Texas Winter 2019-2020

[CaptinCrunch]

Just watched Pete Delkus channel 8 and he acted as if he just found out that Tarrant, Parker and Denton had been added to the watch. His maps showed only a dusting of snow.

I'm not a Delkus fan, he hypes to much and then back tracks to save face. I do like Kelee though!

[Texas Snow]

I would expect school closures Wednesday for sure if the freezing rain sets in early on Wednesday morning.

when it’s time for schools to make the call Wednesday morning it may still be a cold rain. My guess is if there are winter storm watches for heavy sleet that’s supposed to be coming within the next few hours, many schools are going to cancel based on that near term forecast rather than send kids to school and risk them not being able to get home safely.

Again that’s just guessing what they might do if things keep trending this way, but I don’t think for most of the metroplex that at the time they have to make the call between 5 and 6 AM that much will have happened just yet

[Cerlin]

The RGEM has recently become one of my (and Arctic Thunder's) favorite short range forecast models. It tends to perform quite well and not bust very much...especially with regards to winter weather.

Which is concerning to me because that’s the short range model that’s showing the least amount of stuff for DFW.

[Texas Snow]

Just watched Pete Delkus channel 8 and he acted as if he just found out that Tarrant, Parker and Denton had been added to the watch. His maps showed only a dusting of snow.

I didn’t get that take it all. Yes He said a dusting of snow but if you listen he was talking about thunder sleet and quick accumulations. He even said that the winter storm watch could be moved over to Dallas and Collin County’s he thought. I think that forecast generally agrees with many of the Hi-Rez models that even now do not show DFW with much snow (although I don’t like the info that South Texas storms just posted about the RGEM since it doesn’t show what we want)

Speaking of that, WHERE IS ARCTIC THUNDER?

[CaptinCrunch]

Frontal timing will be key, if earlier we could get to the 32-33 make by 3-4am Wednesday morning, just need elevated surfaces to crust over for the ISD's to throw in the towel

[EnnisTx]

The RGEM has recently become one of my (and Arctic Thunder's) favorite short range forecast models. It tends to perform quite well and not bust very much...especially with regards to winter weather.

Which is concerning to me because that’s the short range model that’s showing the least amount of stuff for DFW.

It hasn't had many chances to bust. Very few events for any of us in a long time.

[South Texas Storms]

The RGEM has recently become one of my (and Arctic Thunder's) favorite short range forecast models. It tends to perform quite well and not bust very much...especially with regards to winter weather.

Which is concerning to me because that’s the short range model that’s showing the least amount of stuff for DFW.

It hasn't had many chances to bust. Very few events for any of us in a long time.

Yeah I'm talking about across all other parts of the U.S. and Canada. You know I don't only forecast for TX

[EnnisTx]

Just watched Pete Delkus channel 8 and he acted as if he just found out that Tarrant, Parker and Denton had been added to the watch. His maps showed only a dusting of snow.

I didn’t get that take it all. Yes He said a dusting of snow but if you listen he was talking about thunder sleet and quick accumulations. He even said that the winter storm watch could be moved over to Dallas and Collin County’s he thought. I think that forecast generally agrees with many of the Hi-Rez models that even now do not show DFW with much snow (although I don’t like the info that South Texas storms just posted about the RGEM since it doesn’t show what we want)

Speaking of that, WHERE IS ARCTIC THUNDER?

That's exactly what he said and I guess it was more surprising to me that he was caught off guard by the watch expansion. Kind of a loopy forecast.

PS. Not buying the RGEM story

[South Texas Storms]

Just watched Pete Delkus channel 8 and he acted as if he just found out that Tarrant, Parker and Denton had been added to the watch. His maps showed only a dusting of snow.

I didn’t get that take it all. Yes He said a dusting of snow but if you listen he was talking about thunder sleet and quick accumulations. He even said that the winter storm watch could be moved over to Dallas and Collin County’s he thought. I think that forecast generally agrees with many of the Hi-Rez models that even now do not show DFW with much snow (although I don’t like the info that South Texas storms just posted about the RGEM since it doesn’t show what we want)

Speaking of that, WHERE IS ARCTIC THUNDER?

Unfortunately he waved the towel for winter weather chances here in Houston long ago. But I'll try to get him to come in here and post from time to time.

[rwfromkansas]

I have seen shifts right before go the wrong way so that RGEM looks awful. Hope it’s wrong, as even west of DFW wouldn’t get much unless you go way west.

[SnowintheFalls]

Local mets here in the Falls are talking about anywhere from 5 to 12 inches. I figured these crazy totals for us would have decreased on the models by now. I wish it would spread out instead of just shifting toward the DFW area so we can all get in on the fun!

Kevin sele just basically poopoo’d on the whole event on the 10pm weather. Calls for mostly sleet due to a warm layer of air. Doesn’t think it will be much and over by noon Wednesday

I am definitely not expecting the craziness that has been forecast so far. I am still holding out hope for some wintry weather though. I've learned from this board especially that it's easier to believe your eyes than a weather forecast in Texas!

[Cerlin]

Which is concerning to me because that’s the short range model that’s showing the least amount of stuff for DFW.

It hasn't had many chances to bust. Very few events for any of us in a long time.

Yeah I'm talking about across all other parts of the U.S. and Canada. You know I don't only forecast for TX

That’s why I tend to trust you more than just about anyone!

[Texas Snow]

It hasn't had many chances to bust. Very few events for any of us in a long time.

Yeah I'm talking about across all other parts of the U.S. and Canada. You know I don't only forecast for TX

That’s why I tend to trust you more than just about anyone!

Yeah, why don’t we close down the forum for about an hour tomorrow with the only posting allowed to be by co-workers WxMan57, South Texas Storms and Arctic Thunder arguing about the storm, with graphics to state their case. Wouldn’t that be something??? I may learn more about forecasting in an in an hour than the previous 10 years.

