Texas Winter 2019-2020

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
WacoWx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 664
Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:14 pm
Location: NOT Waco, TX ----> Dallas, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2321 Postby WacoWx » Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:42 pm

Some people are in to that sort of thing.
2 likes   

DFW Stormwatcher
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 240
Age: 54
Joined: Sun Dec 27, 2009 10:35 pm
Location: Keller, Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2322 Postby DFW Stormwatcher » Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:44 pm

boca wrote:Maybe I’ll find a flight to Witchita Falls from South Florida since when I went to New York I saw rain and 48 degrees.


Goodness man go to Colorado or another given snow location. We certainly have a lot more chances for frozen precip than you but it is never a given. You may end up in Wichita Falls watching virga not hitting the ground or worse yet, cold rain...
2 likes   
Disclaimer: This is not an official weather forecast. I am only an amateur weather enthusiast therefore any weather forecasts or opinions should be taken with a grain of salt. Hook em Horns!

User avatar
Cerlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1182
Age: 23
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:06 am
Location: Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2323 Postby Cerlin » Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:52 pm

harp wrote:Why would y'all want to go see somebody else's snow? I have had chances to do that here, it just doesn't interest me.

Some people like different things. We’re so snow starved (good accumulating snow) that some people (myself included) would drive somewhere just to see it again.
3 likes   
Graduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma!
All opinions independent of employers and the university.

losf1981
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 109
Joined: Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:09 pm
Location: Wichita Falls, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2324 Postby losf1981 » Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:59 pm

Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
Brent wrote:unless this trends snowier for DFW I am looking at possibly headed up towards Wichita Falls since I'm off Wednesday

I'm kind of over chasing snow(especially when none have been that big)... but if the higher totals are gonna verify :lol:


If I wasn't so booked up then I would pull my kids from school and make the drive. I might do it anyway lol!


if it really does snow close to a foot like the Euro said it'll be worth it

losf1981 wrote:
Brent wrote:unless this trends snowier for DFW I am looking at possibly headed up towards Wichita Falls since I'm off Wednesday

I'm kind of over chasing snow(especially when none have been that big)... but if the higher totals are gonna verify :lol:


A reserved excitement is what I would call it around here in WF.


yeah I know... yall kind of been in the same boat we have down here

Speaking of the Euro it's been very consistent on not much in DFW and a bullseye near WF


https://i.ibb.co/NxdCSL6/sn10-acc-us-sc-10.png


Even the local fuddy duddy weather man has gone all in on this thing.
2 likes   

stormlover2013

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2325 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:04 pm

models struggle really bad with this setup, wouldn't surprise me one bit that this ends up happening.
2 likes   

User avatar
EnnisTx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 896
Joined: Sat Dec 26, 2015 4:06 pm
Location: Albany, Texas
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2326 Postby EnnisTx » Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:14 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:The ARW2 & NMMB WRFs both look like big hits for DFW with temps in the upper 20s. Also, essentially all guidance is off on temps with 30s already surging into the Panhandle. Amarillo is at 45F which is also colder than all guidance with some models being nearly 20F to warm.


Yep, the globals have no clue where this front is located


Something to watch this afternoon, models actually show temps rebounding across the Panhandles as warming essentially stalls the front. If the cold air plows south and temps don't rebound then that could be a game changer for those currently SE of the Winter Storm Watch.


The temperature has actually risen 3 degrees in Amarillo since around noon and a couple degrees in Dumas and Pampa.
2 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2327 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:27 pm

harp wrote:Why would y'all want to go see somebody else's snow? I have had chances to do that here, it just doesn't interest me.


When you don't see it here it becomes more of an issue lol we've had a longer streak in parts of the metro than other places to our south
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2328 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:30 pm

EnnisTx wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Yep, the globals have no clue where this front is located


Something to watch this afternoon, models actually show temps rebounding across the Panhandles as warming essentially stalls the front. If the cold air plows south and temps don't rebound then that could be a game changer for those currently SE of the Winter Storm Watch.


The temperature has actually risen 3 degrees in Amarillo since around noon and a couple degrees in Dumas and Pampa.


Noticed that, so models did get that but temps are still considerably lower than most models. Also, the cold front has slowed but still appears to be sagging SE. Even though I know globals can struggle with low level temps and perception placement, it is still deflating to see basically everything pointing to a cold rain for DFW lol
2 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

User avatar
EnnisTx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 896
Joined: Sat Dec 26, 2015 4:06 pm
Location: Albany, Texas
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2329 Postby EnnisTx » Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:43 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
EnnisTx wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
Something to watch this afternoon, models actually show temps rebounding across the Panhandles as warming essentially stalls the front. If the cold air plows south and temps don't rebound then that could be a game changer for those currently SE of the Winter Storm Watch.


The temperature has actually risen 3 degrees in Amarillo since around noon and a couple degrees in Dumas and Pampa.


