Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Ralph's Weather]

I wonder if anyone will see lake effect flurries this morning, seems like conditions are right.

[Tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 061127
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
527 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

MVFR CIGs will linger through the next few hours, then skies
become clear by around noon today. Breezy northwesterly winds are
expected through the afternoon hours with gusts of 20 to 25kts,
then decreasing after sunset. Once the VFR conditions begin this
afternoon, they will continue through at least tomorrow.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 410 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020/...

.SHORT TERM...
As of 3 AM, the shower activity has exited to our east leaving
behind cloudy skies and chilly temperatures. The mostly cloudy
skies will linger through the late morning to early afternoon
hours, but then rapid clearing is expected during the afternoon
from west to east as high pressure builds to our west. Breezy
northwesterly flow will continue through the afternoon with
sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts up to 20mph. The winds
will be strongest along the coast with lighter winds inland, but
still breezy. This cool northwesterly flow will mean temperatures
will struggle to get out of the low 50s this afternoon. Montgomery
County and areas to the north may not even get out of upper 40s.
Clearing skies tomorrow night will mean another chilly night is in
store with much of the region dipping back down in the the mid to
upper 30s, with some subfreezing temperatures possible up in
Houston County. Overall, Friday is looking like fantastic weather.
Increasing heights due to the building high pressure and a more
southwesterly flow on Friday will lead to temperatures rebounding
with high temperatures back into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Fowler

.LONG TERM...(Fri Night through Thursday)
Friday night will start out clear but clouds will return after
midnight as low level moisture begins to increase in response to a
tightening pressure gradient and developing low pressure over west
central Texas. The area of low pressure becomes elongated into a
weak surface trough on Saturday and PW values increase to around
an inch by afternoon. The combination of a the surface trough and
moisture should yield a few showers in the afternoon and
evening. Temperatures will remain near steady or slowly warm
Saturday night as moderate south winds bring warmer and
increasingly humid air to the region.

Sunday will be considerably warmer and 850 mb temperatures support
surface temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Fcst soundings show
two distinct saturated layers with the sfc-700 mb layer saturated,
with very dry air between 700-500 mb and then saturated from
500-300 mb. PW values in crease to 1.45 inches in the afternoon
and weak capping near 700 mb begins to erode. Jet dynamics also
look favorable with a weakly splitting jet and SE TX lying in a
weak LFQ. Models are not generating much QPF but there looks like
enough ingredients in place for scattered showers and
thunderstorms so bumped PoPs up to 30-40 percent.

Models begin to diverge Sunday night and Monday with regard to how
quickly a cold front moves through SE TX and if/where the cold
front may stall. The GFS is more aggressive than ECMWF in pushing
the front into the coastal waters with isentropic upglide bringing
SE TX periods of light rain and colder temperatures. The ECMWF
stalls the front and brings periods of showers and storms with
temperatures remaining mild. Both models are similar with the
timing of bringing a strong upper level trough into Baja CA on
Monday and moving this feature east through Tuesday night. The
combination of the front and lift from the upper low/SW upper flow
should keep things unsettled through mid week so high PoPS seem
justified. As for temperatures, just split the difference for now
and will await some consensus to form. Another cold front will
cross SE TX Thursday night or Friday with another chance of
showers and storms with the fropa. 43


.MARINE...

Moderate to strong offshore flow will continue through this
afternoon in the wake of yesterday`s cold front. A small craft
advisory has been issued for all Bays and Gulf waters through 6 AM,
then the Bays transition to caution flags through 6pm this
evening while the Gulf waters remain in an advisory. These
highlights may need to be extended into tonight, especially for
the Gulf waters off of Galveston Bay, but the flow transitions to
a light southwesterly flow after midnight tonight ending the
hazards. High pressure builds in on Friday and will continue
through the weekend resulting in light onshore flow.

The moderate to strong offshore flow today will lead to low tides to
be much below normal (around -1.0 to -1.5 feet below Mean Low Level
Water (MLLW)). So, a Low Water Advisory has been issued for
Galveston Bay today. Around one foot below MLLW, areas of bare
ground begin to appear in the upper reaches of the ship channel.
Once we get to around two feet below MLLW, then bare ground begins
to appear around Morgan`s Point and Manchester. Low Tide at
Manchester is around 12:37pm today. Low water may again be an issue
for tomorrow.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 51 34 67 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 51 37 68 51 70 / 0 0 0 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 53 48 67 58 68 / 0 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Low Water Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this
evening for the following zones: Galveston Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

[Portastorm]

Well South Texas Storms, in terms of accurate models for this event for my part of the state ... the RGEM delivered. You were right. Both the RGEM and the Euro were the only models to accurately capture what occurred in south central Texas. King Euro and Prince RGEM reign.

