2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Yellow Evan]

Supposing this year is an active season, that would be 5 consecutive years of above-normal activity, starting in 2016. When's the last time there were at least 5 years in a row of above-normal seasons?

Never IIRC.

[NotSparta]

Supposing this year is an active season, that would be 5 consecutive years of above-normal activity, starting in 2016. When's the last time there were at least 5 years in a row of above-normal seasons?

In observed history, it's an unprecedented event

[ScottNAtlanta]

While I couldn't find 5 in a row, there were several 4 in a row, and in several cases the 5th was close to average, and not necessarily way below. While this would be a first, how many "firsts" have we seen in our lifetimes when it comes to tropical weather? Quite a few. Records are made to be broken. While looking at past years can offer some clues, the climate we are looking at now is not like the climate of 50 years ago.

[AxaltaRacing24]

While I couldn't find 5 in a row, there were several 4 in a row, and in several cases the 5th was close to average, and not necessarily way below. While this would be a first, how many "firsts" have we seen in our lifetimes when it comes to tropical weather? Quite a few. Records are made to be broken. While looking at past years can offer some clues, the climate we are looking at now is not like the climate of 50 years ago.

It seems like every season since 2016 has broken several records, so it would be silly of us to doubt a 5th active year in a row in my opinion.

[TheStormExpert]

While I couldn't find 5 in a row, there were several 4 in a row, and in several cases the 5th was close to average, and not necessarily way below. While this would be a first, how many "firsts" have we seen in our lifetimes when it comes to tropical weather? Quite a few. Records are made to be broken. While looking at past years can offer some clues, the climate we are looking at now is not like the climate of 50 years ago.

It seems like every season since 2016 has broken several records, so it would be silly of us to doubt a 5th active year in a row in my opinion.

Yes, records are meant to be broken! And many have been since 2016 in the Atlantic.

[TheStormExpert]

What are everyone’s thoughts on 1933 being a potential analog season? It was very similar to 2005 in a sense of overall activity but featured only 20 storms and an ACE of 259 units which is slightly higher than 2005 but not by much. Overall in my opinion the tracks the storms took that year in 1933 seem reasonable to that of early indications of an active Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico with some activity off the U.S. East Coast but most confined to the Caribbean and Gulf. Just like in 2005 the Tropical Atlantic East of 60W featured little to no significant hurricanes as everything waited to develop closer in.

[cycloneye]

Webb with this bomb.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1251464264545689602

[chaser1]

What are everyone’s thoughts on 1933 being a potential analog season? It was very similar to 2005 in a sense of overall activity but featured only 20 storms and an ACE of 259 units which is slightly higher than 2005 but not by much. Overall in my opinion the tracks the storms took that year in 1933 seem reasonable to that of early indications of an active Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico with some activity off the U.S. East Coast but most confined to the Caribbean and Gulf. Just like in 2005 the Tropical Atlantic East of 60W featured little to no significant hurricanes as everything waited to develop closer in.

I think 1933 would be a good analogue year.

[TheStormExpert]

What are everyone’s thoughts on 1933 being a potential analog season? It was very similar to 2005 in a sense of overall activity but featured only 20 storms and an ACE of 259 units which is slightly higher than 2005 but not by much. Overall in my opinion the tracks the storms took that year in 1933 seem reasonable to that of early indications of an active Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico with some activity off the U.S. East Coast but most confined to the Caribbean and Gulf. Just like in 2005 the Tropical Atlantic East of 60W featured little to no significant hurricanes as everything waited to develop closer in.

I think 1933 would be a good analogue year.

Another strange way to look at it is the preceding year 1932 featured the last time a Cat.5 hurricane affected the NW Bahamas (especially The Abacos). Although not quite as strong as Dorian from last year it was called The 1932 Bahamas Hurricane, or The Great Abaco Hurricane of 1932.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1932_Bahamas_hurricane

[aspen]

Webb with this bomb.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1251464264545689602

What exactly does that model mean? Is it highlighting areas with conductive environments for tropical cyclone development?

[cycloneye]

Webb with this bomb.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1251464264545689602

What exactly does that model mean? Is it highlighting areas with conductive environments for tropical cyclone development?

Lower MSLP.

[crownweather]

Webb with this bomb.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1251464264545689602

What exactly does that model mean? Is it highlighting areas with conductive environments for tropical cyclone development?

