#2234 Postby Tammie » Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:07 am
Latest from the NWS
000
FXUS64 KFWD 030855
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
255 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2020
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1218 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2020/
/This Morning through Tonight/
No major changes to the late afternoon/early forecasts through
today, outside removing the potential for thunderstorms this
afternoon in favor of showers. Otherwise, plentiful mid-high level
moisture streaming northeastward within southwest flow aloft
continues through much of the day today. However, despite
occasional mid level impulses and increasing low level warm
advection, very dry low levels below 700mb will take quite a bit
of time to saturate down for much in the way of measurable
rainfall, though a few rogue light showers may visit Central Texas
late in the day. A tight surface pressure gradient well in advance
of deepening low pressure across Kansas into Eastern Colorado will
help to maintain breezy south winds 15-20 mph with occasional
gusts in excess of 25 mph. After a mild start to the day by early
February standards, the impressive warm advection should easily
counter the decrease in insolation from the mid-high cloud canopy
to warm temperatures back into the lower 70s for most this afternoon.
The top-down moistening of the environmental layer continues
tonight in advance of our anticipated strong arctic cold front
dropping south through Kansas and into Oklahoma tonight. Periodic
mid level impulses will not only help to gradually moisten the low
levels tonight, but will also contribute to steepening mid level
lapse rates approaching 7 Deg C/Km, increasing MUCAPE...or in
general terms...instability. Enough modest large-scale ascent will
occur across particularly our Central and East Texas counties
where higher quality moisture and advection will be centered.
Showers will be on the increase in advance of our approaching
arctic front, with the instability providing the potential for a
few embedded and elevated thunderstorms. Despite impressive deep
layer shear, the instability will be mostly confined aloft and not
overly impressive. We do not anticipate any severe weather and
most of the thunderstorm activity will be of the general variety
with brief downpours and lightning strikes being the primary
hazard. The continued gusty southerly winds in advance of the cold
front will combine with abundant cloud cover at multiple levels
for warm low temperatures in mid 50s to lower 60s for most, though
areas in our far western counties and immediate Red River Valley
may see lows in the upper 40s as the cold front enters those areas
right before daybreak Tuesday.
05/
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday and Beyond/
The arrival of an arctic front will be imminent at the start of
the period. The front will be on our doorstep by daybreak
Tuesday, then will plunge southward during the day and likely
clear the southern zones prior to sunset. Scattered showers and
an isolated storm or 2 will be possible along the boundary, but
the fast and shallow nature of the southward-expanding frontal
layer should keep convection benign and short-lived.
Rapidly falling post-frontal temperatures will have readings
ranging from near freezing in the northwest counties to the mid
and upper 40s across the southeast by midnight Tuesday night.
Meanwhile, a deepening upper trough over the southern Rockies will
place North and Central Texas beneath a region of strengthening
isentropic lift. An area of precipitation will subsequently
develop over the Big Country and spread east-northeastward into
North Texas around midnight. Rain will likely transition to a mix
of freezing rain and sleet as temperatures fall below 32. This
transition zone will expend eastward with time as strong cold air
advection maintains the trend of steadily falling temperatures.
After the brief bout of freezing rain and sleet, areas roughly
along and northwest of a line from Gainesville to Cisco should
quickly transition to a sleet-snow mix, then all snow by daybreak
Wednesday; as deep column cooling results from the advancing
trough to our west. Accumulations of a sleet/snow combination of 1
to 3 inches with locally higher amounts will be possible in these
areas by midday Wednesday, and some travel problems could very
well arise for folks heading west on I-20 or northwest on Highway
287. A Winter Storm Watch has therefore been added for our 8
northwestern-most counties beginning midnight Tuesday night and
going through the day Wednesday. There is still plenty of
uncertainty regarding exact totals, but with some guidance going
considerably higher than 3", we feel the watch is warranted at
this time.
Farther east, or for areas extending along a line from
Bonham to DFW to Lampasas, temperatures will be near freezing by
daybreak Wednesday, where a combination rain/freezing rain and
sleet is more likely for Wednesday morning. Temperatures will
hover near or just below freezing, allowing for accumulations on
mainly elevated surfaces. These accumulations of ice/sleet may
still be enough to have an impact on bridges and overpasses, so it
is advisable to continue to keep up with the latest forecast updates
as more data becomes available over the next 24 hours. A cold
rain will then be the norm for the southeastern third of the
region.
Most precipitation will lift northeastward out of the area
Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, another batch of winter
precipitation may develop Wednesday night, as the upper trough
axis passes east across the region. This precipitation would be
primarily, if not all, in the form of snow. Just about everyone
will have a shot to experience it, though little or no accumulation
is expected as any winter precipitation would be very light.
CLouds and precip will exit on Thursday, but the lingering arctic
airmass will keep the cold air in place through Thursday night.
Temperatures should recover to near-normal readings on Friday. A
passing shortwave may bring a slight chance of rain on Saturday,
but POPs will be kept below 20 percent due to a lack of
appreciable moisture. Good rain chances return during the first
half of next week as the next upper level trough approaches.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 1218 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2020/
/06z TAFs/
Concerns and challenges: Timing arrival of MVFR cigs late today or
this evening, then possible IFR cigs across Central Texas early
Tuesday morning. Potential for isolated thunderstorms, especially
the Waco Regional area tonight.
Southwest flow aloft will continue with most moisture contained
above 600mb, but then seeing some top-down saturation down to
around/or just below 700mb this coming afternoon. Despite a strong
southwesterly LLJ of 30-40 knots across the area tonight, low
levels will remain too dry for any stratus advection or formation
through 12z Monday. The one challenge it will present is more than
a 30 degree veering of the LLJ compared to straight S winds 15
knots or less at the surface...resulting in LLWS issues between
FL015-020. This will be maintained in the TAF through 15z. By
then, warming and mixing of the surface-boundary layer should
allow for slight veering and strengthening surface winds 15-20
knots and dissipating the LLWS threat.
The strong and continued low level warm advection today into this
evening, along with occasional mid level impulses should result in
VFR cigs lowering after 00z Tuesday with MVFR cigs likely arriving
in the 03z-06z Tuesday time frame. In addition, mid level lapse
rates will increase with MUCAPE values increasing by 03z Tuesday
and after for high-based and mostly elevated TS near and east of
all D10 terminals. At this point, confidence and coverage appear
too low for any VCTS or TSRA mention in the extended pds of this
06z TAF set.
Otherwise, occasionally gusty S winds 10-15 knots with gusts to,
or in excess of 25 knots at times can be expected throughout the
TAFs at all airports.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 59 64 32 38 / 5 30 40 50 80
Waco 74 60 72 35 41 / 20 30 30 40 60
Paris 71 58 64 35 39 / 20 50 60 40 80
Denton 74 56 60 31 37 / 5 30 40 50 80
McKinney 72 57 63 32 38 / 5 30 50 50 80
Dallas 73 60 67 32 39 / 5 30 40 50 80
Terrell 71 60 69 35 40 / 20 40 40 40 80
Corsicana 72 61 71 37 40 / 20 40 40 40 80
Temple 74 59 74 36 41 / 20 40 30 40 50
Mineral Wells 76 54 59 28 35 / 5 10 30 60 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon for TXZ091-092-100>102-115-116-129.
&&
$$
30/05
1 likes
Tammie - Sherman TX
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
not a single member even has an inch 
it's definitely more ice than snow until you get into Oklahoma and up towards the Falls and again it's freaky close to just being rain in the metro
most of us don't want.....
