Texas Spring 2020

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PTrackerLA
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#281 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:21 am

South Texas Storms wrote:The cap prevented much of south central Texas from seeing any storms last night. So frustrating when a forecast busts like that. Austin and SA didn't get much at all...oh well.


It will bust in south Louisiana big time today. I don't know why they kept up such strong messaging in the forecasts when the models clearly backed off anything significant here days ago.

We've had only a quarter of an inch of rain here in the last 3 weeks. :roll:
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#282 Postby Haris » Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:36 am

South Texas Storms wrote:The cap prevented much of south central Texas from seeing any storms last night. So frustrating when a forecast busts like that. Austin and SA didn't get much at all...oh well.



The cap won in each of the 3 storms systems this past week. Insane how terrible our luck is.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#283 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:55 am

Just a little surface heating this morning and the big complex is dropping QLCS tornadoes like no one's business. We're likely fortunate that the complex passed through overnight while the boundary layer was still decoupled from the low level jet.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#284 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:22 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:The cap prevented much of south central Texas from seeing any storms last night. So frustrating when a forecast busts like that. Austin and SA didn't get much at all...oh well.
I

I was the exception again. Got a tornado warned storm on the last part of the line at 5:45 this morning. Headed to bathroom. Turned into Significant Weather Advisory with 40mph gusts. We got some wind with another 0.5" of rain. 1.25" since Thursday. Yard is waterlogged. Beautiful day today! :sun:
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#285 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:53 pm

Haris wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:The cap prevented much of south central Texas from seeing any storms last night. So frustrating when a forecast busts like that. Austin and SA didn't get much at all...oh well.



The cap won in each of the 3 storms systems this past week. Insane how terrible our luck is.


I feel ya and am frustrated today as well. 3 good chances for rain over the past 3 days and most areas had less than 1 inch. My parent's in SA had a trace. Just sad...
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#286 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:13 pm

Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 121810Z - 121945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storm development is expected in the next 1 to 2 hours. A
watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...The airmass across northeast Texas and southern
Oklahoma has destabilized in the last 1 to 2 hours in the wake of a
morning MCS. MLCAPE has increased to 750 to 1250 J/kg per SPC
mesoanalysis. Some additional destabilization is expected in the
next hour or so before storm coverage quickly expands in the next 1
to 2 hours ahead of the approaching upper trough. Storm intensity
will likely be somewhat muted due to airmass contamination from the
earlier convection, but some strong to severe storms are possible.

A cold front is moving quickly across western Oklahoma and may be
the trigger for a few storms, but the fast speed may cut off
updrafts from the more unstable airmass before they can become
better rooted along the cold front. Therefore, the better threat for
strong to severe storms will likely be with storms that form ahead
of this front in eastern Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Boundary
layer cumulus have started to form in this area and SPC mesoanalysis
indicates CINH is mostly eroded indicating storm development is
likely imminent.

The primary threat from these storms will initially be large hail
and damaging winds. There is considerable low-level turning in the
TLX VWP, but low-level flow is quite weak (Less than 20 kts) which
will be a limiting factor to more than a brief weak tornado.
However, the low-level flow is expected to increase to 35-40 knots
after 22Z in southeast OK/NE TX which may lead to a greater tornado
threat early this evening in that region.

A watch may be needed, but it is unclear if storm intensity will be
strong enough to warrant a watch, especially prior to the increasing
low-level flow.

..Bentley.. 04/12/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#287 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:33 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:The cap prevented much of south central Texas from seeing any storms last night. So frustrating when a forecast busts like that. Austin and SA didn't get much at all...oh well.


It will bust in south Louisiana big time today. I don't know why they kept up such strong messaging in the forecasts when the models clearly backed off anything significant here days ago.

