2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[cycloneye]

The real deal is that 100% El Niño will not be present and only that guarantees an active North Atlantic season. If is cool Neutral or Weak La Niña is not the important thing because is what I said at the start of the post. How active will be depends on other factors besides ENSO.

[WeatherEmperor]

Here is the latest of what the other major ENSO models show for September




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[aspen]

Here is the latest of what the other major ENSO models show for September

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200422/49d0c36efce6612b71d4764ff3134c08.jpg


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I think it’s pretty safe to say we’re going to have a cool ENSO during the peak of the season, but not quite a full-blown La Niña — at least, right now that’s what it seems like. We still have a few more weeks before we get past the Spring Barrier, plenty of time for things to change in either direction.

[USTropics]

I don't see how this cool pocket of subsurface anomalies doesn't disrupt the current El Nino thresholds (it already has begun to split the warm anomalies). ENSO cool neutral is the most likely outcome, as the model mean is predicting in WeatherEmperor's image above.

[Chris90]

Here are some nifty animations showing how the Atlantic and Pacific SST anomalies have evolved over the past 30 days:



And here’s how the 7 day SST trend (warming/cooling) has been evolving over the past 30 days:



For a longer look at how the Atlantic and Pacific SST anomalies have evolved, here’s 90 days:


The Atlantic has been holding pretty steady with its warmer anomalies over the past 90 days. Cooler anomalies have popped up, but there haven’t been any truly noticeable larger patches of cooler anomalies that have managed to take hold yet.
The ENSO regions are another interesting thing to look at, they’ve been warming, but this is the warmer anomalies at the top of the subsurface that have been surfacing throughout the time period. There is a pretty large patch of cooler anomalies underneath the warm anomalies at the subsurface, so I bet in another 90 days the 90 day animation will show things switching up with the cooler anomalies surfacing.

For anyone that wants to access the images for yourself, here is the link: https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5km/
You can also access archived images there as well just a little farther down the page.

[Patrick99]

In my years of tracking hurricanes i don't think i have seen sst's around FL and the bahamas this extreme warm ( this early). If things don't change it may very well have consequences if any tropical identity gets in there.

https://i.imgur.com/y9008vE.png

Much closer look by screenshot.

https://i.imgur.com/FJq6spG.jpg

That area is going to be a problem if anything gets there (or forms there). At this point, it's probably only a hyperactive SFL May-June rainy season that could conceivably tamp that down a bit, if there are weeks and weeks of clouds and storms....and I feel like we don't really get those anymore, so......

[TheStormExpert]

In my years of tracking hurricanes i don't think i have seen sst's around FL and the bahamas this extreme warm ( this early). If things don't change it may very well have consequences if any tropical identity gets in there.

https://i.imgur.com/y9008vE.png

Much closer look by screenshot.

https://i.imgur.com/FJq6spG.jpg

That area is going to be a problem if anything gets there (or forms there). At this point, it's probably only a hyperactive SFL May-June rainy season that could conceivably tamp that down a bit, if there are weeks and weeks of clouds and storms....and I feel like we don't really get those anymore, so......

Even with the record warm waters surrounding Florida on both coasts I’ve noticed that even the fronts and their associated squall lines have been lacking especially the further south you go down the peninsula.

[TheStormExpert]

Chaser dude Josh Morgerman saying it how it is, SST’s are just one piece in determining the type of activity we see in any given Atlantic Hurricane Season.

 https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1253371305836949505




 https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1253372621263003648

[toad strangler]

Chaser dude Josh Morgerman saying it how it is, SST’s are just one piece in determining the type of activity we see in any given Atlantic Hurricane Season.

https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1253371305836949505

https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1253372621263003648

Has anybody said otherwise here? Not that I can find. I think that knowledge is already a given in a thread like this. Josh is talking to a ton of people who don't follow this stuff much at all.

[toad strangler]

Chaser dude Josh Morgerman saying it how it is, SST’s are just one piece in determining the type of activity we see in any given Atlantic Hurricane Season.

https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1253371305836949505

https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1253372621263003648

Has anybody said otherwise here? Not that I can find. I think that knowledge is already a given in a thread like this. Josh is talking to a ton of people who don't follow this stuff as intensely as this place does.

[Shell Mound]

Oh boy.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1252979221540016128
And this reply from Webb. Looks like the wave train will start early.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1252983359355092992

Follow-up(s):
 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1253395673459851266



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1253396211719114752



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1253397347972808705



Additionally:
 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1253403362697117700



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1253408005187448832

[JPmia]

Eric Webb:
"The large-scale low frequency forcing signals are strongly hinting at above average activity in the Gulf, Caribbean, & far SW Atlantic this year. The NMME not forecasting a bone dry Caribbean in the heart of the season for the first time (basically ever) at this lead is a huge clue that this year is going to probably be much different than the last several seasons. This is 2020 after all... ;/"

http://disq.us/p/28tn057

[TheStormExpert]

Chaser dude Josh Morgerman saying it how it is, SST’s are just one piece in determining the type of activity we see in any given Atlantic Hurricane Season.

https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1253371305836949505

https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1253372621263003648

Has anybody said otherwise here? Not that I can find. I think that knowledge is already a given in a thread like this. Josh is talking to a ton of people who don't follow this stuff much at all.

