Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Brent]

Think I'm gonna head up to Wichita Falls tonight after work not gonna hang around here for maybe a stray flake lol

[Ralph's Weather]

HRRR in with the big SE shift. It has a much less substantial warm nose tomorrow for DFW compared to other models and especially to the NAM.

I think this is largely due to the swiftness of the frontal passage and the slight temperature bust, of which the HRRR is just now starting to pick up on

NAM also with the SE shift, take anything after the previous trend.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z NAM 12km (Around Snyder) vs 18Z NAM 3km (Around Abilene) are vastly different in where the max snow band will end up. 19Z HRRR is in between. 12Z RGEM is close to 18Z 12km NAM.

[gpsnowman]

Think I'm gonna head up to Wichita Falls tonight after work not gonna hang around here for maybe a stray flake lol

Man that is great. Hope you don't get stuck in a foot of snow!! I've always dreamed of doing something like that but have never done it. Hard to do with wife and kids She thinks I am nuts anyway, this would just add to it. Maybe on a weekend when a west Texas blizzard hits.

[wxman57]

Think I'm gonna head up to Wichita Falls tonight after work not gonna hang around here for maybe a stray flake lol

Hope you find your snow, Brent. Post pics.

[Portastorm]

Think I'm gonna head up to Wichita Falls tonight after work not gonna hang around here for maybe a stray flake lol

Atta boy ... do it! And yes, send pics please.

[Cerlin]

Think I'm gonna head up to Wichita Falls tonight after work not gonna hang around here for maybe a stray flake lol

Save a flake for me!! Wishing you the best and hope the bullseye is right where you are.

[Ralph's Weather]

Think I'm gonna head up to Wichita Falls tonight after work not gonna hang around here for maybe a stray flake lol

Man that is great. Hope you don't get stuck in a foot of snow!! I've always dreamed of doing something like that but have never done it. Hard to do with wife and kids She thinks I am nuts anyway, this would just add to it. Maybe on a weekend when a west Texas blizzard hits.

I am waiting on a weekend snowstorm within a few hundred miles when we have no set plans to chase with my son. Timing never works out though.

[gboudx]

Think I'm gonna head up to Wichita Falls tonight after work not gonna hang around here for maybe a stray flake lol

Bring someone to have a snowball fight with. Otherwise, you'll get tired of throwing them straight up as you fight with yourself.

[Ralph's Weather]

Blizzard warning for mountains of West Texas where they could see a foot of snow with wind chills below 0.

[Haris]

I know I would def have traveled to WF if I lived in Dallas.

Good Luck Brent and smart call! Drive safe!!!!

[losf1981]

Think I'm gonna head up to Wichita Falls tonight after work not gonna hang around here for maybe a stray flake lol

You could do a lot worse than coming up to WF to see some snow. Suggest staying at the homewood as sikes lake backs up to it. Should make for some nice scenery.......for WF anyway.

[CaptinCrunch]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1234 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2020


TXZ091-100-101-115-116-129-050245-
/O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0001.200205T0600Z-200206T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0001.200205T0600Z-200206T0000Z/
Montague-Young-Jack-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Eastland-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro,
Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, and Gorman
1234 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy sleet expected. Some freezing rain and snow also
possible. Total sleet and snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Locations from Cisco to Graham to Bowie.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday. The heaviest
precipitation will fall from 2 AM to 10 AM.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Hazardous conditions
are expected to impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Poor travel conditions could continue into
Wednesday evening or even Thursday morning since temperatures
will remain near or below freezing. Refreezing of any uncleared
roadways would allow icy roads to continue.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Roads, bridges, and overpasses in the warning area will be very
hazardous, and possibly impassible. Travel is discouraged unless
it is an emergency. Keep an extra blanket, flashlight, food, and
water in your vehicle in case you become stranded.

The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at
drivetexas.org.

[CaptinCrunch]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1234 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2020


TXZ092-093-102-103-117-118-130-131-141-050245-
/O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0001.200205T0600Z-200206T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0002.200205T0600Z-200206T0000Z/
Cooke-Grayson-Wise-Denton-Parker-Tarrant-Erath-Hood-Comanche-
Including the cities of Gainesville, Sherman, Denison, Decatur,
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound,
Weatherford, Briar, Fort Worth, Arlington, Stephenville, Dublin,
Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Comanche, and De Leon
1234 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Sleet and freezing rain expected. Some snow is also
possible. Total sleet and snow accumulations of up to one inch
and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Locations along and west of a Hamilton to Fort Worth to
Sherman line.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slick road conditions, particularly bridges
and overpasses. The hazardous conditions could impact the
morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Below-freezing temperatures could allow
for refreezing on roadways through Wednesday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while driving. Bridges and overpasses
will be the first places that icy spots will develop. Do not slam
on the brakes when approaching an icy bridge or overpass. Instead,
maintain a constant safe speed and coast across the ice. If you
start to slide or skid, calmly steer in the direction of the skid
to straighten the vehicle out and regain control.

The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at
drivetexas.org.

[EnnisTx]

Think I'm gonna head up to Wichita Falls tonight after work not gonna hang around here for maybe a stray flake lol

Folks in the Falls should set up a road block on 287 at least 15 miles outside of town.

