Texas Winter 2019-2020

[TheProfessor]

Wow, Southeast Texas panhandle has a 20" bullseye on the 0z Canadian using Kuchera.

[TheProfessor]

0z UkMet has trended southeast to just west of the Metro. Remember when it was up around Amarillo and Lubbock?

[Brent]

Snow everywhere but DFW

[somethingfunny]

As a general manager of a Domino's Pizza in Dallas, y'all are making my heart pound with anxiety.

I've gotta make some staffing decisions tomorrow I should bring in extra people Wednesday anyway with a cold rain forecast, but if schools cancel.... Yikes!!

I'm not anticipating anything frozen impacting the roads in Dallas during the day or dinnertime Wednesday and I think I'm going to put my money on that call. More concerned about Thursday morning if anything.

[Ralph's Weather]

As a general manager of a Domino's Pizza in Dallas, y'all are making my heart pound with anxiety.

I've gotta make some staffing decisions tomorrow I should bring in extra people Wednesday anyway with a cold rain forecast, but if schools cancel.... Yikes!!

I'm not anticipating anything frozen impacting the roads in Dallas during the day or dinnertime Wednesday and I think I'm going to put my money on that call. More concerned about Thursday morning if anything.

Dallas could well start out with a glaze of freezing rain before daybreak tomorrow before transitioning to convective bands of heavy sleet during the day totaling around an inch which would make roads a disaster. Then a transition to a bit of snow before it all moves out. I expect all of DFW to fall under a winter storm warning later today with advisories for eastern N TX.

[Ralph's Weather]

Which is concerning to me because that’s the short range model that’s showing the least amount of stuff for DFW.

It hasn't had many chances to bust. Very few events for any of us in a long time.

Yeah I'm talking about across all other parts of the U.S. and Canada. You know I don't only forecast for TX

The RGEM is way off on this storm. The 0Z run is already over a 100 miles slow with the front by hour 7. The NAMs and WRFs are just about spot on with the frontal timing. RGEM occasionally hits, but it whiffs way too often for me to trust it when it is an outlier. It had a big win 4 or 5 years ago on a storm down here so I started paying attention to it, since that storm years ago it has been bad on most all systems since.

[South Texas Storms]

It hasn't had many chances to bust. Very few events for any of us in a long time.

Yeah I'm talking about across all other parts of the U.S. and Canada. You know I don't only forecast for TX

The RGEM is way off on this storm. The 0Z run is already over a 100 miles slow with the front by hour 7. The NAMs and WRFs are just about spot on with the frontal timing. RGEM occasionally hits, but it whiffs way too often for me to trust it when it is an outlier. It had a big win 4 or 5 years ago on a storm down here so I started paying attention to it, since that storm years ago it has been bad on most all systems since.

It's sometimes off on temperatures, but it usually does a pretty good job with precipitation. And the 6z HRRR precipitation placement looks very similar to the RGEM.

[TheProfessor]

I'll never forget the RGEM being the only high resolution model showing the 2nd storm in March 2015 over producing like it actually did. It did have a few busts for me while I was up in Ohio, but then again, quite a few models did on those storms as well lol.

[TheProfessor]

3Km NAM is a huge step in the wrong direction for DFW. It has a much larger and deeper warm nose during the heaviest precipitation, which is going to make it very difficult to get enough latent heat absorption to cool the column. Certainly not what you want to see.

[gpsnowman]

3Km NAM is a huge step in the wrong direction for DFW. It has a much larger and deeper warm nose during the heaviest precipitation, which is going to make it very difficult to get enough latent heat absorption to cool the column. Certainly not what you want to see.

Cold rain here we go!!!!!!!

[South Texas Storms]

3Km NAM is a huge step in the wrong direction for DFW. It has a much larger and deeper warm nose during the heaviest precipitation, which is going to make it very difficult to get enough latent heat absorption to cool the column. Certainly not what you want to see.

Yep, and the 6z GFS continues to trend warmer for DFW too. It's looking increasingly likely that the heaviest snow axis will extend from just south of Lubbock to near Wichita Falls to OKC.