Lower MSLP.

And sure enough the CFS model sure is lighting things up early. This is from the 12Z CFS model today for May 20.

[Kingarabian]

Webb with this bomb.

[url]https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1251464264545689602[url]

I think a mid/late June system is possible. Nino 1+2 should be in sustained negative territory by then.

Since it seems 2005 and 2017 will be the main analogs, it would only make sense.

[crownweather]

And FWIW, EPS mean 500 mb charts for mid/late May also shows possible mischief in the W Caribbean/southern Gulf of Mexico region.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1251874516978012161

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1251874516978012161

What exactly is he saying!?

[Kazmit]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1251874516978012161

What exactly is he saying!?

I couldn't comprehend that tweet either.

[cycloneye]

Alright, I mentioned in my post last night that I would post the current oceanic heat content with some comparisons to the oceanic heat content at this point in March for some other seasons which ended up being active.
NOW 2020:
https://i.imgur.com/l9QfPVC.jpg

2017:
https://i.imgur.com/XA1Kmmu.jpg

2010:
https://i.imgur.com/d9iMfdc.jpg

2005:
https://i.imgur.com/g0TgnEU.jpg

From what I can tell, 2010 seems to be about the closest match to the current heat content out in the Atlantic. I believe 2010 set a couple of record warm anomalies in the MDR region in the spring/early summer, it even beat out 2005, and the MDR was active that year, it was a very impressive season.
Now, other factors go into a season besides SST anomalies and the heat content that is available, but with heat content like this currently available, I believe it is quite possible it will continue to build, and we may end up seeing some pretty impressive warmth in the MDR during the hurricane season, and if you look at current SST anomalies, there already is.

On a quick side note, speaking of warm anomalies in the MDR, on a couple of occasions I’ve seen mention of the term Atlantic Nino. Currently along the equator between S. America and Africa, there are quite a few warm anomalies, does anyone know if this is an Atlantic Nino currently? I haven’t seen a lot of info on the subject, so I don’t know if there are any definitions for it, or qualifications that have to be met, or if this is just a loose term that hasn’t really been defined or given a lot of scientific merit.

I haven’t really set down numbers yet in my head, I’m watching other factors too and just waiting patiently to get past the spring predictability barrier, and I know that my numbers will probably change, possibly by quite a bit, once we get into May and we all start posting our numbers in the seasonal numbers thread. One idea I am starting to give more weight too though is the possibility of some pretty decent ACE generation out in the MDR this year. I think we have the potential setting up for some CV long-trackers, and with SSTs and heat content building like this in March, I think they will have a pretty high ceiling, maybe Irma or Isabel-like potential. NOTE: I am not forecasting another Irma or Isabel, just saying I think conditions may be setting up for a storm to potentially reach those kind of heights intensity-wise if all other factors come together in that storm’s favor.
I am really looking forward to when the seasonal thread opens up and everyone starts posting their thoughts and numbers, and I’m looking forward to passing the SPB. It’ll be interesting if forecasts start to flip once we get past that point.

Do you have the link to these Heat Content charts?

[Chris90]

Do you have the link to these Heat Content charts?

Sure thing!
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/

That's the main page and you can select through the different basins, it covers pretty much all of them so you can get more than just the Atlantic.

Quick note about the archives though: You can navigate dates between 2011-2018 using the month/day/year dropdown menu. If you want a date outside of those years though, it's still possible, you just have to work a little harder.
1. Select a random date from the dropdown menu, example: June 2, 2015.
2. Once you've pulled up the page for that date, our example being June 2, 2015, look towards the bottom left corner. There will be a clickable link that says "Access the full list of dates." Click this and it'll pull up a page that is just a giant long list of all the dates available. It's how I got the maps for 2005 and 2010. I use the find function, I think it's "Ctrl+F" to find the date I'm looking for much faster.

I don't know why the dropdown menu only covers dates between 2011-2018 and you have to do those extra steps for all the dates outside of that. Hopefully my explanation makes sense, but if anyone has a question feel free to ask me, I'll do my best to help.

[TheStormExpert]

Since at the moment it looks like 2020 will be another at the very least above normal hurricane season in the Atlantic now is the time to prepare especially since there is a pandemic ongoing.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/PzYBPG5ZPPU[/youtube]