[Texas Snow]

Didn't realize this was out yet.


FXUS64 KFWD 042003
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
203 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2020


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 153 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2020/
/Through Wednesday Night/

The main adjustment to the forecast with the noon issuance was to
transition the Winter Storm Watch to a Warning/Advisory
configuration. We are generally expecting a heavy sleet event
across our west/northwest zones, although some snow and freezing
rain are also possible. The mixed bag of precipitation will
result in degraded travel conditions regardless of exact
amounts/types, which should be the main forecast takeaway.

A strong cold front has moved through a majority of the CWA this
afternoon, with only our southeastern zones still positioned
within the warm sector airmass. Previously, there had been some
concern that a strong storm or two could develop along the front
this afternoon, although it looks like this window of opportunity
is closing quickly. We`re in a lull in terms of dynamic ascent
from the upper trough, and the only lifting mechanism is the weak
convergence along the front itself. It appears this has been
insufficient to overcome some weak capping and meager low-level
lapse rates just ahead of the front.

We should remain in a precipitation lull through this evening
while temperatures continue to drop via CAA. By midnight, the
first of several upper impulses will eject northeastward from the
parent trough axis to our west. The approaching disturbances will
allow strong isentropic ascent to ensue above the 925/850mb
fronts. This will allow a band, or perhaps a few localized intense
bands of precip to develop and spread eastward into the forecast
area after midnight. Precipitation should begin as rain or a
rain/sleet mix, but should quickly become all sleet. A very sharp
warm nose will exist just above 850mb with a deep subfreezing
layer beneath, favoring refreezing of liquid droplets on their
journey to the surface. Initially, it`s possible that the warm
layer will host droplets too warm to freeze before reaching the
surface, in which case some freezing rain is possible with light
ice accumulations. Some of this precipitation will be convective
in nature, with isolated lightning strikes possible. The heavy
nature of precipitation will allow for rapid deterioration of road
conditions and quick accumulations regardless of precip type.

Towards daybreak, the warm layer aloft should finally be lifted
and adiabatically cooled sufficiently to support a transition to
snow, particularly across our far northwest, while other areas
still experience periods of sleet, rain, and freezing rain with a
transition zone occurring near the I-35 corridor. This wintry mix
will be the main story for the Advisory area, with more limited
impacts expected. Bridges and overpasses will likely experience
slick spots, and even some main roads could be impacted if
precipitation rates are high enough. Meanwhile, if a transition to
snow occurs earlier than currently anticipated, some higher
snowfall totals would be possible, particularly within the Winter
Storm Warning area. While 2-4 inches of a sleet/snow mix are
currently advertised in this area, a rapid snow transition could
see snowfall totals closer to 6" or more across our far west. East
of I-35 on the other hand, temperatures through the column will
generally only support a cold rain through the entire period, with
little chance for anything more than a few sleet pellets or
snowflakes later in the morning or towards midday.

Precipitation will trend northeastward through the day,
accompanying the shortwave. Some lingering lighter sleet/snow is
possible across portions of North Texas during this time, but the
heaviest precip should have ended. Temperatures lingering in the
low 30s west of I-35 will mean very little improvement in the way
of road conditions through the day, and evening commutes may
remain impacted in this Winter Storm Warning area.

Later Wednesday night, our attention will turn to the
south/southeast as the main trough axis slides through. This will
lead to one last round of ascent across our Central Texas zones
which could support elevated sleet or snow showers. However,
precipitation with this activity would be rather light, and no
impacts would be likely to occur should any precipitation be able
to fall at all. Also of note, temperatures will support
refreezing of any uncleared slushy roadways on Wednesday night,
with lows in the upper teens and low 20s expected west of I-35.
Lows will be in the upper 20s elsewhere.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... The strong weather system/cold front that brought
a round of winter weather to much of North Texas will begin to
move quickly eastward by Thursday with clear and cool conditions
expected Thursday. Generally quiet weather conditions are
expected through the weekend before becoming unsettled early next
week.

Gradual warming is expected to continue Friday and Saturday with
generally south to southwest winds. Another rain free and weak
surface front moves through N Texas Saturady with a reinforcing
surge of cool and drier air on Sunday. Rain chances increase late
Monday through Wednesday as return flow moisture and supporting
upper level dynamics suggest a better than average chance of
showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday.

KV.92

[rwfromkansas]

This is about the only time I miss living in the Midland/Odessa desert. They look to get a pretty decent snow. I did enjoy several good snow events when I lived there, though they haven't had a good one in years just like DFW. The elevation allows them to get snow at 546 thickness levels.

[EnnisTx]

18Z NAM 12km (Around Snyder) vs 18Z NAM 3km (Around Abilene) are vastly different in where the max snow band will end up. 19Z HRRR is in between. 12Z RGEM is close to 18Z 12km NAM.

That's around a 70 miles difference.

[HockeyTx82]

What was the SE shift that was mentioned last page? What shifted and by how much?

[Cerlin]

What was the SE shift that was mentioned last page? What shifted and by how much?

It was minimal but it was enough to be a shift