2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[cycloneye]

Ok just took a look and the April euro precipitation maps for June,July,August for the Atlantic and all I can say is woah this is scary look coming from this model. If sst’s keep warning a hyperactive yr is almost a given.

Edit: Euro has been bone dry this time the last couple years and we've had average years.

I guess is the paid site right as you didn't post it?

[SFLcane]

Ok just took a look and the April euro precipitation maps for June,July,August for the Atlantic and all I can say is woah this is scary look coming from this model. If sst’s keep warning a hyperactive yr is almost a given.

Edit: Euro has been bone dry this time the last couple years and we've had average years.

I guess is the paid site right as you didn't post it?

Hi Luis! Check your Twitter.

[cycloneye]

Ok just took a look and the April euro precipitation maps for June,July,August for the Atlantic and all I can say is woah this is scary look coming from this model. If sst’s keep warning a hyperactive yr is almost a given.

Edit: Euro has been bone dry this time the last couple years and we've had average years.

I guess is the paid site right as you didn't post it?

Hi Luis! Check your Twitter.

I did. And I say wow,is not good what Euro has.

[Hurricaneman]

I guess is the paid site right as you didn't post it?

Hi Luis! Check your Twitter.

I did. And I say wow,is not good what Euro has.

Has a look of the most active seasons on record, hope it’s way wrong as a hyperactive season is not needed or wanted this year

[Pressure]

Just want to be up to speed: what is everyone seeing that has been causing the bullish numbers lately? I’m sure you all have years of experience with looking at patterns and teleconnections and such, but it seems like I’m missing something? The AMO doesnt look particularly warm, and a full blown La Niña is still uncertain (although cool neutral has produced some monstrous seasons.) Let me know

[cycloneye]

Let's have a good discussion about this about what member Shell Mound commented on the ENSO thread. The NAO is now negative but despite that the North Atlantic SSTA's are more cooler. What is causing this cooling even with the -NAO? Below is his post there.

It is interesting to note that the MDR has actually begun to cool significantly ever since the NAO flipped strongly negative, starting in particular around 1 April. This is contrary to what one would normally expect. Similarly, up until this point, the NAO has been strongly positive throughout most of the winter, yet because the large-scale synoptic features were displaced farther to the north than is usual for typical +NAO events, the enhanced low-level easterlies due to strong subtropical ridging largely stayed north of the MDR, while anomalous low-level westerlies persisted farther south, closer to the Equator. So the overall effects on the MDR were more like those of a -NAO/+AMM rather than a +NAO/-AMM, serving to counter the cold North Atlantic and keeping the MDR warm. Yet this has proven a double-edge sword, since the oncoming -NAO period has acted more like a +NAO/-AMM than a -NAO/+AMM, since the anomalous westerlies are now occurring north of the MDR, with shortwave ridging and easterlies farther south, resulting in the recent cooling. It is possible to speculate that climate change is shifting large-scale features northward and is producing unusual outcomes relative to specific patterns

The seven day change graphic shows the cooling.



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

[CyclonicFury]

Let's have a good discussion about this about what member Shell Mound commented on the ENSO thread. The NAO is now negative but despite that the North Atlantic SSTA's are more cooler. What is causing this cooling even with the -NAO? Below is his post there.

It is interesting to note that the MDR has actually begun to cool significantly ever since the NAO flipped strongly negative, starting in particular around 1 April. This is contrary to what one would normally expect. Similarly, up until this point, the NAO has been strongly positive throughout most of the winter, yet because the large-scale synoptic features were displaced farther to the north than is usual for typical +NAO events, the enhanced low-level easterlies due to strong subtropical ridging largely stayed north of the MDR, while anomalous low-level westerlies persisted farther south, closer to the Equator. So the overall effects on the MDR were more like those of a -NAO/+AMM rather than a +NAO/-AMM, serving to counter the cold North Atlantic and keeping the MDR warm. Yet this has proven a double-edge sword, since the oncoming -NAO period has acted more like a +NAO/-AMM than a -NAO/+AMM, since the anomalous westerlies are now occurring north of the MDR, with shortwave ridging and easterlies farther south, resulting in the recent cooling. It is possible to speculate that climate change is shifting large-scale features northward and is producing unusual outcomes relative to specific patterns

The seven day change graphic shows the cooling.

https://i.imgur.com/e3mANvE.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

MDR SST anomalies can be very noisy and are prone to significant fluctuations, which is why I prefer to use a monthly average SST anomaly rather than the current SST anomaly. Right now OISST is showing the MDR to be cooler than CDAS, which is unusual.

[cycloneye]

Maybe not so fast?

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1247211099730194434

[SFLcane]

Maybe not so fast?

https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1247211099730194434

Euro has been bone dry this time the last couple years and we've had average years. If it verifies the ITCZ will be percolating all season. Deffo no bueno

[Chris90]

Didn't the Euro seasonal forecast a really wet CPAC/Hawaii for the season last year during the spring, only for it be really quiet almost all hurricane season? The CPAC barely saw any activity, definitely nothing like it saw in 2018. Just a note that I'm going purely off memory, so that may be completely wrong.

