Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[TheProfessor]

I've been looking at CSU's analogs and each year there's at least one storm that takes a sharp westward or west-southwest dive due to running into strong ridging. Of course one of the more well known of these storms was Ike in '08. 1996 was a bit different however as the storms that took sudden westward/wsw(There was even a storm that dove straight southward.) tracks were further away from the CONUS. I do think this will be something to watch this year, there's a lot that still needs to play out this spring to try to figure what the domination 500 features will be throughout the Summer though.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think I read somewhere on this forum someone made the case that cool-neutral seasons prove to be just as active if not more active than La Nina seasons. I tend to agree I don't think cool neutral will do anything to impede activity if most other variables are favorable.. I'll see if I can locate the comment/post.

was 2005 cool-neutral?

Yep, 2005 was cool-neutral at the very least I’m pretty positive. Those cool-neutral seasons can be more dangerous than La Niña seasons since you won’t have a wall of westerly shear protecting U.S. locations like Florida from a worst case scenario storm a lot like Dorian was.

I also think the way its trending makes a difference. If you are trending in the direction of cool its more favorable than if you are cool trending to warm

[DioBrando]

I've been looking at CSU's analogs and each year there's at least one storm that takes a sharp westward or west-southwest dive due to running into strong ridging. Of course one of the more well known of these storms was Ike in '08. 1996 was a bit different however as the storms that took sudden westward/wsw(There was even a storm that dove straight southward.) tracks were further away from the CONUS. I do think this will be something to watch this year, there's a lot that still needs to play out this spring to try to figure what the domination 500 features will be throughout the Summer though.

which storm dove downward?

[TheProfessor]

I've been looking at CSU's analogs and each year there's at least one storm that takes a sharp westward or west-southwest dive due to running into strong ridging. Of course one of the more well known of these storms was Ike in '08. 1996 was a bit different however as the storms that took sudden westward/wsw(There was even a storm that dove straight southward.) tracks were further away from the CONUS. I do think this will be something to watch this year, there's a lot that still needs to play out this spring to try to figure what the domination 500 features will be throughout the Summer though.

which storm dove downward?

It was hurricane Marco

[DioBrando]

I've been looking at CSU's analogs and each year there's at least one storm that takes a sharp westward or west-southwest dive due to running into strong ridging. Of course one of the more well known of these storms was Ike in '08. 1996 was a bit different however as the storms that took sudden westward/wsw(There was even a storm that dove straight southward.) tracks were further away from the CONUS. I do think this will be something to watch this year, there's a lot that still needs to play out this spring to try to figure what the domination 500 features will be throughout the Summer though.

which storm dove downward?

It was hurricane Marco

I see, I've noticed that 1996 seems to have many of these long-lasting hurricanes like that labor day one.... (not Fran but the other one)
Would storms like that be likely?

[CyclonicFury]

The Tropical Storm Risk forecast for April was expected to be released today but it is not out yet. I wonder if it is delayed due to COVID-19?

[cycloneye]

The Tropical Storm Risk forecast for April was expected to be released today but it is not out yet. I wonder if it is delayed due to COVID-19?

Is now up.

[cycloneye]

WeatherBell is up.

[TheStormExpert]

WeatherBell is up.

https://i.imgur.com/LnkjTRy.png

One can only hope this forecast busts big time especially considering he is highlighting the Bahamas. With Dorian from last year and now the Coronavirus, they don’t need another tropical cyclone of any type!

[cycloneye]

WeatherBell is up.

https://i.imgur.com/LnkjTRy.png

One can only hope this forecast busts big time especially considering he is highlighting the Bahamas. With Dorian from last year and now the Coronavirus, they don’t need another tropical cyclone of any type!

And Puerto Rico does not need another hit.

Hurricane Maria
6.4 Earthquake on January 7
Covid19

[TheStormExpert]

WeatherBell is up.

https://i.imgur.com/LnkjTRy.png

One can only hope this forecast busts big time especially considering he is highlighting the Bahamas. With Dorian from last year and now the Coronavirus, they don’t need another tropical cyclone of any type!

And Puerto Rico does not need another hit.

Hurricane Maria
6.4 Earthquake on January 7
Covid19

Pretty much anywhere in the world doesn’t need a tropical cyclone anytime soon! This virus plus a tropical cyclone hit would be a evacuation nightmare!

[FireRat]

WOW that is insane!! You can't really have a more ominous-looking forecast than this, holy cow this could be very bad. No one needs a hurricane striking land any year, but 2020 is the worst possible one to see a forecast like this verify!

[Shell Mound]

WOW that is insane!! You can't really have a more ominous-looking forecast than this, holy cow this could be very bad. No one needs a hurricane striking land any year, but 2020 is the worst possible one to see a forecast like this verify!

Respectfully, according to a general rule, I wouldn’t (necessarily) base one’s expectations for the upcoming hurricane season(s) on Joe Bastardi’s outlook(s).