We've had only a quarter of an inch of rain here in the last 3 weeks. :roll:


Severe storms just erupted near you. Hope you're enjoying the rain and staying safe!
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#288 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:00 pm

Front just started coming through with extremely strong wind. It’s already dropped 6-8 degrees. Suppose to be around to below freezing in the morning.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#289 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:20 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Front just started coming through with extremely strong wind. It’s already dropped 6-8 degrees. Suppose to be around to below freezing in the morning.

Wind chills should be near freezing in the morning here. A shock to the system when I go to work at 4. Brrrrrr.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#290 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:21 pm

Temps in the 30s up in the Panhandle
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#291 Postby EnnisTx » Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:28 pm

Lone storm over Arlington is starting to drop nickel hail.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#292 Postby EnnisTx » Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:40 pm

This storm bears watching as it moves East. It's all by itself and gaining strength quickly.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#293 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:43 pm

EnnisTx wrote:This storm bears watching as it moves East. It's all by itself and gaining strength quickly.

Small but effective. My daughter and I were watching it from Royal Lane in Las Colinas. North Grand Prairie and south Irving in the crosshairs.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#294 Postby wxman57 » Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:04 pm

Great (warm) weather this afternoon. With a strong west wind, Galveston's temp shot up from 84 to 92 in one hour. About 94 at my house in SW Houston. Wish I could be out biking, but I'm working the swing shift from home. Besides that 20-30 mph west wind would be right in my face on the ride home.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#295 Postby Brent » Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:53 pm

Now that that's over everyone ready for the April Arctic air :cold: Dallas may not hit 60 again til Wednesday
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#296 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:03 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:The cap prevented much of south central Texas from seeing any storms last night. So frustrating when a forecast busts like that. Austin and SA didn't get much at all...oh well.


It will bust in south Louisiana big time today. I don't know why they kept up such strong messaging in the forecasts when the models clearly backed off anything significant here days ago.

We've had only a quarter of an inch of rain here in the last 3 weeks. :roll:

yes, i cant imagine why they would have taken it so seriously...

*quietly puts screenshots of velocity couplets in Monroe, LA and Bassfield, MS away*
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#297 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:18 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:The cap prevented much of south central Texas from seeing any storms last night. So frustrating when a forecast busts like that. Austin and SA didn't get much at all...oh well.


It will bust in south Louisiana big time today. I don't know why they kept up such strong messaging in the forecasts when the models clearly backed off anything significant here days ago.

We've had only a quarter of an inch of rain here in the last 3 weeks. :roll:

yes, i cant imagine why they would have taken it so seriously...

*quietly puts screenshots of velocity couplets in Monroe, LA and Bassfield, MS away*


I was referring to the I-10 corridor, which is over 150 miles south of the Monroe area. The SPC lowered our severe threat from a 3 to a 1 between last night and this morning. However, I spoke too soon because a line of storms developed and brought hail to portions of my city but no rain to speak of where I live on the south side. The short range models all missed that activity but were always showing a significant event in northern LA. I ran the sprinklers a little while ago so all is well in this very strange Easter Sunday.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#298 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:34 pm

Brent wrote:Now that that's over everyone ready for the April Arctic air :cold: Dallas may not hit 60 again til Wednesday

Front is through here now. Winds are whipping around and the temp has dropped quite a bit. Might be October before we have a front like this again :cry: . Enjoy it folks.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#299 Postby Brent » Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:35 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
Brent wrote:Now that that's over everyone ready for the April Arctic air :cold: Dallas may not hit 60 again til Wednesday

Front is through here now. Winds are whipping around and the temp has dropped quite a bit. Might be October before we have a front like this again :cry: . Enjoy it folks.


It got chilly quick :cold: especially after that 97 the other day

Unfortunately yeah it'll be closer to 97 in the next few months after this week so enjoy it
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#300 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:13 am

That evening storm tracked right down I20 into E TX. My neighborhood was spared much damage but my family's farm has a number of trees down. I am heading out there today to help with cleanup so I can report on extent of damage after that. Hope not too much damage to my dad's tree nursery with around 10, 000 trees. They said it was the strongest winds out there since they moved there in the early 80s.
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