It is another indicator of the potential for an active season, but it's something I'm not going to give a lot of weight to. If it was forecasting a drier tropical ATL the past few years, with those seasons ending up above average, maybe a forecast for a wet tropical ATL will end up being below average?

[CyclonicFury]

Didn't the Euro seasonal forecast a really wet CPAC/Hawaii for the season last year during the spring, only for it be really quiet almost all hurricane season? The CPAC barely saw any activity, definitely nothing like it saw in 2018. Just a note that I'm going purely off memory, so that may be completely wrong.

It is another indicator of the potential for an active season, but it's something I'm not going to give a lot of weight to. If it was forecasting a drier tropical ATL the past few years, with those seasons ending up above average, maybe a forecast for a wet tropical ATL will end up being below average?

I suppose that's possible, but could it just be due to the model typically having a +ENSO bias? ECMWF predicted El Niño to persist last year when it actually dissipated in July.

[Kingarabian]

No so fast with the above average predictions...

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1245391725692162051

To clarify, Ben Noll wasn't pulling an April fools prank:
 https://twitter.com/NiwaWeather/status/1246543063801040899




From my experience, I would like to see the rising branch situated closer to 120W rather than 90W, and for it to persist more than 60 days before I would associate it with El Nino. But El Nino is a spectrum and there are many different flavors of it as we've seen from the 2009, 2014, 2015, 2018 events.

[HurricaneEnzo]

So sinking air in the WPAC is a pattern associated with El Nino? That seems counterintuitive because El Ninos typically result in above average Typhoon seasons do they not?

[TheStormExpert]

Let's have a good discussion about this about what member Shell Mound commented on the ENSO thread. The NAO is now negative but despite that the North Atlantic SSTA's are more cooler. What is causing this cooling even with the -NAO? Below is his post there.

It is interesting to note that the MDR has actually begun to cool significantly ever since the NAO flipped strongly negative, starting in particular around 1 April. This is contrary to what one would normally expect. Similarly, up until this point, the NAO has been strongly positive throughout most of the winter, yet because the large-scale synoptic features were displaced farther to the north than is usual for typical +NAO events, the enhanced low-level easterlies due to strong subtropical ridging largely stayed north of the MDR, while anomalous low-level westerlies persisted farther south, closer to the Equator. So the overall effects on the MDR were more like those of a -NAO/+AMM rather than a +NAO/-AMM, serving to counter the cold North Atlantic and keeping the MDR warm. Yet this has proven a double-edge sword, since the oncoming -NAO period has acted more like a +NAO/-AMM than a -NAO/+AMM, since the anomalous westerlies are now occurring north of the MDR, with shortwave ridging and easterlies farther south, resulting in the recent cooling. It is possible to speculate that climate change is shifting large-scale features northward and is producing unusual outcomes relative to specific patterns

The seven day change graphic shows the cooling.

https://i.imgur.com/e3mANvE.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

With us entering the Spring Barrier this is not too surprising. If anything this is why I would never put too much stock into early Spring hurricane forecasts. Majority of the time CSU’s April Atlantic Hurricane forecasts are too low or too high, in this case they might be too high.

[cycloneye]

Let's have a good discussion about this about what member Shell Mound commented on the ENSO thread. The NAO is now negative but despite that the North Atlantic SSTA's are more cooler. What is causing this cooling even with the -NAO? Below is his post there.

It is interesting to note that the MDR has actually begun to cool significantly ever since the NAO flipped strongly negative, starting in particular around 1 April. This is contrary to what one would normally expect. Similarly, up until this point, the NAO has been strongly positive throughout most of the winter, yet because the large-scale synoptic features were displaced farther to the north than is usual for typical +NAO events, the enhanced low-level easterlies due to strong subtropical ridging largely stayed north of the MDR, while anomalous low-level westerlies persisted farther south, closer to the Equator. So the overall effects on the MDR were more like those of a -NAO/+AMM rather than a +NAO/-AMM, serving to counter the cold North Atlantic and keeping the MDR warm. Yet this has proven a double-edge sword, since the oncoming -NAO period has acted more like a +NAO/-AMM than a -NAO/+AMM, since the anomalous westerlies are now occurring north of the MDR, with shortwave ridging and easterlies farther south, resulting in the recent cooling. It is possible to speculate that climate change is shifting large-scale features northward and is producing unusual outcomes relative to specific patterns

The seven day change graphic shows the cooling.

https://i.imgur.com/e3mANvE.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

With us entering the Spring Barrier this is not too surprising. If anything this is why I would never put too much stock into early Spring hurricane forecasts. Majority of the time CSU’s April Atlantic Hurricane forecasts are too low or too high, in this case they might be too high.