He may well be right in 2020, like the proverbial broken clock. However, I would not base one’s expectations solely on his outlook(s).

[aspen]

I feel that the general consensus/trend is more worrisome than the individual forecasts. We now have three in a row predicting a significantly above average season, after several active seasons where predictions generally fell short of actual numbers (especially 2017 but also 2016 and 2019). The current ENSO trends are also very concerning, since they’re shifting to a cool neutral with warmer SSTs throughout the Atlantic, after two seasons that happened during what were probably small El Niño events.

[TheStormExpert]

WOW that is insane!! You can't really have a more ominous-looking forecast than this, holy cow this could be very bad. No one needs a hurricane striking land any year, but 2020 is the worst possible one to see a forecast like this verify!

Respectfully, according to a general rule, I wouldn’t (necessarily) base one’s expectations for the upcoming hurricane season(s) on Joe Bastardi’s outlook(s).

He may well be right in 2020, like the proverbial broken clock. However, I would not base one’s expectations solely on his outlook(s).

The majority of the last four active Atlantic Hurricane seasons his April outlook was not bullish enough, now will his April outlook for this season be too bullish? Not to mention that he ALWAYS shows concern for the NE U.S. which btw is where he is located.

[TheStormExpert]

I feel that the general consensus/trend is more worrisome than the individual forecasts. We now have three in a row predicting a significantly above average season, after several active seasons where predictions generally fell short of actual numbers (especially 2017 but also 2016 and 2019). The current ENSO trends are also very concerning, since they’re shifting to a cool neutral with warmer SSTs throughout the Atlantic, after two seasons that happened during what were probably small El Niño events.

True, but we need to get past the Spring Barrier before we can sound the alarm as things can just as quickly reverse.

[aspen]

I feel that the general consensus/trend is more worrisome than the individual forecasts. We now have three in a row predicting a significantly above average season, after several active seasons where predictions generally fell short of actual numbers (especially 2017 but also 2016 and 2019). The current ENSO trends are also very concerning, since they’re shifting to a cool neutral with warmer SSTs throughout the Atlantic, after two seasons that happened during what were probably small El Niño events.

True, but we need to get past the Spring Barrier before we can sound the alarm as things can just as quickly reverse.

I generally understand what the Spring Barrier is, but how long does it usually go for? Keep in mind, I’m not a meteorologist or a meteorology student, but I have learned stuff on my own.

[CyclonicFury]

I feel that the general consensus/trend is more worrisome than the individual forecasts. We now have three in a row predicting a significantly above average season, after several active seasons where predictions generally fell short of actual numbers (especially 2017 but also 2016 and 2019). The current ENSO trends are also very concerning, since they’re shifting to a cool neutral with warmer SSTs throughout the Atlantic, after two seasons that happened during what were probably small El Niño events.

True, but we need to get past the Spring Barrier before we can sound the alarm as things can just as quickly reverse.

I generally understand what the Spring Barrier is, but how long does it usually go for? Keep in mind, I’m not a meteorologist or a meteorology student, but I have learned stuff on my own.

The Spring Barrier seems to mostly be over by the end of May. The SPB tends to pose forecasting issues more commonly during years transitioning from -ENSO to +ENSO, as it is tricky to forecast El Niño development. I would say the chances of an El Niño forming and strengthening in 2020 are low at the moment, considering the cooling subsurface and lack of upcoming WWBs.

[cheezyWXguy]

WOW that is insane!! You can't really have a more ominous-looking forecast than this, holy cow this could be very bad. No one needs a hurricane striking land any year, but 2020 is the worst possible one to see a forecast like this verify!

Respectfully, according to a general rule, I wouldn’t (necessarily) base one’s expectations for the upcoming hurricane season(s) on Joe Bastardi’s outlook(s).

He may well be right in 2020, like the proverbial broken clock. However, I would not base one’s expectations solely on his outlook(s).

I mean, he is highlighting virtually the entire us shoreline and northern Caribbean in the highest landfall risk area. With that much coverage, it’s going to be hard for that forecast not to technically verify.

[TheStormExpert]

WOW that is insane!! You can't really have a more ominous-looking forecast than this, holy cow this could be very bad. No one needs a hurricane striking land any year, but 2020 is the worst possible one to see a forecast like this verify!

Respectfully, according to a general rule, I wouldn’t (necessarily) base one’s expectations for the upcoming hurricane season(s) on Joe Bastardi’s outlook(s).

He may well be right in 2020, like the proverbial broken clock. However, I would not base one’s expectations solely on his outlook(s).

I mean, he is highlighting virtually the entire us shoreline and northern Caribbean in the highest landfall risk area. With that much coverage, it’s going to be hard for that forecast not to technically verify.

I’d say that’s about 75% of the U.S. Eastern Seaboard including the Gulf Coast States.