Texas Winter 2019-2020

[stormlover2013]

models struggle bad with this in Texas, it's just going to be a wait and see game!!!

[TropicalTundra]

Going to hope front arrives early tomorrow otherwise this looks like a cold rain/Ice event

[EnnisTx]

Well, frick. Pretty poor trends.

It was looking pretty poor back in 2010 too, but we all know what happened then. I really think this will be a last minute surprise good or bad. Meaning ice or snow.

[Cerlin]

I still think we’re overdue for an over performing event.

[gpsnowman]

Ice is no good. Not the scenario I wanted to see this morning. I do expect the winter weather watch will expand south and east to include the Metroplex so maybe the snow line will expand with it? It is not that far off anyway. Still 48 hours for changes.

[TropicalTundra]

Is 57 done with the wall?

[rwfromkansas]

I am okay with ice if it’s sleet. The problem is, it’s a very narrow area that gets that instead of regular rain.

[bubba hotep]

09z SREF is a no go for DFW and it looks like the 12z NAMs are coming in slower with the cold front.

[starsfan65]

09z SREF is a no go for DFW and it looks like the 12z NAMs are coming in slower with the cold front.

iNAM is also a bit colder in the Upper Levels.

[stormlover2013]

lol the nam, prob the worse model out there.

[Brent]

I still think we’re overdue for an over performing event.

We've been overdue for so long it's gotten stupid

[Ralph's Weather]

lol the nam, prob the worse model out there.

It typically is great at this range. It does tend to underdo precip but it is great for temperature and disturbance tracking.

[stormlover2013]

nam is not good, watch the HRR model and see how it updates and look at that one, it's better than the NAM

[Cerlin]

We’re at the point to where we can’t put any stock in the global models as it’s pretty much too close now and we’re out of its best range.

[stormlover2013]

watch trends in the HRR model

[cheezyWXguy]

nam is not good, watch the HRR model and see how it updates and look at that one, it's better than the NAM

At least over the last year, the NAM has been better at handling severe weather than the HRRR in terms of both the 500mb pattern and precip depiction. I guess we'll see how it performs with winter storms.

[bubba hotep]

06z TX Tech WRF shows convective elements movng through DFW Wednesday with temps below freezing. Using the model derived soundings looks like it could be heavy sleet transitioning to snow, it would be close.

[Jarodm12]

The 12z nam isnt a no go for us in southern Oklahoma or Dallas it's just that it lifts out the main precip shield alittle further west, limiting our amounts of ice and snow, this could easily change over the next 48 hours, but it still is not a no go on temps and dew points, keep thr faith yall the storm could easily shift 50 to 100 miles eastward before it lifts out !

[cheezyWXguy]

The 12z nam isnt a no go for us in southern Oklahoma or Dallas it's just that it lifts out the main precip shield alittle further west, limiting our amounts of ice and snow, this could easily change over the next 48 hours, but it still is not a no go on temps and dew points, keep thr faith yall the storm could easily shift 50 to 100 miles eastward before it lifts out !

You do have a point, any deviation east or south of the storm track would most likely bump up accumulations.

[gpsnowman]

06z TX Tech WRF shows convective elements movng through DFW Wednesday with temps below freezing. Using the model derived soundings looks like it could be heavy sleet transitioning to snow, it would be close.

Goodness. So many moving parts with so many outcomes but this would be good. Start with some sleet ending with snow as the column cools. IF this is what it takes to get a beautiful snowstorm then so be it. Freezing rain during the morning commute worries me. It would be disastrous. Those of us with children will need to watch this very closely because if the districts wait to long too make a choice on school closings, it is up to the parents to make the call. A very tricky situation.