of precip Wed night. That is what I am banking on down here

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is looking quite consistent with the 18z through hour 60, and doesn’t look much like the NAM changes. Wondering if the new data hasn’t in yet. Precip sheild looks more intense out west though

It won't take much to get that further east. That convection though, thundersnow, thundersleet all definitely at play.

Ntxwx, do you think there will be another good round of precip Wed night. That is what I am banking on down here

That's what you're watching for. ULL disturbance coming through and generating enough lift for precip in the cold air that models may not catch yet.

[Cerlin]

So it went for the fantasy totals again. Interesting GFS.

[Jarodm12]

0z GFS is looking quite consistent with the 18z through hour 60, and doesn’t look much like the NAM changes. Wondering if the new data hasn’t in yet. Precip sheild looks more intense out west though

It won't take much to get that further east. That convection though, thundersnow, thundersleet all definitely at play.

If we think DFW is at crosshairs unfair, look at Lubbock to Childress and Southwest Oklahoma. Lots of snow for a few runs, some on the Euro but then GFS shafts them with zip. Wouldn't want to be at their WFOs either.

So I wil defer to your expertise, are we no longer worried about the tempatures? or is there still cause for concern?

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is looking quite consistent with the 18z through hour 60, and doesn’t look much like the NAM changes. Wondering if the new data hasn’t in yet. Precip sheild looks more intense out west though

It won't take much to get that further east. That convection though, thundersnow, thundersleet all definitely at play.

If we think DFW is at crosshairs unfair, look at Lubbock to Childress and Southwest Oklahoma. Lots of snow for a few runs, some on the Euro but then GFS shafts them with zip. Wouldn't want to be at their WFOs either.

So I wil defer to your expertise, are we no longer worried about the tempatures? or is there still cause for concern?

Temperatures matter, for type of precip too. I would yield to the high res guidance for that though within 48 hours. Only look for trends from the globals.

[gpsnowman]

0z GFS is looking quite consistent with the 18z through hour 60, and doesn’t look much like the NAM changes. Wondering if the new data hasn’t in yet. Precip sheild looks more intense out west though

It won't take much to get that further east. That convection though, thundersnow, thundersleet all definitely at play.

Ntxwx, do you think there will be another good round of precip Wed night. That is what I am banking on down here

Kinda what I was thinking. If the cold air is there with the precip shield wider then the snow path depicted on the map Brent posted is too narrow. Maybe more widespread all around.

[Texas Snow]

So I wil defer to your expertise, are we no longer worried about the tempatures? or is there still cause for concern?

Nothing is set for sure, but surface temps have looked better today. Temps throughout the entire column are even less certain which is why the NWS is showing all precip types for now. tomorrow is when things should really start to take shape, but of course in Texas I‘m never gonna count them chickens until we are now-casting

[Brent]

It won't take much to get that further east. That convection though, thundersnow, thundersleet all definitely at play.

Ntxwx, do you think there will be another good round of precip Wed night. That is what I am banking on down here

Kinda what I was thinking. If the cold air is there with the precip shield wider then the snow path depicted on the map Brent posted is too narrow. Maybe more widespread all around.

if it was wider I would assume the GFS totals probably would be cut in half maybe out where it shows a foot+

[TropicalTundra]

https://kutv.com/news/local/weather-wat ... ow-in-utah

[harp]

Hey, where is 57?

[Brent]

Hey, where is 57?

Reinforcing his wall

[Texas Snow]

Hey, where is 57?

Undoubtedly out on his bike this fine Sunday while the weather is still favorable for such endeavors.

I am actually really interested to hear what he has to say about this event with the benefit of tomorrow’s updated guidance, as well as that of his cold mongering co-workers...

[nathanc1969]

Well here I sit in San Angelo waiting on the storm. My how things can change from winter cancel to snow fun in such a short time. I am laughing at the 15" total in my area as that would be the winter storm of the century. Still hoping for enough to cover the grass for just a taste of winter.

[harp]

Ya'll enjoy this because after this, it's back to Mr. Zonal Flow.