I’m just stating it how it is, some people may not know that believe it or not.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1253452270391275520

[AnnularCane]

What's a standing wave and what does it mean?

[Chris90]

What's a standing wave and what does it mean?

I know I'm not going to explain this as well as others, so maybe someone will explain better than me, but I'm going to give it a shot.

In the graphic from Ben Noll that cycloneye posted, do you see how the green/blue anomalies seem to continuously hover, or you could say, stand, on the 60E longitude line? Those green/blue anomalies are enhanced convection. It's showing that the MJO is going to continuously favor Africa/Indian Ocean, which indicates that it's going to enhance the West African Monsoon, which would enhance tropical waves while also making SAL less of an issue because it'll cut down on the amount of dust outbreaks that occur as well as lessening the intensity of the dust outbreaks. It would favor stronger tropical waves emerging off Africa, plus cut down on SAL which is detrimental to them + their development.
In May/June this might favor early season development. If that standing wave remains though and persists throughout August/September, coupled with potential for a continued warmer MDR, it could be another piece in the puzzle that helps to greatly enhance the Cape Verde hurricane season during peak months.

[AnnularCane]

What's a standing wave and what does it mean?

I know I'm not going to explain this as well as others, so maybe someone will explain better than me, but I'm going to give it a shot.

In the graphic from Ben Noll that cycloneye posted, do you see how the green/blue anomalies seem to continuously hover, or you could say, stand, on the 60E longitude line? Those green/blue anomalies are enhanced convection. It's showing that the MJO is going to continuously favor Africa/Indian Ocean, which indicates that it's going to enhance the West African Monsoon, which would enhance tropical waves while also making SAL less of an issue because it'll cut down on the amount of dust outbreaks that occur as well as lessening the intensity of the dust outbreaks. It would favor stronger tropical waves emerging off Africa, plus cut down on SAL which is detrimental to them + their development.
In May/June this might favor early season development. If that standing wave remains though and persists throughout August/September, coupled with potential for a continued warmer MDR, it could be another piece in the puzzle that helps to greatly enhance the Cape Verde hurricane season during peak months.

You did fine, thanks!

[Chris90]

What's a standing wave and what does it mean?

I know I'm not going to explain this as well as others, so maybe someone will explain better than me, but I'm going to give it a shot.

In the graphic from Ben Noll that cycloneye posted, do you see how the green/blue anomalies seem to continuously hover, or you could say, stand, on the 60E longitude line? Those green/blue anomalies are enhanced convection. It's showing that the MJO is going to continuously favor Africa/Indian Ocean, which indicates that it's going to enhance the West African Monsoon, which would enhance tropical waves while also making SAL less of an issue because it'll cut down on the amount of dust outbreaks that occur as well as lessening the intensity of the dust outbreaks. It would favor stronger tropical waves emerging off Africa, plus cut down on SAL which is detrimental to them + their development.
In May/June this might favor early season development. If that standing wave remains though and persists throughout August/September, coupled with potential for a continued warmer MDR, it could be another piece in the puzzle that helps to greatly enhance the Cape Verde hurricane season during peak months.

You did fine, thanks!

No problem, I do want to mention that I was thinking about it, and I think I've also read that an enhanced West African Monsoon (WAM) can also enhance dust outbreaks, at least temporarily, so I will say that when it comes to the issue of SAL and dust outbreaks, I'm very uncertain. I think SAL could go either way.

A standing wave over Africa will enhance convection though and give those waves an extra spark if a standing wave does indeed set up shop there, and if it continues until peak season, SAL will be less of an issue anyways once we get to August/September.

[CyclonicFury]

Remember that many very active to even hyperactive seasons don't even have their first hurricane until August. 2017 did not have a single hurricane until August 9. 2004 did not have its first hurricane until

Environmental conditions could suggest a more active early season than usual, but there's a high chance the Atlantic doesn't have its first hurricane until August 3. Although 2010 had Hurricane Alex in late June/early July, it did not have its second hurricane until August 23. From June to mid-August, SAL outbreaks over the MDR are quite common, and trade winds are often quite strong, which is why we typically don't see significant MDR activity until late August. I can almost guarantee you there will be some season cancelling on this thread in 3-4 months, it happens every year. Even then, that does not mean the season will be quiet.

I still think the season will likely be above average to possibly well above average, but history says it's unlikely we will come close to 1933 or 2005 level activity in terms of ACE.

[USTropics]

ECMWF is in agreement with a consistent CFS and JMA forecast for velocity potential through June-July of what an active pattern would look like.

This is what velocity potential looks like for nonactive years (limited MDR and early season activity):


This is what velocity potential looks like for active years (active MDR and early season activity):


JMA forecast:


CFS forecast: