Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[stormlover2013]

Yep not good!!! Active season on the horizon

[CrazyC83]

If the coronavirus is still going on in June, will the Hurricane Hunters be grounded?

[TheStormExpert]

Another busy atlatntic hurricane season outlook this time from Accuweather.

https://i.imgur.com/TMI2A9i.jpg

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... ast/705233

I find it interesting that they mention 2005 as a possible analog in their forecast. That isnt good...


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I'm really curious to see what other analog years they're thinking besides 1980 and 2005.

As I wrote in my own forecast a couple of weeks ago, I'm going with 1933, 1952, 1953, 1959, 1979, 1990, 1995, 1998, 2005 and 2007.

1980 and 2005 are two COMPLETELY different seasons! One extremely hyperactive and one slightly above average. Don't know why they even bothered to mention 2005 rather than to scare people and get more hype. Like we need anymore of a reason to be scared than we already are with the Coronavirus!

Hurricane Allen in 1980 though might be a good indicator that the Caribbean and Mexico or even SE Texas should keep a very weary eye out this upcoming season.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Accuweather put out their forecast today
14-18 storms
7-9 Hurricanes
2-4 Majors
Analogue years 1980 and 2005

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... ast/705233

[Steve]

Yeah, you never want to see 1933 or 2005 as an analog ever. That's like every 72 years or some ****. Water is hot. WiInter in the SE and Gulf Coast was about as warm as I can ever remember. It's mid 80's now and sunny - like late April or early May. Maybe all that partially reverses and leads to strong spring rains or something to balance out, but who knows? https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomwnc.gif

Anyway, if the basin stays super hot and we keep with this semi-permanent east coast ridging (lmao with all the long-timers) , looks like it could be a wild season. Many more experts to go and 9 weeks or so. But to Accuweather's analogs, 2005 had like 11 or whatever named systems in the Gulf. haha. As exciting as it was for me besides personal destruction in Katrina, I don't need no 11 storms in the Gulf in a season again.

[tolakram]

I disagree with how people see the comparisons to 2005. All that says is conditions are similar. You could have 10 seasons with conditions similar to 2005 but only end up with one hyperactive season due to all the other variables. I think it's a fair comparison, which raises the risk of an above normal season, but IMO we can't predict hyperactivity.

[Steve]

I disagree with how people see the comparisons to 2005. All that says is conditions are similar. You could have 10 seasons with conditions similar to 2005 but only end up with one hyperactive season due to all the other variables. I think it's a fair comparison, which raises the risk of an above normal season, but IMO we can't predict hyperactivity.

Maybe we can, maybe we can't. There are always curveballs coming. But still, experts so far are in at least the 14 NS range. That's "above average" though who knows by how much. I'd add to check out the water temperature profiles in late May early June. If we're at 5-7C+, I'm going hide my head in the sand.

[CrazyC83]

2013 had well above normal sea surface temperatures - and look what happened. It's only one factor in the equation.

[NotSparta]

2013 had well above normal sea surface temperatures - and look what happened. It's only one factor in the equation.

I mean, 2013 was also a huge outlier, I wouldn't expect an anomalous season like that anytime soon

[Steve]

2013 had well above normal sea surface temperatures - and look what happened. It's only one factor in the equation.

I mean, 2013 was also a huge outlier, I wouldn't expect an anomalous season like that anytime soon

Sure. It was a departure season. SST's and SSTA's are just one part of the equation which I'm assuming everyone here already knows. But anomalous hot water with a SW Atlantic Ridge locked in invites pain.

[NotSparta]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1243591178559209472

[cycloneye]

The CSU April 2 forecast is up at the first post

[TheStormExpert]

That’s the most bullish numbers CSU has seen in years! Hopefully the Spring Barrier will trend those numbers downward.

[Shell Mound]

The CSU April 2 forecast is up at the first post

CSU’s outlook, while aggressive for its early date, is actually quite reasonable. All of the analogs listed—1960, 1966, 1980, 1996, and 2008—have been mentioned here, either separately or together, by various posters, including wxman57. There are indications that La Niña may not develop until after the peak of the Atlantic season (ASO), owing to a relative strengthening of the MJO’s amplitude within the next two weeks, of which the concomitant, resultant WWB may serve to keep ENSO in cool neutral territory at best. This would put a lid on the potential for a hyperactive Atlantic season in terms of ACE and possibly numbers, but other factors such as the warm MDR, -PDO, and strong African monsoon may still favour an above-average season (à la 2016), though not a top-tier one like 2005 or 2017.

[ScottNAtlanta]

2013 had well above normal sea surface temperatures - and look what happened. It's only one factor in the equation.

The difference I see with 2013 was that the entire Atlantic for the most part was above normal. There were few if any cool anomalies. Thus, there really was no place to focus any low pressure and pressures stayed high and instability stayed low.

[TheStormExpert]

2013 had well above normal sea surface temperatures - and look what happened. It's only one factor in the equation.

