Texas Spring 2020

[Ntxw]

Storm initiation likely plays key role today. Areas to the northeast/east of the metroplex and of course to the south/southeast has a better chance. Position of the surface low is not ideal and may dry slot much of us. Any cells that do fire up will produce quite a bit of hail.

On a side note April has reversed course from March. It has been well below normal in temperature and rainfall is running below normal as well with just a little over an inch (April is one of the wetter months).

Could you explain a bit more on the dry-slotting? It doesnt look like capping or moisture are a problem to me. Is it something to do with how forcing on that side of the system affects convective development?

Surface low/upper feature moving just to our north, usually from west TX/south Plains region northeastward through Oklahoma is not a favorable mechanism for lift in North Texas. It applies both for winter and spring. Dry air wrapping in from the southwest can cutoff the forcing needed. It can be overcome if the STJ is strong and/or sufficient moist/tropical-subtropical connection from the Pacific. The latter of the two is currently missing to overcome it. The Gulf is extremely warm and moist this Spring thus areas well to the east does not need the Pacific source.

[bubba hotep]

From NWS Ft. Worth:
They moved the large hail and tornado threat to the West from Waco to Ft. Worth to between Bowie and Denton.

Today will remain fairly active as a dryline approaches the region from the west. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible starting late this morning and through the afternoon hours. All types of severe weather will be possible. Make sure to remain weather aware today and have a trusted weather sources in case severe weather threatens your location.

This is a pretty strong tip of the hat as to what SPC will do with the next update, as they typically coordinate with the local offices on updates.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

The FWD graphic moved the red to Fort Worth for later timing and added more of a tornado threat.

Deleting so as not to imply I was forecasting. Way wrong.

[cheezyWXguy]

The FWD graphic moved the red to Fort Worth for later timing and added more of a tornado threat.

Is it just me, or does it seem that the HUMANS are moving the target zone slightly to the west, but the MODELS seem to keep the target zone more to the east?

If thats the case, the latest HRRR seems to be jumping ship and swimming to the human side. Supercell scraping the dallas/collin border at 21z. Just one model run though.

[bubba hotep]

14z HRRR seems to be picking up on the lack of junk convection across N. TX this morning and now fires a big supercell off the dryline later today.

[CaptinCrunch]

Models did not do a good job with this morning storm chances, it's all North an South of the D/FW area. The main threat will come this afternoon as the dryline moves in, but again it's going to be dependant on forcing and lift, and moisture content.

[bubba hotep]

[cheezyWXguy]

15z HRRR is now showing multiple supercells in the immediate DFW area. Not good.

[Haris]

severe thunderstorm in Austin this morning. Got a quick .4” of rain, small hail, and intense lightning. Great feeling!

[Brent]

15z HRRR is now showing multiple supercells in the immediate DFW area. Not good.

Yeah let's not

[TexasF6]

Welllll now the HRRR says supercells in the DFW area this afternoon!!!!

[rwfromkansas]

They aren't the piddly little showers it showed earlier either. They are getting bigger and significant now.

[Brent]

I dunno if it's right but it's disturbing how consistent it is

[HockeyTx82]

So here in Denton it's very cloudy. What impact could that have not having the sun out?

Also, could the storms the south prevent moisture from feeding into NTX?

Just curious.

[cheezyWXguy]

So here in Denton it's very cloudy. What impact could that have not having the sun out?

Also, could the storms the south prevent moisture from feeding into NTX?

Just curious.

The clouds wont have much impact, they should clear out in about 2 hours, and the atmosphere will rapidly destabilize if that is the case. As for moisture feed, I don't see this as much of an issue. Dew points are currently in the mid 60s in DFW and approaching 70 near the dryline. Models that depict the convection in SE TX still show dew points reaching the 70s ahead of the dryline as it approaches.

[WacoWx]

Is there anyway to determine where the dry line is located?

[cheezyWXguy]

Is there anyway to determine where the dry line is located?

SPC mesoanalysis works. Under the Surface option you can select Temp/Wind/Dwpt. The dryline is to the west where moisture sharply drops off.

[EnnisTx]

Is there anyway to determine where the dry line is located?

Looks like it's somewhere between Vernon and Wichita Falls to the North and Breckenridge and Mineral Wells to the South about an hour ago.

[bubba hotep]

Is there anyway to determine where the dry line is located?

SPC mesoanalysis works. Under the Surface option you can select Temp/Wind/Dwpt. The dryline is to the west where moisture sharply drops off.

Texas Mesonet updates pretty often, find the surface low, then follow the above.

[EnnisTx]

Is there anyway to determine where the dry line is located?

SPC mesoanalysis works. Under the Surface option you can select Temp/Wind/Dwpt. The dryline is to the west where moisture sharply drops off.

Texas Mesonet updates pretty often, find the surface low, then follow the above.

https://i.ibb.co/MGztf0P/dryline.png

It's almost 1:00 pm and it's a good way out to the West... we may be in trouble here in the late afternoon..