Texas Winter 2019-2020

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2501 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:33 am

Welp, we have a Margaret Hamilton Nose forming tomorrow morning for DFW....not good, fun model watching run but I believe it's time to throw in the towel for Tarrant/Dallas/Collin. Moving on to the next one, EPO tank with an extreme - PNA; additional ice storm potential over the next few weeks ??

Image
Last edited by orangeblood on Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2502 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:33 am

It was always a very borderline setup for DFW. The 3k NAM is even cutting back totals in the favored areas up towards Wichita Falls and going with more sleet and freezing rain.
0 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

rwfromkansas
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2627
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
Location: North Fort Worth

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2503 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:35 am

So the model WRF showing all the snow yesterday for DFW is going WAY west today. If I see iweathernet/Chris Robbins on FB get excited, I will get excited. He usually is pretty spot-on but only posts for big events.
0 likes   

WacoWx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 664
Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:14 pm
Location: NOT Waco, TX ----> Dallas, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2504 Postby WacoWx » Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:36 am

Is the airmass behind the front not as cold as previously thought? I feel like with the front being ahead of schedule (if it actually is), DFW would be looking better, not worse.

Something doesn't make sense to my small weather brain.
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalTundra
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 703
Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:56 pm
Location: Temple, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2505 Postby TropicalTundra » Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:39 am

Front is now in NW Central TX as the winds are starting to flip north. Quite early i think :think:
1 likes   
Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation

Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?

All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.

rwfromkansas
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2627
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
Location: North Fort Worth

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2506 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:40 am

NWS was talking of the front coming into DFW around noon, so at least it is early.
1 likes   

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2540
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2507 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:41 am

And if my memory is correct we have had major busts "last minute real time now casting changes" for severe weather too. Either the storms are nothing when the worst is forecast or way over produce when nothing was expected. I don't think mother nature cares what the models are saying. Funny how we can't even get a forecast 100% right 2-3 days out yet people are telling us for sure that in x years this or that will happen with scientific certainty........
1 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2508 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:41 am

WacoWx wrote:Is the airmass behind the front not as cold as previously thought? I feel like with the front being ahead of schedule (if it actually is), DFW would be looking better, not worse.

Something doesn't make sense to my small weather brain.


Warm air advection in the lower levels was underdone...eroding the cold air much more than previously forecast. Always a risk with marginal cold fronts like this one
0 likes   

User avatar
Cerlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1182
Age: 23
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:06 am
Location: Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2509 Postby Cerlin » Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:44 am

Yeah one of the things I was worried about with a faster FROPA is the higher chance for cold air dissipation.
1 likes   
Graduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma!
All opinions independent of employers and the university.

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2510 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:46 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:And if my memory is correct we have had major busts "last minute real time now casting changes" for severe weather too. Either the storms are nothing when the worst is forecast or way over produce when nothing was expected. I don't think mother nature cares what the models are saying. Funny how we can't even get a forecast 100% right 2-3 days out yet people are telling us for sure that in x years this or that will happen with scientific certainty........


It truly is laughable...polar ice caps forecasted doom yet here we are with a 12 yr high in Sea Ice coverage and CO2 still increasing hmmmm??
2 likes   

User avatar
Cerlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1182
Age: 23
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:06 am
Location: Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2511 Postby Cerlin » Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:56 am

Just remember folks, climate is different than weather. :D
0 likes   
Graduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma!
All opinions independent of employers and the university.

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2512 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:00 am

Cerlin wrote:Just remember folks, climate is different than weather. :D


haha classic!!
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2513 Postby Portastorm » Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:06 am

orangeblood wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Just remember folks, climate is different than weather. :D


haha classic!!


I sense this dialogue heading into an undesirable area. Let's go back to talking about the weather and how Wichita Falls and Abilene will get awesome winter weather and the rest of us will just live vicariously through webcams in those places. :wink:
6 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
TeamPlayersBlue
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3445
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
Location: Denver/Applewood, CO

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2514 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:08 am

orangeblood wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:And if my memory is correct we have had major busts "last minute real time now casting changes" for severe weather too. Either the storms are nothing when the worst is forecast or way over produce when nothing was expected. I don't think mother nature cares what the models are saying. Funny how we can't even get a forecast 100% right 2-3 days out yet people are telling us for sure that in x years this or that will happen with scientific certainty........


It truly is laughable...polar ice caps forecasted doom yet here we are with a 12 yr high in Sea Ice coverage and CO2 still increasing hmmmm??

Yeah we have a long way to go for sea ice growth. Problem is the melting during the summer. It's so high, we can gain it back for the winter.

With that said, DFW area, youre only a couple degrees off from this becoming a snow event. It's really close to freezing in some layers of the atmosphere. Still possible you will get lots of snow out of this.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
somethingfunny
ChatStaff
ChatStaff
Posts: 3926
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
Location: McKinney, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2515 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:08 am

rwfromkansas wrote:NWS was talking of the front coming into DFW around noon, so at least it is early.


The graphic on NWS FWD website shows the front in DFW between 9 and 10 so we're maybe 30-60 minutes ahead of schedule, nothing crazy. We've dropped 15 degrees in the 15 minutes it took me to drive from the Southeast side of White Rock Lake to the northwest side.
0 likes   
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.

DFW Stormwatcher
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 240
Age: 54
Joined: Sun Dec 27, 2009 10:35 pm
Location: Keller, Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2516 Postby DFW Stormwatcher » Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:12 am

Portastorm wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Just remember folks, climate is different than weather. :D


haha classic!!


I sense this dialogue heading into an undesirable area. Let's go back to talking about the weather and how Wichita Falls and Abilene will get awesome winter weather and the rest of us will just live vicariously through webcams in those places. :wink:


Thank You Porta,

The forum was starting to get pretty dark there.
1 likes   
Disclaimer: This is not an official weather forecast. I am only an amateur weather enthusiast therefore any weather forecasts or opinions should be taken with a grain of salt. Hook em Horns!

User avatar
Cerlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1182
Age: 23
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:06 am
Location: Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2517 Postby Cerlin » Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:15 am

I left my house about 2 hours ago, it has since dropped from the 50s to 46 degrees, so I’d definitely say the front is knocking on our doorstep.
0 likes   
Graduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma!
All opinions independent of employers and the university.

User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4080
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2518 Postby gboudx » Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:22 am

In a rush this morning, I forgot about this front and didn't wear a jacket. It's gonna be a long, cold walk to my truck when it's quitting time.
2 likes   

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3185
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2519 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:28 am

orangeblood wrote:Welp, we have a Margaret Hamilton Nose forming tomorrow morning for DFW....not good, fun model watching run but I believe it's time to throw in the towel for Tarrant/Dallas/Collin. Moving on to the next one, EPO tank with an extreme - PNA; additional ice storm potential over the next few weeks ??

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/4indices.png

Yep. Not punting on February. We even get an extra day this month!!!! Look out for mid to late month for the next big chance.
1 likes   

rwfromkansas
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2627
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
Location: North Fort Worth

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2520 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:39 am

Wish the NAO was better, but other things look good in that forecast.
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests