EPAC: ONE-E - Remnants

[MGC]

90E is looking pretty good this morning. Nice banding and plenty of convection. TD soon perhaps?......MGC

[Astromanía]

Nice to see EPAC getting attention!
Wow what a nice system, EPAC surprising us once again, I was saying just an invest earlier but it seems we will see our first system after all! Amazing start of the season!

[TheStormExpert]

Well I spoke too soon yesterday saying Invest 90E was in a harsh environment.

[Yellow Evan]

I was fully on board the classification trend earlier this morning but convection has decreased quite a bit in recent frames compared to the nice comma shape it had several hours ago.

[aspen]

I was fully on board the classification trend earlier this morning but convection has decreased quite a bit in recent frames compared to the nice comma shape it had several hours ago.

Perhaps it attained TC status earlier today and is already on its way out?

[hurricanes1234]

I was fully on board the classification trend earlier this morning but convection has decreased quite a bit in recent frames compared to the nice comma shape it had several hours ago.

I noticed this as well. Do you think it might just be diurnal variation or part of something bigger?

[Yellow Evan]

I was fully on board the classification trend earlier this morning but convection has decreased quite a bit in recent frames compared to the nice comma shape it had several hours ago.

I noticed this as well. Do you think it might just be diurnal variation or part of something bigger?

Changes in shear direction perhaps.

[hurricanes1234]

I was fully on board the classification trend earlier this morning but convection has decreased quite a bit in recent frames compared to the nice comma shape it had several hours ago.

I noticed this as well. Do you think it might just be diurnal variation or part of something bigger?

Changes in shear direction perhaps.

Oof. In truth, it's kinda looking a little bit hollowed out and the spin is less obvious.

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1245 PM PDT Fri Apr 24 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of
disturbed weather located well south-southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula.

The broad area of low pressure located about 750 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
has become a little better defined today. However, the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased somewhat during that
time. Environmental conditions are favorable for additional gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next
day or so as the system moves northwestward at around 10 mph. By
late this weekend, conditions will become less conducive for
development. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 8 PM PDT Friday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

[HurricaneEnzo]

Go 90E go! Set that record. I think it is going to pull it off. Convection building back in a little. Not extremely deep convection but its there.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1253804464575860736

[Chris90]

Even with the convection dying off for a little while there, the circulation doesn't seem to have fallen apart, and convection is building back in and expanding. This should look better 6-12 hours from now I think and might pull off the classification.
Amanda's do like breaking records. In 2014 she became the strongest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone observed during the month of May. I think it's time for Amanda to set a new record and be the only Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone observed during the month of April.

[Yellow Evan]

I can't say I'm thrilled at the overall reluctance to maintain convection. Development odds are dropping as we speak.

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 PM PDT Fri Apr 24 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Outlook issued to update discussion on the low pressure area
located well south-southwest of Baja California Sur.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California Sur have changed little in organization
today. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next day or so while the system moves northwestward at
around 10 mph. By Sunday, upper-level winds should become
unfavorable for development. The next Special Tropical Weather
Outlook on this system will be issued by 8 AM PDT Saturday, or
earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Kingarabian]

Tbh this looks better than a third of last seasons classified systems.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looks like it has gotten its act together somewhat the last couple of hours. Now to see if it can maintain. Still might have a shot.

[Chris90]

The NHC still seems fairly bullish on it considering they've maintained 80% chances. I just hope this isn't a tropical depression classification that never gets a name. I know there's a procedure for how they do all this and estimate intensity, but recon quite frequently finds tropical storm force winds in disorganized messes in the ATL. With decent enough convection I think I'd go ahead and assume 35kt winds were located somewhere. Hopefully we get some good ASCAT passes that'll earn it a name.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I think how well the system can take advantage of DMAX will be crucial in determining its fate. Convection appears to be popping towards the center again after its lapse earlier; if it can sustain it, then it will likely have a shot at classification sometime in the morning. But if it fails to do so, it will probably run out of time in another day or so as it marches into the drier, more stable airmass and cooler SSTs to its north and west.

[Kingarabian]

Its satellite structure looks great, its mid and low level structure's aren't bad. Its maintained decent convection close to the LLC and has had spiraling bands for the past 36 hours. It hasn't failed to maintain itself once in maybe the last 48 hours. All we're seeing is warming and cooling convection which is normal for weak systems. It's nearly impossible to get 100% verification in the EPAC due to a lack of sufficient obs. So I'm sorry if it seems I'm being a little critical of the NHC and this is not my intentions. But i'm not sure how this is not classified yet...

[Kingarabian]

The NHC still seems fairly bullish on it considering they've maintained 80% chances. I just hope this isn't a tropical depression classification that never gets a name. I know there's a procedure for how they do all this and estimate intensity, but recon quite frequently finds tropical storm force winds in disorganized messes in the ATL. With decent enough convection I think I'd go ahead and assume 35kt winds were located somewhere. Hopefully we get some good ASCAT passes that'll earn it a name.

Agreed 100%.