Plus somebody would get bragging rights!

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah I'm talking about across all other parts of the U.S. and Canada. You know I don't only forecast for TX

That’s why I tend to trust you more than just about anyone!

Yeah, why don’t we close down the forum for about an hour tomorrow with the only posting allowed to be by co-workers WxMan57, South Texas Storms and Arctic Thunder arguing about the storm, with graphics to state their case. Wouldn’t that be something??? I may learn more about forecasting in an in an hour than the previous 10 years.

Plus somebody would get bragging rights!

Now that wouldn't be any fun...the forum thrives on yall too! Plus, I don't wanna embarrass wxman57 again

[Cerlin]

That’s why I tend to trust you more than just about anyone!

Yeah, why don’t we close down the forum for about an hour tomorrow with the only posting allowed to be by co-workers WxMan57, South Texas Storms and Arctic Thunder arguing about the storm, with graphics to state their case. Wouldn’t that be something??? I may learn more about forecasting in an in an hour than the previous 10 years.

Plus somebody would get bragging rights!

Now that wouldn't be any fun...the forum thrives on yall too! Plus, I don't wanna embarrass wxman57 again

His quietness about all of this is what’s keeping my hope alive for winter fun!

[EnnisTx]

That’s why I tend to trust you more than just about anyone!

Yeah, why don’t we close down the forum for about an hour tomorrow with the only posting allowed to be by co-workers WxMan57, South Texas Storms and Arctic Thunder arguing about the storm, with graphics to state their case. Wouldn’t that be something??? I may learn more about forecasting in an in an hour than the previous 10 years.

Plus somebody would get bragging rights!

Now that wouldn't be any fun...the forum thrives on yall too! Plus, I don't wanna embarrass wxman57 again

As he dropped the mic! LOL...

[EnnisTx]

Which is concerning to me because that’s the short range model that’s showing the least amount of stuff for DFW.

It hasn't had many chances to bust. Very few events for any of us in a long time.

Yeah I'm talking about across all other parts of the U.S. and Canada. You know I don't only forecast for TX

Makes sense! I thought maybe you were drinking the same thing I was.

[Texas Snow]

Local mets here in the Falls are talking about anywhere from 5 to 12 inches. I figured these crazy totals for us would have decreased on the models by now. I wish it would spread out instead of just shifting toward the DFW area so we can all get in on the fun!

Kevin sele just basically poopoo’d on the whole event on the 10pm weather. Calls for mostly sleet due to a warm layer of air. Doesn’t think it will be much and over by noon Wednesday

By the way, come back to us on this post storm. This is either going to be a ballsy accurate prediction against the mean or he will be laughed out of town. Can’t wait to see this one play out.

[Texas Snow]

Steve McCauley goes with less frozen precip in DFW metro that the NWS update of 2 hours ago just to keep the roller coaster of emotions going.

Also a little more info on how his stat method is run:

Rain showers will be with us on and off through tonight into tomorrow morning, and then our cold front sweeps through before lunchtime causing temperatures to fall into the 40s during the afternoon and down into the low to mid 30s by Wednesday morning (should stay ABOVE freezing for the eastern half of the immediate DFW area and just barely at or slightly below freezing for the west). With the temperature near freezing for the western half of the area, sleet, freezing rain, and snow still look likely for those areas while a cold rain with an occasional sleet pellet can be expected in eastern areas.

As mentioned yesterday, since we are still more than 24 hours away from the start of the winter precip, specific amounts cannot be accurately predicted. But even though specific amounts will have to wait until tomorrow's forecast, I can say - using the words I posted in yesterday's forecast - that amounts of winter precipitation look to be "TRIVIAL" (i.e., less than an inch) for most of the Metroplex, with the best - but not only - of the ice and snow to the west and northwest of the DFW area.

Although the precipitation will come to an end Wednesday night, temperatures will fall below freezing even in the heat island of the Metroplex by Thursday morning, so any standing water could freeze.

It should come as no surprise that the latest American Model this evening has now come around to what the Stat Method and nearly all other computer models from around the world have been predicting for the past several days: little to no snow for the Metroplex.

What a turnaround for the American Model! Going for up to a foot of snow in its forecast from just a couple of days ago to less than an inch with its latest outlook. Oddly, and as mentioned in yesterday's post, there never seemed to be data to indicate such a heavy snow event could occur, so it is unclear why that model was insisting this was going to be a snowpocalypse for DFW.

Now you know why the Stat Method completely rejected this scenario. Keep in mind, the Stat Method is NOT a computer model. It is simply a statistical analysis of ALL computer models from around the world, and it tries to tease out the most accurate forecast possible since no one model is consistently right all the time (and neither is the SM I admit).

But when one of those models is going for something so "out there" that it strains reason and accountability, the Stat Method gives that model a weight of ZERO in its contribution to the forecast and effectively gives it the boot, and thus it has ZERO impact on the outlook given by the Stat Method.

There now...having said all that....time for Mom to turn around and hit us all with a blizzard!

[Brent]

Yeah, why don’t we close down the forum for about an hour tomorrow with the only posting allowed to be by co-workers WxMan57, South Texas Storms and Arctic Thunder arguing about the storm, with graphics to state their case. Wouldn’t that be something??? I may learn more about forecasting in an in an hour than the previous 10 years.

Plus somebody would get bragging rights!

Now that wouldn't be any fun...the forum thrives on yall too! Plus, I don't wanna embarrass wxman57 again

His quietness about all of this is what’s keeping my hope alive for winter fun!

I will say its intriguing he hasn't killed our hopes yet...

but that Steve McCauley update was definitely not impressed