2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[SFLcane]

From weatherbell.. This will be an eye opener. Time is now to get ready folks!

https://i.imgur.com/eOiEaF5.png

That is from JB?

Hi Luis, yes joe b and Maue.

To add to this. Especially interesting given how conservative WeatherBell has been on MDR activity in the past few years - and they were generally correct that majority of activity would be in subtropics in 2018-19.

[aspen]

From weatherbell.. This will be an eye opener. Time is now to get ready folks!

https://i.imgur.com/eOiEaF5.png

Yeesh, that high risk zone goes all the way up to the Tri-State Area, Long Island, and Cape Cod. The last thing we need up here is a hurricane landfall, although there’s still a decent shot that COVID-19 will be winding down by the peak of hurricane season.

[SFLcane]

If you look at the Euro sst's, it's clearly La Nina with a warm MDR.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Maybe someone can answer this for me. In general, is a positive AMM associated with westerly winds in the eastern tropical Atlantic? It seems that there has been more warm water piling up off Africa due to anomalous west winds. Stronger trades would allow more upwelling.

[SFLcane]

Maybe someone can answer this for me. In general, is a positive AMM associated with westerly winds in the eastern tropical Atlantic? It seems that there has been more warm water piling up off Africa due to anomalous west winds. Stronger trades would allow more upwelling.

Yeah in general I think that's correct.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1248630567303647232

[cycloneye]

If you look at the Euro sst's, it's clearly La Nina with a warm MDR.

https://i.imgur.com/YZmN92s.png

Do you have the link of the graphic?

[CyclonicFury]

CSU's AMO index for March came in at -1.90, the lowest March value on record. CSU must no longer think their AMO index is an accurate predictor of hurricane activity based on their recent forecast.

On the flip side, the Kaplan AMO index (which is based on the entire Atlantic Ocean, not just the tropics or far North Atlantic) came in at +0.363 - the HIGHEST March value since 1945.

[Shell Mound]

CSU's AMO index for March came in at -1.90, the lowest March value on record. CSU must no longer think their AMO index is an accurate predictor of hurricane activity based on their recent forecast.

On the flip side, the Kaplan AMO index (which is based on the entire Atlantic Ocean, not just the tropics or far North Atlantic) came in at +0.363 - the HIGHEST March value on record.

Not quite. According to the Kaplan-based data, which go back to 1856, March 1944 came in first at +0.421, followed by March 1867 at +0.393 and March 1945 at +0.364. March 2020 is fourth highest at +0.363. Also, one would need to see whether the Kaplan AMO index correlates more strongly with Atlantic activity, especially ACE, than CSU’s index does. I would suspect that CSU has already compared its AMO index to the Kaplan index and found the former to be a (relatively) better indicator of Atlantic activity.

[SFLcane]

If you look at the Euro sst's, it's clearly La Nina with a warm MDR.

https://i.imgur.com/YZmN92s.png

Do you have the link of the graphic?

Hi Luis, sure do here you go. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/char ... %20(Months

[CyclonicFury]

CSU's AMO index for March came in at -1.90, the lowest March value on record. CSU must no longer think their AMO index is an accurate predictor of hurricane activity based on their recent forecast.

On the flip side, the Kaplan AMO index (which is based on the entire Atlantic Ocean, not just the tropics or far North Atlantic) came in at +0.363 - the HIGHEST March value on record.

Not quite. According to the Kaplan-based data, which go back to 1856, March 1944 came in first at +0.421, followed by March 1867 at +0.393 and March 1945 at +0.364. March 2020 is fourth highest at +0.363. Also, one would need to see whether the Kaplan AMO index correlates more strongly with Atlantic activity, especially ACE, than CSU’s index does. I would suspect that CSU has already compared its AMO index to the Kaplan index and found the former to be a (relatively) better indicator of Atlantic activity.

Prior to 2016, it appeared to be a relatively good indicator, but the last four years have been somewhat unusual with high activity and a negative CSU AMO index. The CSU AMO index has tended to be more negative during Northern Hemisphere winter/spring than summer/fall.

[TheStormExpert]

Gulf of Mexico SST’s are record warm for this time of year! Despite some outlier years due to the record cold in the SE during the winter of 2010 overall the Gulf of Mexico has been getting gradually warmer over the past 40 years!

 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1249061412896464896

[cycloneye]

Yikes,Webb said it.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1249832393940361218

[cycloneye]

Comming from Mark,these are strong words.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1249838176207810562

[SFLcane]

Yikes,Webb said it.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1249832393940361218

Buckle up folks!!!!

[crownweather]

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1249835148574670849

[SFLcane]

Wow can’t stress this enough that is some signal folks. Could be a historic season awaiting.

[crownweather]

And this too....

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1249838355635826689

[CyclonicFury]

The JJA VP anomaly pattern on the JMA model is similar to recent hyperactive Atlantic hurricane seasons. Let's hope some of these bullish forecasts don't come to fruition, because this is the most favorable the Atlantic has looked in April since at least 2013 (and possibly even 2010)...
 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1249841040879759362

[AutoPenalti]

Still too early to sound the alarm bells imo, we are still in a spring barrier and this can flip back almost as immediately as this.

We are cutting it close though...