Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Texas Snow]

Okay, so my laptop is acting up so I can't get fancy and posts Skew-Ts and images so I'll have to explain in words. But the 0z 3 Km NAM absolutely wallops DFW. Now if you go and look at a snowfall map you probably won't see much, and if you look at the radar it just shows up as rain. But again, I must hammer in the potential for Latent Heat Absorption. When the 3Km NAM is showing 35-50 dBZ bands passing through the Metroplex with surface temps around 34 and and small warm noses. I'd have to imagine that that would fall as heavy sleet or snow. Now what could throw a wrench in my prediction is if the 3Km already takes into account Latent Heat Absorption, but I'm not sure if it does and how well it does it. And of course it has to be right about the intensity of the precipitation.

I was just about to post this as I was looking at the latest 3K map as well and it looks like convective sleet over DFW. It didn’t have much in the way of snowfall but when you look at the total snow accumulation map (which includes sleet) it certainly looks different than the 12 K Nam



Edit with referenced map, again probably sleet not snow for this model over dfw. Can’t get the skew-t to post because file name too long.

[harp]

You guys will be nowcasting soon enough!

[EnnisTx]

Okay, so my laptop is acting up so I can't get fancy and posts Skew-Ts and images so I'll have to explain in words. But the 0z 3 Km NAM absolutely wallops DFW. Now if you go and look at a snowfall map you probably won't see much, and if you look at the radar it just shows up as rain. But again, I must hammer in the potential for Latent Heat Absorption. When the 3Km NAM is showing 35-50 dBZ bands passing through the Metroplex with surface temps around 34 and and small warm noses. I'd have to imagine that that would fall as heavy sleet or snow. Now what could throw a wrench in my prediction is if the 3Km already takes into account Latent Heat Absorption, but I'm not sure if it does and how well it does it. And of course it has to be right about the intensity of the precipitation.

I was just about to post this as I was looking at the 3K map and it looks like convective sleet over DFW. It didn’t have much in the way of snowfall but when you look at the total snow accumulation map (which includes sleet) it certainly looks different than the 12 K Nam



Edit with referenced map (again probably sleet not snow for this model over dfw)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020020400/nam3km_asnow_scus_61.png

I looked at this earlier and was thinking it's onto something. Glad you brought this up and explained it so well for everyone. If this were to happen, wallop would be a good word choice for sure!

[TropicalTundra]

Looks like a part of the front is already past the Red River heading to Falls! May determine whether or not we get a mix or snowmageddon!

[Quixotic]

February 2003?

[losf1981]

Looks like a part of the front is already past the Red River heading to Falls! May determine whether or not we get a mix or snowmageddon!

Looks like a part of the front is already past the Red River heading to Falls! May determine whether or not we get a mix or snowmageddon!

Still 60 degrees in WF as of 9:20pm

[Cerlin]

Winter Storm watch now issued for parts of DFW until 6 pm Wednesday.

[rwfromkansas]

Phone buzzed...Tarrant and Denton in watch now.

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy sleet possible initially with a transition over to
snow. Total sleet accumulations of up to 1 inch with an
additional 1 to 2 inches of snow possible.

* WHERE...Grayson, Denton, Parker and Tarrant Counties.

* WHEN...Late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Slick roads and bridges are expected in areas where
sleet and snow accumulates. Travel impacts are expected across
parts of the region.

[TheProfessor]

1 inch sleet accumulations isn't anything to joke about. I have to imagine the forecasters in Fortworth saw the 3Km NAM lol.

[Texas Snow]

Phone buzzed...Tarrant and Denton in watch now.

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy sleet possible initially with a transition over to
snow. Total sleet accumulations of up to 1 inch with an
additional 1 to 2 inches of snow possible.

* WHERE...Grayson, Denton, Parker and Tarrant Counties.

* WHEN...Late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Slick roads and bridges are expected in areas where
sleet and snow accumulates. Travel impacts are expected across
parts of the region.

Would think based on models and history that the next row of counties (Dallas Collin Fannin) will at least get a WWA by tomorrow afternoon if not included in the watch itself. Good sign.

[bubba hotep]

Winter Storm watch now issued for parts of DFW until 6 pm Wednesday.

Arrgh! Need one more county over

This is fun to watch, really wish that this was over the weekend so that the kids and I could load up the Sequoia and hit the road.

[HockeyTx82]

I think where I'm at is right on the cusp of getting dumped on again. But who knows. Also, all that pre-treatment they put down, at least here in Denton county I suspect it all washed off with the rain we had earlier.

[Quixotic]

Yay! Denton made the cut.

[EnnisTx]

1 inch sleet accumulations isn't anything to joke about. I have to imagine the forecasters in Fortworth saw the 3Km NAM lol.

Was just about to say good call on this. I thought the same thing as soon as the watch went up. Who knows FW NWS may have seen your post!

[bubba hotep]

Okay, so my laptop is acting up so I can't get fancy and posts Skew-Ts and images so I'll have to explain in words. But the 0z 3 Km NAM absolutely wallops DFW. Now if you go and look at a snowfall map you probably won't see much, and if you look at the radar it just shows up as rain. But again, I must hammer in the potential for Latent Heat Absorption. When the 3Km NAM is showing 35-50 dBZ bands passing through the Metroplex with surface temps around 34 and and small warm noses. I'd have to imagine that that would fall as heavy sleet or snow. Now what could throw a wrench in my prediction is if the 3Km already takes into account Latent Heat Absorption, but I'm not sure if it does and how well it does it. And of course it has to be right about the intensity of the precipitation.

If the 00z 3k NAM plays out then DFW will get 2 - 3 hours of a pounding.

Convective elements moving through DFW



Very strong frontogenesis moving through with strong SW flow



Strongest omega within the DGZ and a very close to snow sounding, so it wouldn't take much to overcome the temps (or even better, we come in colder and it is just explosive snow!)



Boom

[Brent]

Winter Storm watch now issued for parts of DFW until 6 pm Wednesday.

Arrgh! Need one more county over

This is fun to watch, really wish that this was over the weekend so that the kids and I could load up the Sequoia and hit the road.

Yeah I really wish this would just dump on the metro because as much as I'm talking about chasing I really wanna finally see this in the stupid metro lol

[Portastorm]

Porta? What say you, oh Jedi Master of The Snowy South Austin Tauntaun Range? Where is Champ?

Champ is ready for action! But I’m concerned about what I see as a lack of moisture for our area. We may get a little wintry mix with light rain but I’m just not seeing much beyond that.

Big story will be to our NW, methinks.

[bubba hotep]

The front is through the Falls and Pauls Valley, 53F in the Falls & 63F in Decatur, 48F in Pauls Valley & 63F in Ardmore :onthemove:

[Texas Snow]

Would think based on models and history that the next row of counties (Dallas Collin Fannin) will at least get a WWA by tomorrow afternoon if not included in the watch itself. Good sign.

GFS says I am wrong about this. I would trust the Hi-Res over global at this point but just to show not all is certain

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS with a northwest shift in the frozen precip axis...now looks close to the Euro.