The difference I see with 2013 was that the entire Atlantic for the most part was above normal. There were few if any cool anomalies. Thus, there really was no place to focus any low pressure and pressures stayed high and instability stayed low.

2013 also was stuck in a Spring-like pattern all summer long which made tropical development very difficult to come by, which is why there were only two hurricanes (both short-lived Cat.1’s) and no majors. Number wise it was an average season.

[HurricaneEnzo]

The CSU April 2 forecast is up at the first post

CSU’s outlook, while aggressive for its early date, is actually quite reasonable. All of the analogs listed—1960, 1966, 1980, 1996, and 2008—have been mentioned here, either separately or together, by various posters, including wxman57. There are indications that La Niña may not develop until after the peak of the Atlantic season (ASO), owing to a relative strengthening of the MJO’s amplitude within the next two weeks, of which the concomitant, resultant WWB may serve to keep ENSO in cool neutral territory at best. This would put a lid on the potential for a hyperactive Atlantic season in terms of ACE and possibly numbers, but other factors such as the warm MDR, -PDO, and strong African monsoon may still favour an above-average season (à la 2016), though not a top-tier one like 2005 or 2017.

I think I read somewhere on this forum someone made the case that cool-neutral seasons prove to be just as active if not more active than La Nina seasons. I tend to agree I don't think cool neutral will do anything to impede activity if most other variables are favorable.. I'll see if I can locate the comment/post.

[DioBrando]

The CSU April 2 forecast is up at the first post

CSU’s outlook, while aggressive for its early date, is actually quite reasonable. All of the analogs listed—1960, 1966, 1980, 1996, and 2008—have been mentioned here, either separately or together, by various posters, including wxman57. There are indications that La Niña may not develop until after the peak of the Atlantic season (ASO), owing to a relative strengthening of the MJO’s amplitude within the next two weeks, of which the concomitant, resultant WWB may serve to keep ENSO in cool neutral territory at best. This would put a lid on the potential for a hyperactive Atlantic season in terms of ACE and possibly numbers, but other factors such as the warm MDR, -PDO, and strong African monsoon may still favour an above-average season (à la 2016), though not a top-tier one like 2005 or 2017.

I think I read somewhere on this forum someone made the case that cool-neutral seasons prove to be just as active if not more active than La Nina seasons. I tend to agree I don't think cool neutral will do anything to impede activity if most other variables are favorable.. I'll see if I can locate the comment/post.

was 2005 cool-neutral?

[Kingarabian]

The CSU April 2 forecast is up at the first post

CSU’s outlook, while aggressive for its early date, is actually quite reasonable. All of the analogs listed—1960, 1966, 1980, 1996, and 2008—have been mentioned here, either separately or together, by various posters, including wxman57. There are indications that La Niña may not develop until after the peak of the Atlantic season (ASO), owing to a relative strengthening of the MJO’s amplitude within the next two weeks, of which the concomitant, resultant WWB may serve to keep ENSO in cool neutral territory at best. This would put a lid on the potential for a hyperactive Atlantic season in terms of ACE and possibly numbers, but other factors such as the warm MDR, -PDO, and strong African monsoon may still favour an above-average season (à la 2016), though not a top-tier one like 2005 or 2017.

I think I read somewhere on this forum someone made the case that cool-neutral seasons prove to be just as active if not more active than La Nina seasons. I tend to agree I don't think cool neutral will do anything to impede activity if most other variables are favorable.. I'll see if I can locate the comment/post.

In the past 20 years, the two seasons where ENSO went from warm neutral in the spring -> cool-neutral during ASO -> La Nina in the fall were 2005 and 2017. Climate models are forecasting a repeat of this scenario for 2020. ENSO is only one key to the puzzle though. But other indicators continue to point towards an active Atlantic hurricane season.

[TheStormExpert]

CSU’s outlook, while aggressive for its early date, is actually quite reasonable. All of the analogs listed—1960, 1966, 1980, 1996, and 2008—have been mentioned here, either separately or together, by various posters, including wxman57. There are indications that La Niña may not develop until after the peak of the Atlantic season (ASO), owing to a relative strengthening of the MJO’s amplitude within the next two weeks, of which the concomitant, resultant WWB may serve to keep ENSO in cool neutral territory at best. This would put a lid on the potential for a hyperactive Atlantic season in terms of ACE and possibly numbers, but other factors such as the warm MDR, -PDO, and strong African monsoon may still favour an above-average season (à la 2016), though not a top-tier one like 2005 or 2017.

I think I read somewhere on this forum someone made the case that cool-neutral seasons prove to be just as active if not more active than La Nina seasons. I tend to agree I don't think cool neutral will do anything to impede activity if most other variables are favorable.. I'll see if I can locate the comment/post.

was 2005 cool-neutral?

Yep, 2005 was cool-neutral at the very least I’m pretty positive. Those cool-neutral seasons can be more dangerous than La Niña seasons since you won’t have a wall of westerly shear protecting U.S. locations like Florida from a worst case scenario storm a lot like Dorian was.