Noticed that, so models did get that but temps are still considerably lower than most models. Also, the cold front has slowed but still appears to be sagging SE. Even though I know globals can struggle with low level temps and perception placement, it is still deflating to see basically everything pointing to a cold rain for DFW lol


That's true and it has slowed. I still think DFW get's in on this at a Southwest to Northeast trek across Dallas County.
Last edited by EnnisTx on Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2330 Postby Portastorm » Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:44 pm

18z NAM showing 1-2" of snow for Austin by midday Thursday. 12z Euro shows 1/2" to 1" ... meh ... I'll believe when I see it. :lol:
6 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3186
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2331 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:53 pm

Portastorm wrote:18z NAM showing 1-2" of snow for Austin by midday Thursday. 12z Euro shows 1/2" to 1" ... meh ... I'll believe when I see it. :lol:

I hope it happens for you Porta. Lets get some winter fun down in Austin!!!! It will be more than we get up here in DFW. Anywhere in Texas that gets snow is considered a win in my book.
1 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2332 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:53 pm

So close yet so far :spam:

Image
0 likes   
#neversummer

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3269
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2333 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:59 pm

Looks like DFW could be missed west and then SE in less than 24 hours time. Just about all data agrees on the Central to East Texas snow Wed night now.
3 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2334 Postby dhweather » Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:09 pm

Portastorm wrote:18z NAM showing 1-2" of snow for Austin by midday Thursday. 12z Euro shows 1/2" to 1" ... meh ... I'll believe when I see it. :lol:



Too bad this poor guy never learned that. :lol: :lol: :lol:

Image
2 likes   
The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2335 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:11 pm

18z 3k NAM is showing 0.2 - 0.5" of sleet across DFW.
2 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2336 Postby dhweather » Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:11 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
202 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020


.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Now through Tuesday Night/

After a mild weekend and start to the work week...very noteworthy
changes will take place late tonight into the day on Tuesday.

Light rain showers continue to spread across North and Central
Texas this afternoon. While our 12 UTC weather balloon data
indicates the presence of dry air near the surface...top down
moistening...as manifest in a few surface obs reporting light
rain...is underway. I expect that a few more sites will
experience some light rain accumulations this afternoon and I`ll
keep PoPs broad-brushed within the 20 to 30 percent range across
the area. Breezy surface winds will continue with speeds on the
order of 15 to 25 MPH as the cyclone deepens. Mild conditions will
persist this afternoon and during the overnight hours as 925mb
flow increases to near 45 knots. This will keep the boundary layer
overturned and most areas will experience above normal warmth
during the overnight period into early Tuesday.

Our much advertised Arctic cold front continues to barrel
southward and even outpaces some of the higher resolution model
simulations of where it *should* be.
With this in mind, I`ve
nudged high temperatures downward along the Red River for Tuesday
morning when FROPA is likely during the tail end of the overnight
period. NAM and HREF guidance was utilized for Tuesday`s high
temperatures and I`ll keep sub-50 degree highs near and northwest
of a Breckenridge to Bowie line. Toward the D/FW
Metroplex...temperatures early in the day may start out in the 60s
but will likely tumble through the 50s by mid to late morning.
Central Texas should still warm into the 70s...possibly near 80
degrees thanks to the compressional warming induced by the front.
There will be a risk for showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
ahead of the front. While I don`t expect widespread severe weather
due to the front`s tendency to undercut updrafts, I cannot rule
out a brief window for a small hail/strong wind risk.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2337 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:12 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
Looks like DFW could be missed west and then SE in less than 24 hours time
. Just about all data agrees on the Central to East Texas snow Wed night now.


The perfect Texas winter storm lol
2 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2338 Postby Portastorm » Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:13 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
Portastorm wrote:18z NAM showing 1-2" of snow for Austin by midday Thursday. 12z Euro shows 1/2" to 1" ... meh ... I'll believe when I see it. :lol:

I hope it happens for you Porta. Lets get some winter fun down in Austin!!!! It will be more than we get up here in DFW. Anywhere in Texas that gets snow is considered a win in my book.


Well, we had snow twice in December 2017, so I can't gripe. You DFW folks really need a nice snow event so I am pulling for you!

Valentines Day 2004 was the last time Austin had 1" or more of snow. Coming up on 16 years.
3 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3269
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2339 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:31 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:
Looks like DFW could be missed west and then SE in less than 24 hours time
. Just about all data agrees on the Central to East Texas snow Wed night now.


The perfect Texas winter storm lol

Yep, haha. But honestly it is such a close call for DFW between mostly rain, an inch of sleet or a few inches of snow. A degree or two change anywhere in the lower few thousand feet will change things drastically for yall. For East Texas Wed is at best a sleet/rain mix. Wed night thankfully appears to be a snow threat primarily though I will wait until tomorrow to be very confident in that event.
0 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2340 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:33 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:Looks like DFW could be missed west and then SE in less than 24 hours time. Just about all data agrees on the Central to East Texas snow Wed night now.


All I can do is laugh after all these years :lol: :lol: :lol:
1 likes   
#neversummer


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests