Texas Winter 2019-2020

[orangeblood]

Temperatures never rose like they were projected to. Stayed at 45 for my area. Does this mean we could anticipate much colder temperatures overnight or not much change?

Track the dew point, get those down to 29-30 range before precip moves through and it’s game on

That is one thing to watch but, as 57 pointed out, this isn't a particularly cold air mass. The freezing line hasn't moved much today, and I like to see it making steady progress southward. The 18z 3k NAM, RGEM and 12 TX Tech do still offer some thin hopes for DFW. All have marginal temps and it wouldn't take much to get the surface to freezing but warm air aloft will be hard to overcome unless deeper cold filters in faster.

Even the HRRR is 2-3 F too warm with dew points, this is probably what the FW NWS is noticing and reason for eastern boundary of advisory. No model is showing frozen precip in those eastern advisory counties

Actually, HRRR is beginning to trend East with frozen precip shield for sunrise tomorrow ...watch that model this evening for this trend

[TropicalTundra]

Track the dew point, get those down to 29-30 range before precip moves through and it’s game on

That is one thing to watch but, as 57 pointed out, this isn't a particularly cold air mass. The freezing line hasn't moved much today, and I like to see it making steady progress southward. The 18z 3k NAM, RGEM and 12 TX Tech do still offer some thin hopes for DFW. All have marginal temps and it wouldn't take much to get the surface to freezing but warm air aloft will be hard to overcome unless deeper cold filters in faster.

Even the HRRR is 2-3 F too warm with dew points, this is probably what the FW NWS is noticing and reason for eastern boundary of advisory. No model is showing frozen precip in those eastern advisory counties

Actually, HRRR is beginning to trend East with frozen precip shield for sunrise tomorrow ...watch that model this evening for this trend

Don’t worry because I sure will

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Current readings at my house in Richardson...




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[Cerlin]

Already at 43 degrees, it wasn’t supposed to be 43 until 10 pm here in frisco.

[TropicalTundra]

Already at 43 degrees, it wasn’t supposed to be 43 until 10 pm here in frisco.

Same here. It is 49F in Belton and was supposed to be that at 10pm.

[losf1981]

Freezing rain in WF. Starting earlier than expected

[Jarodm12]

It is 39 degrees here is Durant Oklahoma dewpoint of 36 and falling we have fallen two degrees within the last hour and wind gusts 21mph and a sustained north wind of 14 im starting to get excited, we are 11 hours from the event surely I can fall 7 degrees or have a wetbulb temperature thats supportive! And for now we are under a winter weather advisory however just 50 miles west of here in ardmore they are under at winter storm warning and are quite literally expecting sheets of ice to fall, its always ominous when you see that happening..

[funster]

It does seem a few degrees cooler than expected and the HRRR is looking better - although we've played this game before.

[Haris]

49 as of 645 down here in scenic southwest Austin.

[WacoWx]

Since there appears to be more moisture out west than originally thought, is there any way that translates to more moisture over DFW tomorrow evening?

The totals in midland keep going up.

[rwfromkansas]

Done this song and dance before of hoping it will be colder. Usually not a good bet.

But, IMBY it’s 42 with a 35.4 dew point. Dp is dropping relatively fast. Will see.

[orangeblood]

Done this song and dance before of hoping it will be colder. Usually not a good bet.

But, IMBY it’s 42 with a 35.4 dew point. Dp is dropping relatively fast. Will see.

DPs are falling fast and much quicker/lower than any model is showing, this could have big implications for when heavier precip comes through

[TropicalTundra]

Please, lord please. Just a inch.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Creeping down...





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[Jarodm12]

Ha wow i am down to 37 in north west Durant and a dewpoint of 34! This is faster way faster!

[wxman57]

Of course, if tomorrow doesn't pan out, the 18Z GFS indicates a 2-day ice storm across much of north Texas the 17th-18th. Sure, it starts at hour 294, but it HAS to be right THIS time.

[Haris]

I doubt anything really makes it to the ground but...

[mcallum177]

Look at GEFS member 11 on the 18z run ...hour 306-384 icing Texas.

Of course, if tomorrow doesn't pan out, the 18Z GFS indicates a 2-day ice storm across much of north Texas the 17th-18th. Sure, it starts at hour 294, but it HAS to be right THIS time.

[TropicalTundra]

Starting to see the storm west of us in the Midland/Odessa area. Hopefully it stays put so the CTX / NTX area can cool down before it arrives

[orangeblood]

32F DP sits just NW of Ft Worth to Denton to Sherman at this time, about 4-5 hrs ahead of the HRRR forecast