Yeah,Maria was not forecasted in that April prediction.

[Chris90]

Didn't the Euro seasonal forecast a really wet CPAC/Hawaii for the season last year during the spring, only for it be really quiet almost all hurricane season? The CPAC barely saw any activity, definitely nothing like it saw in 2018. Just a note that I'm going purely off memory, so that may be completely wrong.

It is another indicator of the potential for an active season, but it's something I'm not going to give a lot of weight to. If it was forecasting a drier tropical ATL the past few years, with those seasons ending up above average, maybe a forecast for a wet tropical ATL will end up being below average?

I suppose that's possible, but could it just be due to the model typically having a +ENSO bias? ECMWF predicted El Niño to persist last year when it actually dissipated in July.

Well, you know, I didn't factor that in, it's a good point. Bearing that in mind, this long range forecast might be a little more ominous for the ATL than I was thinking, but I still don't give a lot of weight to the long range forecasts at this time. I'm more interested in waiting to see what it shows in May and June, and how it has been trending over the past few runs. If it keeps this up into July I'm going to feel more confident in predicting an above average season.

[SFLcane]

No so fast with the above average predictions...

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1245391725692162051

To clarify, Ben Noll wasn't pulling an April fools prank:
https://twitter.com/NiwaWeather/status/1246543063801040899

From my experience, I would like to see the rising branch situated closer to 120W rather than 90W, and for it to persist more than 60 days before I would associate it with El Nino. But El Nino is a spectrum and there are many different flavors of it as we've seen from the 2009, 2014, 2015, 2018 events.

I think he might be confusing an intra seasonal signal for a seasonal. But I want to see the euro ssts before I say much.

[aspen]

Let's have a good discussion about this about what member Shell Mound commented on the ENSO thread. The NAO is now negative but despite that the North Atlantic SSTA's are more cooler. What is causing this cooling even with the -NAO? Below is his post there.

It is interesting to note that the MDR has actually begun to cool significantly ever since the NAO flipped strongly negative, starting in particular around 1 April. This is contrary to what one would normally expect. Similarly, up until this point, the NAO has been strongly positive throughout most of the winter, yet because the large-scale synoptic features were displaced farther to the north than is usual for typical +NAO events, the enhanced low-level easterlies due to strong subtropical ridging largely stayed north of the MDR, while anomalous low-level westerlies persisted farther south, closer to the Equator. So the overall effects on the MDR were more like those of a -NAO/+AMM rather than a +NAO/-AMM, serving to counter the cold North Atlantic and keeping the MDR warm. Yet this has proven a double-edge sword, since the oncoming -NAO period has acted more like a +NAO/-AMM than a -NAO/+AMM, since the anomalous westerlies are now occurring north of the MDR, with shortwave ridging and easterlies farther south, resulting in the recent cooling. It is possible to speculate that climate change is shifting large-scale features northward and is producing unusual outcomes relative to specific patterns

The seven day change graphic shows the cooling.

https://i.imgur.com/e3mANvE.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

With us entering the Spring Barrier this is not too surprising. If anything this is why I would never put too much stock into early Spring hurricane forecasts. Majority of the time CSU’s April Atlantic Hurricane forecasts are too low or too high, in this case they might be too high.

I looked at CSU’s pre-season forecasts from the last five seasons, and they were either lower than the actual amount (2015 and 2017) or almost spot-on (2016 and 2018). 2019 is a mix of the two because CSU was pretty close with the amount of hurricanes and major hurricanes, but significantly underestimated total named storms. Then again, I don’t think anyone expected such an active late-season subtropics.

If 2020 follows the same trend, we could see a season rather similar to the CSU estimates, or one that’s significantly more active (although I personally doubt this will be a hyperactive season).

[Kingarabian]

No so fast with the above average predictions...

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1245391725692162051

To clarify, Ben Noll wasn't pulling an April fools prank:
https://twitter.com/NiwaWeather/status/1246543063801040899

From my experience, I would like to see the rising branch situated closer to 120W rather than 90W, and for it to persist more than 60 days before I would associate it with El Nino. But El Nino is a spectrum and there are many different flavors of it as we've seen from the 2009, 2014, 2015, 2018 events.

I think he might be confusing an intra seasonal signal for a seasonal. But I want to see the euro ssts before I say much.

I see where Ben was going with his tweet... because the latest VP 200 update from the Euro would be considered an El Nino signal if it lasted for 60-90 days. But it's not.

PC- Weathermodels.com

[SFLcane]

From TSR..

TSR raises its extended range forecast issued in mid-December 2019 due to updated climate signals pointing towards environmental fields in August-September 2020 that are more favourable for Atlantic hurricane activity than thought previously. These anticipated fields are warmer than normal tropical North Atlantic water temperatures and neutral-to-weak La Niña ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) conditions.