2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[BYG Jacob]

Gonna be another very dangerous year. Wonderful.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Why the Nashville tornado?

Not sure how much (if any) correlation tornadoes have to a given hurricane season but I find it interesting that two of Crown Weathers analog seasons featured two other instances of a significant tornado tracking very similar to the recent EF-4 one a few days ago.

What's even more intriguing is that I picked both 1933 & 1998 as possible analog years at least a couple of weeks ago when I was doing my research and was based on the weather pattern of the winter as well as various records that have been tied or broken.

Both of those seasons had Hurricane landfalls in my neck of the woods. Eastern North Carolina.

1933 had the 'Chesapeake Bay Hurricane' and the 'Outer Banks Hurricane'. The latter is considered one of the worst strikes in the last 100 years in my small community and was comparable to Hurricane Isabel in effects.

1998 had Hurricane Bonnie a top-end Cat 2.

[cycloneye]

Something big going on in the ENSO thread

[Kingarabian]

Something big going on in the ENSO thread

Also interesting is that it's hinting @ a -AMO setting up.



PC- Weathermodels.com

[CyclonicFury]

Anyone have the ECMWF precipitation anomaly graphic for the Atlantic for JAS? FWIW in February it showed a much more moist MDR for JJA than it had shown the past three years in its February forecast.

[TheStormExpert]

Something big going on in the ENSO thread

Also interesting is that it's hinting @ a -AMO setting up.

https://i.imgur.com/swXdv5m.png

PC- Weathermodels.com

Well we kind of already have that look right now.

[SFLcane]

Something big going on in the ENSO thread

Also interesting is that it's hinting @ a -AMO setting up.

https://i.imgur.com/swXdv5m.png

PC- Weathermodels.com

Well we kind of already have that look right now.

https://i.imgur.com/XaJIzvL.png[/quote

Again Looks like a -AMO kinda. Cool horseshoe with warmth in the subtropics. Not a hyperactive setup for the Atlantic by any means. See how you have the sst in the area near Greenland and the MDR? This is the look for a hyperactive season. we shall see

[Shell Mound]

My early guess: déjà vu. Every Atlantic hurricane season since 2015 has been roughly the same in terms of the -AMO, excepting 2017. The ENSO has been roughly the same as well, weak +/-ENSO events being dominant, at least since the super Niño of 2015-16. I would expect yet another season with relatively few “high-quality” storms and a lot of weak systems, with significant weighting given to TC development in the subtropics. In other words, most storms won’t produce a lot of ACE, other than a few notable exceptions. I would also watch out for homegrown development in the Gulf and/or along the Eastern Seaboard, plus quick development over or near West Africa and Cabo Verde. Watch out for that one major hurricane that hits land or that wet tropical storm that slogs ashore somewhere. Overall activity should be near or slightly above average, give or take a few systems.

[CyclonicFury]

Remember 2018 had a VERY strong -AMO signature in spring and still went on to be above average, even with a few MDR hurricanes. It's certainly not a lock the AMO is negative at peak season. FWIW the ECMWF graphic Kingarabian posted shows near-slightly above normal MDR SSTs based on a 1993-2016 climo which was mostly during a +AMO period. I strongly believe we are NOT in a -AMO era.

[TheStormExpert]

Also wouldn’t a -AMO suggest delayed developments similar to storms like Dorian, Harvey, etc.?

[DestinHurricane]

Also wouldn’t a -AMO suggest delayed developments similar to storms like Dorian, Harvey, etc.?

Which would cause storms to spin up more west, thus more of a threat to the U.S., correct?

[gatorcane]

And the long-range GFS continues to go with a +NAO look which will further warm the Caribbean, Bahamas, Gulf, and waters around Florida. This pattern has pretty much dominated all winter and has kept the waters warmer than normal over this region.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1236687661085196288




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1236688021623316480




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1236688524843388928




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1236693170651570180

[Shell Mound]

That combination of La Niña, -PDO, and -AMO might lead to more subsidence over the MDR and Caribbean, counteracting the strong African monsoon.

I would be more interested in seeing whether the SSTA configuration in the tropical Atlantic can take on a 2017-type look by ASO.

[CyclonicFury]

:uarrow: That combination of La Niña, -PDO, and -AMO might lead to more subsidence over the MDR and Caribbean, counteracting the strong African monsoon.

I would be more interested in seeing whether the SSTA configuration in the tropical Atlantic can take on a 2017-type look by ASO.

I'm not convinced about that. Look what happened in 2018. 2018 had a near-textbook -AMO look for a large portion of the season, and the strong WAM was enough to boost the MDR to the point where four hurricanes formed, including the earliest hurricane to form so far east in the deep tropics on record (Beryl).

It seems like the Atlantic has had a -AMO look in just about every spring since 2014. Despite this, the Atlantic is coming off four straight above average seasons with 130+ ACE, including six hurricanes officially classified as Category 5. Only the Caribbean has really seen a significant decline in activity, while the subtropics have seen enhanced activity. It's going to be interesting to see if the current very warm anomalies over the southern MDR spread northward as the season gets closer.

[SFLcane]

Time to get ready is now. Its going to be a busy one.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1237385218329362433

[SFLcane]

Hmm... ECMWF has cool ENSO but notice the Atlantic MDR is average on this map below. Probably a 2016-type season. Lots to watch in the coming months

[Gums]

Salute!

I see different ENSO and such forecasts this year, with El Nino helping us in the Gulf states, and La Nina hurting. That's based on historical conditions and no models or such. Just past patterns.

A late season Nina would influence our September and October storms here in the Gulf, huh? And looking at history, the Nino seems to break up the upper level flows and we do not get a lotta storms here, and the ones we get hit the east coast.

Thots?

Gums sends...

P.S. Michael recovery is taking longer than I thot. My bride has a medical appointment over in PC every few months, and there's still a lotta roofs and weak structures needing repair. We are about 40 n.m. west from ground zero, and only had 20 - 25 mph winds. However, have been thru one Cat III on the "bad" side, and a good Cat II same oh same oh.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1237854091637714946

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is not looking like a developing -AMO. If the area north of the islands continue to cool, you might get just the opposite. Warm over cool over warm. North Atlantic Tripole. That's also some really warm water off Africa. If there is a +WAM along with a stubborn +NAO you are going to see some long track storms this season