94S INVEST 200213 1200 14.8S 75.0E SHEM 20 1008
SIO: GABEKILE - Post-Tropical
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Nancy Smar
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Nancy Smar
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Re: SIO: INVEST 94S
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0S 75.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 75.3E, APPROXIMATELY 475
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT IN 130814Z AMSR2
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) AND MODERATE POLEWARD AND
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE
WITH SLOW EASTWARD TO POLEWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
NEAR 15.0S 75.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 75.3E, APPROXIMATELY 475
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT IN 130814Z AMSR2
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) AND MODERATE POLEWARD AND
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE
WITH SLOW EASTWARD TO POLEWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Nancy Smar
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Re: SIO: INVEST 94S
Convection maintained overnight and even wraps around a now well-defined circulation near
14.5S/74.5E at 1030Z. This morning ASCAT-A swath shows a surface circulation still elongated but
with max winds reaching 20kt North and South of the center. The central pressure is estimated at
1007 hPa. Within conducive environmental conditions, especially aloft, a significant strengthening
is awaited over this week-end. The american model (GFS) is now in agreement with the euro
scenario (IFS) from yesterday's 18Z run, and forecast a significant strengthening. Moreover, the
cyclogenesis signal clearly increased within the ensemble prediction.
The risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm over the center of the basin becomes
moderate Saturday and then high from Monday.
14.5S/74.5E at 1030Z. This morning ASCAT-A swath shows a surface circulation still elongated but
with max winds reaching 20kt North and South of the center. The central pressure is estimated at
1007 hPa. Within conducive environmental conditions, especially aloft, a significant strengthening
is awaited over this week-end. The american model (GFS) is now in agreement with the euro
scenario (IFS) from yesterday's 18Z run, and forecast a significant strengthening. Moreover, the
cyclogenesis signal clearly increased within the ensemble prediction.
The risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm over the center of the basin becomes
moderate Saturday and then high from Monday.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 94S
The models only started picking up on 94S yesterday, and now it looks like it will be a quick, compact system, possibly akin to Ambali from earlier this season. The GFS is forecasting a very compact ~970 mbar system between 18z tomorrow and 06z Sunday before weakening.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: INVEST 94S
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Re: SIO: INVEST 94S
A really tiny eyewall is trying to close off: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 151224.gif
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: INVEST 94S
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1900hurricane
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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone
Looks like it's outdoing expectations in the near term. Probably a typhoon equivalent right now.
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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone
1900hurricane wrote:Looks like it's outdoing expectations in the near term. Probably a typhoon equivalent right now.
Given how compact and quickly developing it is, as well as the presence of a clearing eye, I’d put Gabekile at 80-90 kt. It’s probably going to be just 55-65 kt in the 18z best track update, though.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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1900hurricane
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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone
Called it. They went with 55 kt.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone
W eye within a symmetrical CMG/CDG CDO. Looks like it’s about to bomb.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 151945.jpg
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 151945.jpg
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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1900hurricane
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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone
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1900hurricane
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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone
~85-90 kt looks like a good assessment to me as well at the current moment.
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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone
The eye seems to be having some trouble clearing out. It was clearer a few hours ago, even though microwave presentation is great.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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1900hurricane
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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone
All the microwave estimates have been way above JTWC.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone
Still a little bit low.
16S GABEKILE 200216 0000 18.4S 74.6E SHEM 75 981
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone
Remains at 75 kts.
16S GABEKILE 200216 1200 20.2S 75.0E SHEM 75 978
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