2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[SFLcane]

Regarding TSR Only 130 ACE? That would surprise me given the fact that we have basically reached that number the last two years with a much more unfavorable state.

[TheStormExpert]

Regarding TSR Only 130 ACE? That would surprise me given the fact that we have basically reached that number the last two years with a much more unfavorable state.

They went up slightly with total named storms and hurricanes but went down to only three majors verses four in their December outlook.

[aspen]

When will the NSCU pre-season forecast come out? It’ll probably be next week, but do we know the exact day?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1247905791220150274

[TheStormExpert]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1247905791220150274

Still looks like most of the warmth in the Atlantic is confined to the Subtropics especially East of Canada and Maine.

[toad strangler]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1247905791220150274

[SFLcane]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1247905791220150274

Still looks like most of the warmth in the Atlantic is confined to the Subtropics especially East of Canada and Maine.

No.

[aspen]

Uniformly warm Atlantic, cool ENSO to La Niña...that’s not a good sign.

[AutoPenalti]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1247905791220150274

Still looks like most of the warmth in the Atlantic is confined to the Subtropics especially East of Canada and Maine.

No, that’s as uniform as it gets.

[TheStormExpert]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1247905791220150274

Still looks like most of the warmth in the Atlantic is confined to the Subtropics especially East of Canada and Maine.

No, that’s as uniform as it gets.

Ok, maybe I’m missing something but I still have a hard time believing we get a 5th in a row active Atlantic Hurricane Season, this would be unprecedented and historically unheard of.

[NotSparta]

Still looks like most of the warmth in the Atlantic is confined to the Subtropics especially East of Canada and Maine.

No, that’s as uniform as it gets.

Ok, maybe I’m missing something but I still have a hard time believing we get a 5th in a row active Atlantic Hurricane Season, this would be unprecedented and historically unheard of.

It's (kind of) like a coin flip, this being the 5th heads in a row. The previous seasons have little bearing on this one (though ENSO can indeed have bearing on the following season, so the comparison isn't perfect). So if this is the first potential active season, or the 50th, if things are favorable it can be above average

[CyclonicFury]

Still looks like most of the warmth in the Atlantic is confined to the Subtropics especially East of Canada and Maine.

No, that’s as uniform as it gets.

Ok, maybe I’m missing something but I still have a hard time believing we get a 5th in a row active Atlantic Hurricane Season, this would be unprecedented and historically unheard of.

I think the lack of several active seasons in a row is more of a coincidence that has a lot to do with ENSO - El Niño typically recurs every 2-7 years and most of the inactive seasons since the active era began have been during El Niño events. After four above average seasons from 1998-2001, El Niño developed in 2002, resulting in a slightly below average season. 2006, which followed the hyperactive seasons of 2004 and 2005, was an El Niño year. Technically, 2018-19 was a weak El Niño year and 2019-20 may end up being considered a weak El Niño as well even though it was not operationally declared as one. The Niño regions were not quite warm enough to significantly hamper activity, and the warm, favorable subtropics also helped increase activity in 2018 and 2019.

2014 is a bit of an oddity here - like 2018 and 2019, ENSO did not reach the El Niño threshold during the peak of the season. Much like 2018, the AMO pattern leaned negative during most of the season, but 2014 was much less active than 2018 - possibly as a result of a weaker West African Monsoon. 2015's inactivity would have been expected, even with a very favorable Atlantic SST pattern, due to a super El Niño.

Of course 2013 occurred, which like this year consisted of very bullish seasonal forecasts after three very active seasons (in 2020's case, four). We probably won't see a season like 2013 since that was an extremely anomalous season due to a THC crash.

In theory, if the models are right, this season should be above average to perhaps even well above average.

[toad strangler]

Not believing another above average season is possible because of what DID transpire the previous for years is not good science. We must take and analyze what IS on the plate.

[aspen]

Of course 2013 occurred, which like this year consisted of very bullish seasonal forecasts after three very active seasons (in 2020's case, four). We probably won't see a season like 2013 since that was an extremely anomalous season due to a THC crash.

What’s a THC crash? I do recall that most storms during 2013 were prevented from strengthening (it was the first season I tracked), but I don’t know the full story as to why.

[TheStormExpert]

Of course 2013 occurred, which like this year consisted of very bullish seasonal forecasts after three very active seasons (in 2020's case, four). We probably won't see a season like 2013 since that was an extremely anomalous season due to a THC crash.

What’s a THC crash? I do recall that most storms during 2013 were prevented from strengthening (it was the first season I tracked), but I don’t know the full story as to why.

It’s from Wikipedia but it sounds about right as for how the 2013 season went.

The lack of activity was primarily caused by an unexpected significant weakening of the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation between winter and spring. This resulted in continuation of the spring weather pattern over the Atlantic Ocean, with strong vertical wind shear, mid-level moisture, and atmospheric stability, which suppressed tropical cyclogenesis.

[Hammy]

Still looks like most of the warmth in the Atlantic is confined to the Subtropics especially East of Canada and Maine.

No, that’s as uniform as it gets.

Ok, maybe I’m missing something but I still have a hard time believing we get a 5th in a row active Atlantic Hurricane Season, this would be unprecedented and historically unheard of.

Keep in mind though how much has happened in the last several seasons that otherwise would've seemed impossible for the same reason--four years with Cat 5's, Michael hitting where it did when it did, just to name a few easy ones that come to mind.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Of course 2013 occurred, which like this year consisted of very bullish seasonal forecasts after three very active seasons (in 2020's case, four). We probably won't see a season like 2013 since that was an extremely anomalous season due to a THC crash.

What’s a THC crash? I do recall that most storms during 2013 were prevented from strengthening (it was the first season I tracked), but I don’t know the full story as to why.

I always thought a THC crash was when you stop smokin' weed every day cold turkey

[MetroMike]

The definition of an active season is somewhat subjective. It seems to me that more and more systems are being named than what is necessary.
There were several instances in the past several years when I was shocked that a so called naked swirl was classified with a name especially if it was in the subtropics and no threat to land.
Those systems can easily rack up the ACE points for any given season, giving the impression of a "busy" season.
Of course there are the legit cyclones which can rack up ACE numbers in a more traditional manner.
Just something that I wanted to chime in on.

[SFLcane]

From weatherbell.. This will be an eye opener. Time is now to get ready folks!

[cycloneye]

From weatherbell.. This will be an eye opener. Time is now to get ready folks!

https://i.imgur.com/eOiEaF5.png

That is from JB?