Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Quixotic]

I know we were talking about the WRF, but is that convective banding on there?

[Texas Snow]

Little to no change in the 18z Euro. I would be feeling pretty good about my snow chances if I was anywhere between Abilene and OKC. Flurries will be possible as far south as IH-10.

That would be welcome here in San Antonio. I’m not sure if you remember me from the hurricane and tropics threads, but I recently joined the Air Force and for time being, I’m still at Lackland. Winter is a little different than Jacksonville, but more or less the same so far.

Well thank you for your service. I hope you get to see snow!

[Texas Snow]

I know we were talking about the WRF, but is that convective banding on there?

This? That’s a thing of beauty right there. I hope it shows up again on the 0Z.
(For those not model hopping, this is an outlier but the hi-res are just coming into range.)

[Ralph's Weather]

I know we were talking about the WRF, but is that convective banding on there?

Sure is

[EnnisTx]

I know we were talking about the WRF, but is that convective banding on there?

This? That’s a thing of beauty. I hope it shows up again on the 0Z.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2020020312/wrf-arw_ref_frzn_scus_48.png

Convective banding and let's hope a bit of thunder!

[Ralph's Weather]

And remember the convective bands will have a tendency to pull down colder air which in areas with a small warm nose may see a transition to heavy snow.

[missygirl810]

I know we were talking about the WRF, but is that convective banding on there?

This? That’s a thing of beauty right there. I hope it shows up again on the 0Z.
(For those not model hopping, this is an outlier but the hi-res are just coming into range.)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2020020312/wrf-arw_ref_frzn_scus_48.png

Please come to central Arkansas since I am not home in Hunt Co lol

[BTAYLOR5021]

Why haven't a WWA at least been issues for Dallas Tarrant Collin Denton?

[Brent]

Why haven't a WWA at least been issues for Dallas Tarrant Collin Denton?

Too early advisories are more short range like warnings. We'll probably see something in the morning

Notice even up in WF it's still a watch

Honestly there's still a chance it's just rain in the metro too

[Texas Snow]

Why haven't a WWA at least been issues for Dallas Tarrant Collin Denton?

Some models show nothing. Plus they don't need to do it until I would say the afternoon update tomorrow unless overnight runs close in on a solution that would allow them to do it in the morning.

[EnnisTx]

And remember the convective bands will have a tendency to pull down colder air which in areas with a small warm nose may see a transition to heavy snow.

Very true and I've seen this happen several times. It can produce some nice quick accumulations. Here's hoping!

[South Texas Storms]

Little to no change in the 18z Euro. I would be feeling pretty good about my snow chances if I was anywhere between Abilene and OKC. Flurries will be possible as far south as IH-10.

That would be welcome here in San Antonio. I’m not sure if you remember me from the hurricane and tropics threads, but I recently joined the Air Force and for time being, I’m still at Lackland. Winter is a little different than Jacksonville, but more or less the same so far.

Awesome, welcome to SA! That's my hometown. Hope you're enjoying your time there. And thanks for your service.

[TropicalTundra]

Mostly everybody here doesn’t need this but if you need to see when the front hits your area, you can take a look https://www.weather.gov/oun/sfcmaps

[JMoses3419]

Mostly everybody here doesn’t need this but if you need to see when the front hits your area, you can take a look https://www.weather.gov/oun/sfcmaps

It smacked us in OKC after 2:00 (at which time it was 68°). By 5:00 it was down to 48° with wind chills down into the upper 30’s and lower 40’s.

[Brent]

DFW really nothing on the NAM but wow at 14 inches near WF

[ztshanklin]

I’d literally pay 500 bucks for that to shift a 150-200 miles East-southeast. Bullseye ft worth for a foot

[TexasF6]

Porta? What say you, oh Jedi Master of The Snowy South Austin Tauntaun Range? Where is Champ?

[TheProfessor]

Okay, so my laptop is acting up so I can't get fancy and posts Skew-Ts and images so I'll have to explain in words. But the 0z 3 Km NAM absolutely wallops DFW. Now if you go and look at a snowfall map you probably won't see much, and if you look at the radar it just shows up as rain. But again, I must hammer in the potential for Latent Heat Absorption. When the 3Km NAM is showing 35-50 dBZ bands passing through the Metroplex with surface temps around 34 and and small warm noses. I'd have to imagine that that would fall as heavy sleet or snow. Now what could throw a wrench in my prediction is if the 3Km already takes into account Latent Heat Absorption, but I'm not sure if it does and how well it does it. And of course it has to be right about the intensity of the precipitation.

[South Texas Storms]

0z HRRR now goes out through 6am Wednesday. It looks very similar to the Euro in keeping the main snow corridor from Abilene northeastward across Wichita Falls and up into OKC. Sleet and freezing rain looks to be the main concern in DFW, with any snowfall amounts likely remaining below 0.50 inch.

[Cerlin]

Disappointing that there’s not more for DFW but I’m glad there is stuff happening in Texas.