I'm taken aback by the fact that it has snowed in Austin three times in the last two years. Now, the snowfalls haven't amounted to much but some eye candy but heck ... beggars can't be choosers. Now we need to get our Metroplex friends the snow they are desperate for!

[Ralph's Weather]

RGEM nailed last night. It showed the band up here focusing between Dallas and Tyler while most models had the band south of Tyler. It was also the most aggressive with precip coverage.

[Cerlin]

It was easy to doubt the Euro because it wasn’t the greatest result for some, but it definitely reaffirmed itself as king. It doesn’t rudely tease like the GFS

[Cerlin]

Looking forward, the GFS is showing signs of a storm around the 17th. Occasionally it has been ice, but there is a front plunging down along with some pretty substantial moisture. The 6z shows the front as too weak but if there was a more progressive trough with more and deeper cold air we could see a major storm for TX.

[wxman57]

Light snow falling at the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County at 10:30 pm!

Shhhh, wxman57 will turn off the chillers and cancel winter.


Congrats on getting in on the fun

I wonder how the wall is going

FYI - I went to bed early last night (9:30) and forgot to have the border agent at the southern wall (along the TX/OK border) shut the door. This allowed enough cold air into the state for Austin to see some snow. It won't happen again!

[dhweather]

Congrats to all that got snow today! For some Feb living up to it's name.

For DFW proper today has just about summed up the past 5 years in a nutshell...cruel screw job .

I’ve just come to expect it. Model maps and forecast quotes get posted, I just stay a nowcast person with a weather rock. It keeps me sane.

When it comes to wintry precip - I become a Missourian - show me the sleet/snow, then I might believe it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Congrats to those who saw snow last night! I was blessed with 5 minutes of largest hail ive seen here. Was a bit bigger than pea sized.

[weatherdude1108]

My weather station this morning showed snow in the forecast for the first time, after the fact
lol. I guess the internal forecasting algorithm (based on local barometric pressure at my house) was behind.lol. Fun night and morning!

[rwfromkansas]

Well, bummed in DFW but honestly I’m just thrilled we had something to watch and western north TX had a major storm. Added a lot of pages. Hopefully the pattern will deliver again later in the month. We just need the trough to go a bit east. That SE ridge needs to weaken a bit.

[South Texas Storms]

Well South Texas Storms, in terms of accurate models for this event for my part of the state ... the RGEM delivered. You were right. Both the RGEM and the Euro were the only models to accurately capture what occurred in south central Texas. King Euro and Prince RGEM reign.

I'm taken aback by the fact that it has snowed in Austin three times in the last two years. Now, the snowfalls haven't amounted to much but some eye candy but heck ... beggars can't be choosers. Now we need to get our Metroplex friends the snow they are desperate for!

I was just coming on here to post this Porta! The Euro definitely nailed this event here several days in advance while being remarkably consistent. The RGEM also picked up on it a few days in advance...impressive. I'm glad this event overperformed like these models indicated across central TX...love it when that happens!

[Brent]

So... When's the next one

43 pages in the last 5 days!!!

My winter in the last month:

Saw snow on vacation
Went snow chasing

All that's left is the great DFW snowstorm

(last winter I never saw snow even on vacation and a chase never iined up) so its still an improvement

[MSUDawg]

Well South Texas Storms, in terms of accurate models for this event for my part of the state ... the RGEM delivered. You were right. Both the RGEM and the Euro were the only models to accurately capture what occurred in south central Texas. King Euro and Prince RGEM reign.

I'm taken aback by the fact that it has snowed in Austin three times in the last two years. Now, the snowfalls haven't amounted to much but some eye candy but heck ... beggars can't be choosers. Now we need to get our Metroplex friends the snow they are desperate for!

YES!!!! I NEEEED SNOWWWWW. Real snow. Inches.. PLllllleasee
Even the "snow" most saw in Jan here in DFW I was down in Comfort and missed out on.
I don't want to see 2 inches of ice again but come back Feb of 2011... or even this mythical Feb of what was it 08? I keep hearing about.. just before I moved here.

The wife won't let us go on vacation to anywhere with snow.. so I'm stuck watching the models.. and slipping on my butt when lucy pulls the football.. even though I've learned to hold out until within 48 hours.. but my heart doesn't listen to the brain...and I run towards that football.. IT"S GONNNNNNAAAAA SNOOOOOOOWWW...whooosh..whiff... nothing.

