Florida Weather

[toad strangler]

1.62" in Saint Lucie West yesterday (Friday)

[psyclone]

What a glorious downpour. Just had a house shaking positive lightning strike at the end. First meaningful rain here since Feb 6.

[chaser1]

Nice solid precip event here throughout the Orlando area. Nothing intense for my area of Longwood but the long low rumblings of thunder were nice.

[gatorcane]

Summer pattern rainy season-like yesterday and today. Dew point of 76F near my locale with a temp of 85F at 1:00pm. That yields a heat index of 95F! Is it June? Got dumped on last night with storms that developed right along the coast and drifted north with rolls of thunder.

[TheStormExpert]

This is definitely more of a quasi-rainy season pattern at best thanks to slowly pushing south decayed frontal boundary. Just picked up .01 of an inch of rain with this quick downpour with most of the thunderstorm activity to the south in Broward and Miami-Dade Counties. Picked up 1.49 inches of rain from last nights sustained downpours fortunately.

[NotSparta]

Snake eyes here in SW FL; not a drop of rain today

[TheStormExpert]

This squall line is holding up better than I expected! Within the last 30-45 minutes there was a tornado warning for Stuart and surrounding areas. I would say this is likely thanks to the extremely warm waters of the Gulf.

[boca]

This squall line is holding up better than I expected! Within the last 30-45 minutes there was a tornado warning for Stuart and surrounding areas. I would say this is likely thanks to the extremely warm waters of the Gulf.

As of 7pm the line looks like it’s falling apart as I write this. We really need the rain badly at this point.We have another system at the end of next weekend that might give us a better shot at rain, I’m keeping a close eye on the next weather maker.

[toad strangler]

Palm City got hammered.

[arekkusu]

Wow, I have to say that east-central and central Florida got hit a lot worse than I had expected, considering they were only under a severe thunderstorm watch. Multiple tornadic storms, including what looked to be a nasty cluster of thunderstorms with two tornadic circulations that hit Brevard County.

Elsewhere, in the context of NWS Jacksonville's CWA, it looks like the infamous Marion County radar hole struck again. There was a tornado in southern (?) Marion County near I-75 at c. 9:40 A.M. this morning that was on the ground for about fifteen minutes. The area was under an SVR at the time (the warning was tagged as having a possibility for a tornado). Two tornado warnings were eventually issued for southastern Marion at around 10:10-10:15 A.M., but it sounds like the tornado had already dissipated fifteen minutes prior to the issuance of the warning and that the tornado had actually touched down about half an hour prior.

Also, the Day 3 Convective Outlook issued this morning just gave me a bit of a shock. I've had a sneaking suspicion for a while now that Thursday into Friday might end up being nasty, but I did not expect that they would have the confidence to issue a somewhat big 30% risk area two days in advance of this particular event. So far, all of the panhandle, big bend and north-central Florida and most of northeastern Florida (including the city of Jacksonville and most of the Jax metro area) are included in the enhanced risk area. Sounds like another severe weather outbreak might be in store for us. It also looks like there might be a possibility for severe weather next weekend, as well.

My school converted to online classes over a month ago, but I will have to drive to work (graveyard shift package handling job at a warehouse) at about 2 a.m. on the 24th. Not exactly looking forward to that. I'm hoping that the convective activity has moved offshore or at least weakened somewhat by then, which seems to possibly be the case, but like before, it's still two days out.

[psyclone]

Sig severe on the map for Friday over a huge area of the southeast including north florida north of a line from St Augustine to Cedar Key. Some portion of this area is likely to end up with a moderate risk or higher considering we're still 3 days out. We're getting March like activity in April this year.

[arekkusu]

In this morning's outlook for tomorrow into Friday, the overall hatched area appears to have been reduced to only include the extreme north part of the panhandle and much of southern GA and southern AL, which are under a 10% risk of significant severe tornadoes. Hoping that this won't end up as terrible as I thought it would, although as psyclone has said, it looks like NWS Jacksonville and NWS Tallahassee could very well be in for another moderate risk day (their second in less than a week).

[psyclone]

Looks like the overall threat has trended down over the last day. Still worth watching. Hopefully we can thread the needle with some needed rain absent the severe risk.

[Shell Mound]

Given that summer-like heat is becoming the new norm for late winter in Central and South Florida, is anyone considering relocating to a snowy, mountainous area? At some point, given the current pace of climate change, living in most of Florida might become unbearable—and that’s disregarding the possibility that sea-level rise might overtake coastal areas first. Imagine living in a place with Arizona-like temperatures and Florida-type humidity from late winter to late fall! That’s what’s been happening to most of Florida in recent decades.

A possible case in point:
 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1252560436211392512



 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1252562949916504065



 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1252548346620903425



 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1252333552743657472

[psyclone]

Those Miami numbers are beyond words. We have experienced almost non stop above normal temps especially since the 2015 super nino. The flora is responding accordingly. Extreme heat is expected yet again tomorrow for inland areas as winds increase out of the south...mid 90's should be on the map yet again. I recall April warmth as getting near 90 late month. Mid to upper 90's (brooksville had a 98 last week with an offshore flow) routinely in April is something we've never seen before.

[Patrick99]

Ahhh.....what a relief. A "cooldown" for Miami yesterday and today. High is a chilly 87 degrees today

I'm guessing that hot sea temperatures to our east are to blame for a lot of what's going on. Typically in April, if we get a brisk easterly flow like this, temps are low 80s at most. It must be just that all of this air is coming from parts of the ocean that are above normal.

If there is a hurricane in August or September in this little Cuba/SFL/Bahamas triangle of ocean, with low shear, this oceanic heat content is going to push it over the top and we'll have yet another Irma/Dorian type Cat 5.

[northjaxpro]

ENHANCED risk issued by the SPC for severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes beginning this afternoon and into the evening hours across North Florida and Southern Georgia. TORNADO WATCH currently in effect for A large portion of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia until 5 p.m. This watch area probably will get extended farther south and eastward as the rest of the day progresses. I am awaiting the 12Z model runs, but examining the 06Z model data, no doubt it is going to be a very active period for yours truly monitoring these developments. The dynamics are definitely in olace for a very significant severe weather event across our region. I especially am concerned about tonight as the worst of the squall line and severe weather looks to come across the Northeast Florida region around 6 p.m Events like these, especially which portions of this wil occur when it is dark, are always worrisome for yours truly. I really hope people across the region pays extreme attention and caution to any alerts and warnings issued!!

[TheStormExpert]

Even with the record warm waters surrounding Florida on both coasts I’ve noticed that even the fronts and their associated squall lines have been lacking especially the further south you go down the peninsula, why is that?

[northjaxpro]

Even with the record warm waters surrounding Florida on both coasts I’ve noticed that even the fronts and their associated squall lines have been lacking especially the further south you go down the peninsula, why is that?

This time of the year, frontal boundaries typically stall out across North Florida, and at times Central Florida, as the upper level support , namely the upper level jet, is mosty too far north and is not strong enough to drive fronts farther south down the peninsula. So often squall lines associated with these boundaries often fizzle out , especially as they traverse into Central Florida. This is not the case everytime. We just had that round of heavy storms that happened on the stalled out boundary on Monday èvening down across the Central and South Central Florida region.

Rainy season will hopefully kick into gear down across South Florida and really peninsula-wide soon as we get into May and the seabreeze generated thunderstorms take shape

[psyclone]

That long lived tornadic bow echo over Waycross GA headed for the Georgia seacoast is going to leave a mark. It's like a mini derecho