[gpsnowman]

3Km NAM is a huge step in the wrong direction for DFW. It has a much larger and deeper warm nose during the heaviest precipitation, which is going to make it very difficult to get enough latent heat absorption to cool the column. Certainly not what you want to see.

Yep, and the 6z GFS continues to trend warmer for DFW too. It's looking increasingly likely that the heaviest snow axis will extend from just south of Lubbock to near Wichita Falls to OKC.

It's really sad that an arctic front cant even get us down to 32 anymore.

[Ralph's Weather]

3Km NAM is a huge step in the wrong direction for DFW. It has a much larger and deeper warm nose during the heaviest precipitation, which is going to make it very difficult to get enough latent heat absorption to cool the column. Certainly not what you want to see.

Yep, and the 6z GFS continues to trend warmer for DFW too. It's looking increasingly likely that the heaviest snow axis will extend from just south of Lubbock to near Wichita Falls to OKC.

It's really sad that an arctic front cant even get us down to 32 anymore.

This is not the classic 1045 big -EPO Arctic high sitting over Kansas. This high is centered over the Colorado Rockies. This event is driven by a huge upper trough driving south. There is very strong SW flow ahead of this trough. Under the trough the mid levels will cool tremendously but the opposing action to that is warmth ahead of the trough. This event just looks to be based too far west. We're were tempted by the SE shifts. DFW could still see instincts impactful sleet but likely there will be a significant west to east gradient with the east side being a lot of rain and FW being an inch or two of sleet and snow. There is still time for shifts so stay aware even on the east side.

RGEM is the most aggressive model for tomorrow night.

[TheProfessor]

Starting to look like it could be one of those all time memorable events for the Falls. GFS drops 20 inches of snow near that area.

[Ralph's Weather]

It is interesting watching the difference in how the American and Canadian models handle the mid levels. Generally the Canadian models seem to indicate more cohesive features at 700 and 850mb tomorrow and tomorrow night.

[gpsnowman]

Yep, and the 6z GFS continues to trend warmer for DFW too. It's looking increasingly likely that the heaviest snow axis will extend from just south of Lubbock to near Wichita Falls to OKC.

It's really sad that an arctic front cant even get us down to 32 anymore.

This is not the classic 1045 big -EPO Arctic high sitting over Kansas. This high is centered over the Colorado Rockies. This event is driven by a huge upper trough driving south. There is very strong SW flow ahead of this trough. Under the trough the mid levels will cool tremendously but the opposing action to that is warmth ahead of the trough. This event just looks to be based too far west. We're were tempted by the SE shifts. DFW could still see instincts impactful sleet but likely there will be a significant west to east gradient with the east side being a lot of rain and FW being an inch or two of sleet and snow. There is still time for shifts so stay aware even on the east side.

RGEM is the most aggressive model for tomorrow night.

Oh I know. Just some early morning cranky negativity thats all. I do feel we will see some good sleet followed by some flurries later on Wednesday.

[wxman57]

Overnight trend with the GFS is definitely farther west with the frozen precip (i.e., west of D-FW). Euro remains about the same (similar to the GFS), but keeps the frozen precip west of the D-FW Metroplex. Setup is not similar to what you saw with the frozen precip 2-3 weeks ago when DFW recorded a trace of snow. That said the forecast sounding over D-FW indicates it will be a very close call. It indicates some sleet, but only a degree or two colder could mean measurable snow. As I said before, FTW has a much better shot of seeing at least some snow than Dallas. Temps may remain above 32F during the precip.

[Cerlin]

I’m disappointed because for a while this looked super promising and now it’s pretty much indicated that DFW will have cold rain. That being said, WF to Lubbock looks to have a real shot at one of their best storms this century, so let’s hope it all goes to plan there too!

[TropicalTundra]

NWS really did place the Winter Storm Watch farther east, even including DFW and FW into the mix. Also placed the snow farther south in their forecast to where I live (Bell County). How much farther can it go?

EDIT: If needed. https://www.weather.gov/fwd/

[EnnisTx]

Looks like the front is between Decatur 44' and Alliance Airport at 63 degrees and they're about 20 miles apart.