Though when I saw the Austin news I came looking for your post... so happy you got to enjoy a splash of that stuff.

[MSUDawg]

This was an interesting tweet about yesterdays system (at least to me)
 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1225100264555864064

[Brent]

Well South Texas Storms, in terms of accurate models for this event for my part of the state ... the RGEM delivered. You were right. Both the RGEM and the Euro were the only models to accurately capture what occurred in south central Texas. King Euro and Prince RGEM reign.

I'm taken aback by the fact that it has snowed in Austin three times in the last two years. Now, the snowfalls haven't amounted to much but some eye candy but heck ... beggars can't be choosers. Now we need to get our Metroplex friends the snow they are desperate for!

YES!!!! I NEEEED SNOWWWWW. Real snow. Inches.. PLllllleasee
Even the "snow" most saw in Jan here in DFW I was down in Comfort and missed out on.
I don't want to see 2 inches of ice again but come back Feb of 2011... or even this mythical Feb of what was it 08? I keep hearing about.. just before I moved here.

The wife won't let us go on vacation to anywhere with snow.. so I'm stuck watching the models.. and slipping on my butt when lucy pulls the football.. even though I've learned to hold out until within 48 hours.. but my heart doesn't listen to the brain...and I run towards that football.. IT"S GONNNNNNAAAAA SNOOOOOOOWWW...whooosh..whiff... nothing.

Though when I saw the Austin news I came looking for your post... so happy you got to enjoy a splash of that stuff.

February 11, 2010, I wasn't here then either but a foot in DFW 10 years next week heck even March 2015 when we saw 3-4 inches(the last real snow)...

It seems unfathomable now when we can't even get a half inch

[MSUDawg]

Well South Texas Storms, in terms of accurate models for this event for my part of the state ... the RGEM delivered. You were right. Both the RGEM and the Euro were the only models to accurately capture what occurred in south central Texas. King Euro and Prince RGEM reign.

I'm taken aback by the fact that it has snowed in Austin three times in the last two years. Now, the snowfalls haven't amounted to much but some eye candy but heck ... beggars can't be choosers. Now we need to get our Metroplex friends the snow they are desperate for!

YES!!!! I NEEEED SNOWWWWW. Real snow. Inches.. PLllllleasee
Even the "snow" most saw in Jan here in DFW I was down in Comfort and missed out on.
I don't want to see 2 inches of ice again but come back Feb of 2011... or even this mythical Feb of what was it 08? I keep hearing about.. just before I moved here.

The wife won't let us go on vacation to anywhere with snow.. so I'm stuck watching the models.. and slipping on my butt when lucy pulls the football.. even though I've learned to hold out until within 48 hours.. but my heart doesn't listen to the brain...and I run towards that football.. IT"S GONNNNNNAAAAA SNOOOOOOOWWW...whooosh..whiff... nothing.

Though when I saw the Austin news I came looking for your post... so happy you got to enjoy a splash of that stuff.

February 11, 2010, I wasn't here then either but a foot in DFW 10 years next week heck even March 2015 when we saw 3-4 inches(the last real snow)...

It seems unfathomable now when we can't even get a half inch

Yep.. that's the one.. I moved here in Aug 2010. Had visited several times and got to enjoy snow on christmas (i think that was 08 instead). Yep I remember the 2015 snow.. I was doing burbees in the snow lol.. and my less than 1 year old bulldog was going crazy in it loving it.

[Brent]

Classic like I'm past the being upset about it like before(probably because I chased)

[Texas Snow]

Surprised there’s no chatter about the front the Euro and GFS are both showing in 9 to 10 days.

This thread is dead. Maybe someone should make a Spring thread.

This Cpv17 quote is the first real reference to the storm that I found. That was on page 89 on JAN 25.

This thread is dead reference kicked off page 90 and the thread livened up from there.

We hit 100 around midnight Feb 1.

Now on Feb 6 the storm wrap-up is on 143.

So one good storm add 61% to the entire winter thread up until that point. Pretty amazing and pretty telling on how slow it’s been. Hopefully we get another shot and DFW can get in on the fun and others can pick up more.





***Also of note for all the “euro is king references”, when the gfs sniffed this out it was posted on I think p90 that the euro didn’t have DFW close to freezing the entire run.

[South Texas Storms]

Looking ahead, next week looks wet. Some areas could see their average monthly rainfall in a matter of a few days around the middle part of the week. I'm looking forward to that!