EPAC: ONE-E - Remnants

[Chris90]

The probabilities that have been showing up in the SHIPS RI index have been surprising to me. It's probably overdone, yes, but just to have it showing those kind of probabilities for an April EPAC invest is quite surprising.
It does seem to be getting better organized though, so maybe we will get a record-breaker after all.

[Nancy Smar]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240143
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 PM PDT Thu Apr 23 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of
disturbed weather located well south-southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better
organized today in association with a broad area of low pressure
located about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions are favorable
for some gradual development, and a tropical depression could form
in the next day or two as the system moves slowly northwestward. By
late this weekend, conditions will become less conducive for
development. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 8 AM PDT Friday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Yellow Evan]

I was convinced this might just take off given it has time and it seems to be progressing but this still looks mediocre on IR. Climo certainly isn't in its favor but enjoy the fact it has a real chance of happening at least.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902020 04/24/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 40 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 40 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 22 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 12 7 3 4 5 11 19 25 32 38 38 35
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 4 5 4 0 1 3 1 0 0 3
SHEAR DIR 213 213 218 197 117 203 246 258 258 256 261 279 285
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 27.9 27.3 26.8 26.1 25.1 23.8 23.6 23.0
POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 152 149 142 135 130 123 112 99 97 90
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 62 61 58 57 53 52 50 44 40 33
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 5 4 3 2
850 MB ENV VOR -4 -5 -12 -13 -17 -37 -41 -53 -50 -36 -29 -36 -54
200 MB DIV 175 207 176 139 102 42 -33 0 4 11 -18 -8 -7
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 2 0 6 3 11 10 15
LAND (KM) 1314 1343 1367 1380 1355 1304 1249 1221 1213 1202 1216 1244 1239
LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.7 13.7 14.6 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.5 18.5
LONG(DEG W) 113.3 113.9 114.4 114.9 115.3 116.1 116.8 117.6 118.5 119.3 120.4 121.4 122.2
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 59 50 46 42 38 23 10 4 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 27. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -8. -12. -15.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 15. 10. 4. -4. -13. -20. -26.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 113.3

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 04/24/20 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 6.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.63 5.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 159.8 -33.0 to 156.2 1.00 7.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.43 2.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 4.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 45.7% 30.3% 0.0% 0.0% 34.9% 23.8% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.6% 20.3% 24.2% 6.4% 1.2% 1.9% 0.2% 1.8%
Bayesian: 0.3% 2.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.0% 22.9% 18.5% 2.3% 0.4% 12.4% 8.2% 0.6%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 04/24/20 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##

[Hammy]

Has there ever been a tropical storm in any Western Hemisphere basin in April of tropical origin?

[Yellow Evan]

Has there ever been a tropical storm in any Western Hemisphere basin in April of tropical origin?

Technically there has been in the Southern Hemisphere, but not in the Northern and Western Hemisphere.

[Yellow Evan]

Much better. No longer SW to NE elongated though the center is on the right side of the convection. Signs of actual banding and excellent poleward outflow.

[Chris90]

I don't know, I'm thinking this might be worthy of classification now.

Looks like there might be a lower level elliptical cyan ring forming. It's elliptical, so it's a bit elongated, but this was from 4 hours ago. It might be tightening this up now, looks like 90E might be in the beginning stages of building an eyewall at the lower levels.


At the mid levels it appears to be starting to wrap some deeper convection around as well.


I think this might have a shot at being a 55-60kt Tropical Storm. Those RI Indexes from SHIPS might not be so out there after all if it is building a cyan ring and if it can maintain it.

[Yellow Evan]

It's upper level outflow is impressive enough that I wouldn't rule out it being one of those systems with an eyewall and only T3.0ish numbers from SAB and TAFB. It's kinda getting that look already to be honest and conditions are decent if not improving for the next 36-48 hours.

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 90, 2020042406, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1136W, 30, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 300, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,

[Kingarabian]

This should be classified as Amanda.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902020 04/24/20 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 46 45 37 29 18 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 46 45 37 29 18 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 32 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 8 3 4 4 10 16 23 29 34 38 29 32
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 7 8 9 1 1 6 3 0 -2 4 -1
SHEAR DIR 217 218 199 136 174 243 257 264 258 253 272 275 288
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.6 27.0 26.1 24.6 23.5 23.2 22.9 22.4
POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 149 145 139 132 123 107 95 92 90 84
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.8 -54.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 1 1 1 0
700-500 MB RH 65 63 62 60 57 55 54 50 51 45 41 34 31
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
850 MB ENV VOR -4 -9 -12 -19 -26 -39 -43 -47 -32 -25 -35 -55 -50
200 MB DIV 191 173 140 113 89 -4 -9 0 7 -6 -20 -16 -26
700-850 TADV 0 -4 -6 -4 0 0 2 -1 7 10 9 15 15
LAND (KM) 1312 1320 1338 1322 1294 1235 1192 1175 1144 1161 1191 1218 1200
LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.5 13.6 14.7 15.7 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.7 19.7
LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.0 114.5 115.0 115.5 116.4 117.3 118.2 119.1 120.1 121.1 122.1 122.8
STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 57 51 44 38 30 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 21. 20. 18.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -6. -11. -14. -16.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. -5. -6.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 15. 7. -1. -12. -23. -30. -36.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 113.6

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 04/24/20 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 7.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.74 9.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 141.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.92 9.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.40 3.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 6.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.89 -0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 4.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 19.2% 61.8% 44.4% 31.6% 0.0% 33.9% 22.8% 0.0%
Logistic: 24.4% 61.3% 69.3% 33.0% 7.8% 5.7% 0.1% 1.0%
Bayesian: 9.4% 28.6% 34.0% 16.7% 1.0% 4.7% 2.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 17.7% 50.5% 49.2% 27.1% 2.9% 14.7% 8.4% 0.3%
DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 04/24/20 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Nancy Smar]

WTPN21 PHNC 240900
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6N 113.3W TO 14.9N 116.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 113.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 250900Z.
//

[cycloneye]

80%

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
605 AM PDT Fri Apr 24 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of
disturbed weather located well south-southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula.

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better
organized in association with a broad area of low pressure
located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions are favorable
for additional gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in the next day or two as the system moves slowly
northwestward. By late this weekend, conditions will become less
conducive for development. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this system will be issued by 2 PM PDT Friday, or earlier, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[aspen]

That might actually be a TD right now. The 12z best track update is 30 kt and 1007 mbar, and it’s looking like a legitimate TC.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricanehink]

Has there ever been a tropical storm in any Western Hemisphere basin in April of tropical origin?

Yes, Carmen in 1980, although the storm originated in WPaC and moved into the CPAC

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Carmen_(1980)

[TheAustinMan]

Latest "rainbow" IR animation. Definitely a rare sight for April in the western hemisphere!

3.7MB. Source: Generated myself.

[SouthDadeFish]

Starting to look like we will have the earliest TC formation on record in the EPAC. I'd say this is a TC right now. Remarkable early season development.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902020 04/24/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 34 36 37 36 32 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 30 33 34 36 37 36 32 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 32 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 15 23 28 34 41 34 32 35
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 7 10 5 0 1 4 2 -4 1 2 -3
SHEAR DIR 212 188 147 178 203 257 268 266 263 265 278 279 296
SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.0 26.1 24.9 23.7 23.4 23.3 22.9 21.6
POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 148 144 140 132 123 111 98 95 94 89 75
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.7 -54.7 -55.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 0
700-500 MB RH 62 61 58 57 58 55 51 51 49 43 37 29 30
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 4 3 2 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -7 -8 -17 -30 -39 -40 -50 -39 -32 -28 -42 -50 -49
200 MB DIV 155 113 80 58 19 -14 2 4 12 -14 -9 -13 -17
700-850 TADV -3 -5 -3 0 0 2 0 5 5 13 9 17 8
LAND (KM) 1312 1316 1286 1269 1246 1205 1206 1193 1200 1237 1280 1281 1236
LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.3 14.4 15.3 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.3 20.3
LONG(DEG W) 114.1 114.6 115.1 115.6 116.1 117.1 118.2 119.3 120.3 121.5 122.6 123.5 124.0
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 49 41 33 25 16 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 17. 19. 19. 18. 15.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -5. -11. -16. -19. -21.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -5. -14. -25. -34. -40. -45.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 114.1

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 04/24/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 5.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.76 6.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 4.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.29 1.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 4.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.87 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 18.3% 40.5% 28.7% 21.7% 0.0% 21.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 27.7% 52.8% 60.4% 20.9% 6.8% 1.3% 0.0% 0.4%
Bayesian: 36.4% 20.8% 13.2% 7.4% 0.1% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Consensus: 27.4% 38.1% 34.1% 16.7% 2.3% 8.2% 0.1% 0.1%
DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 04/24/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##