Oddball 2020 Hurricane Season Outlook Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 year / 60 year cycle)

[FireRat]

Alright guys, so I made this graphic below to add a visual take on this thread and show the tracks of all the big hurricanes of the Rat Year cycle that were mentioned in the parent posts's 2nd parameter. The white 'X' denotes a significant landfall point of those hurricanes. By 'significant', it is generally said to be a strong Cat 2 or greater, with winds of 105 mph+, so that way serious impacts like Ike 2008 aren't overlooked. I would make some exceptions for particularly devastating Cat 1 impacts like Agnes or Sandy though. Well here it is, have a look:

Fig 1: Significant Land-falling Hurricanes and their tracks during past Years of the Rat...



Just a few takeaways:
Cuba is such a magnet for hurricanes during these kinds of years! South FL, Northern half of the Gulf Coast, the Carolinas and the Leeward Islands aren't that lucky either. Perhaps places like the Northeast US and the Central America/ Bay of Campeche will be safer havens this year? It will be interesting to see how 2020's future tracks mix in with the above historical significant/major Rat Year tracks.

Feel free to save or copy this map if you like!

[DioBrando]

Possibly both regarding Ed '96, he was not tiny but instead more medium-sized and perhaps was stronger than his estimated 933 mb/ 145 mph.
I've never baked donuts lol! Maybe they should make 'hurricane themed' donuts at Dunkin, can you imagine!
I'll keep an eye on July/August dates that fit a numerology pattern of note!
Meanwhile check out this graphic I just finished making, illustrating the tracks of all the big landfalling hurricanes of the Years of the Rat past! ...

I see! Many people are saying he should be retroactively upgraded to C5 but IDEK tbh.
I think you could try when we're all inside? At home we've been baking with the family (and playing wack music on balconies but heya we're supporting one another) so I had nothing to do... and now I'm so tempted to bake donuts...
Imagine hurricane donuts at Dunkin... even better if they could match the actual shape of the hurricane on satellite....
And of course!

[DioBrando]

Alright guys, so I made this graphic below to add a visual take on this thread and show the tracks of all the big hurricanes of the Rat Year cycle that were mentioned in the parent posts's 2nd parameter. The white 'X' denotes a significant landfall point of those hurricanes. By 'significant', it is generally said to be a strong Cat 2 or greater, with winds of 105 mph+, so that way serious impacts like Ike 2008 aren't overlooked. I would make some exceptions for particularly devastating Cat 1 impacts like Agnes or Sandy though. Well here it is, have a look:

Significant Land-falling Hurricanes and their tracks during past Years of the Rat...

https://i.ibb.co/vvFWwHj/Hurricane-Map-2020-Rat-Year.jpg

Just a few takeaways:
Cuba is such a magnet for hurricanes during these kinds of years! South FL, Northern half of the Gulf Coast, the Carolinas and the Leeward Islands aren't that lucky either. Perhaps places like the Northeast US and the Central America/ Bay of Campeche will be safer havens this year? It will be interesting to see how 2020's future tracks mix in with the above historical significant/major Rat Year tracks.

Feel free to save or copy this map if you like!

Great map, btw! Love the cute lil rat btw. Ouch, the GOM looks like it took a battering... hopefully that won't be the case but that alone looks ominous...

[FireRat]

That's right my friend, this does look ominous for that part pf the basin as well as the islands, southeast US, pretty much in line with what the experts are thinking now in their early-season forecasts.

I would totally get a Hurricane Donut, make it look like Edouard or Irma, IR satellite so I could get lots of green and red frosting

That map above was quite a project, took me a few hours to make the map because there were so many significant landfallers! Looking at the data in this visual form, it's kind of crazy to think that because we just looked at the years of Rat, this is 240 years of data divided by 12, so really only 20 years, or 21 years of data including 1768.
This is the equivalent of comparing the above map with a map of significant landfallers during any 20yr intervals such as the yrs spanning 1999-2019.
Now imagine it comparing to the slower era, say 1970-1990.
It definitely goes to show the pattern of westward majors that curved to hit many of the Caribbean islands and Gulf/ Southeast US during these particular years.

[Chris90]

You know, with the talk about different cycles and their possible effect on hurricane activity, there is something about this year's list I've noticed that is kind of interesting.

First thing to remember is that there are 6 lists of names for both the Atlantic and the East Pacific. The Central Pacific has their own name list, but the CPAC and the EPAC get added up together for wikipedia counts of seasonal activity, as I think it should, as a lot of CPAC activity is from storms that get named in the EPAC and travel over there. Anyways, the important thing to remember is that there are 6 lists for both the ATL and the pacific and these lists cycle together, not differently, as both basins started using these lists in 1979. So this year we are using List VI for both the ATL and Pacific and it'll be the 7th time this list has been used since its first usage back in 1984.

I've noticed that since 1990, this list likes to alternate between high activity in the 2 basins, it switches back and forth between them with every use.

1990 season:
Pacific: 21/16/6, 4th highest ACE index for the basin, ACE of 245.
Atlantic: 14/8/1, ACE of 97.

Pacific was the active basin in 1990.

1996 season:
Pacific: 9/5/2, 4th lowest ACE index on record for the basin.
Atlantic: 13/9/6, ACE of 166.

Atlantic won 1996.

2002 season:
Pacific: 15/8/6, with 3 of the majors reaching Cat 5.
Atlantic: 12/4/2, and total ACE only at 67.

Pacific won 2002.

2008 season:
Pacific: 17/7/2, ACE of 83.
Atlantic: 16/8/5, ACE of 146.

Atlantic won 2008.

2014 season:
Pacific: 22/16/9, ACE of 199.
Atlantic: 8/6/2, ACE of 67.

Pacific won 2014.

Therefore, since these basins seem to switch off being active every time this list is used and considering it was the Pacific's turn last time, the cyclical/tag-team behavior of List VI would suggest that this will be a big year for the Atlantic.

Looking purely at number of majors, the active basin for List VI always produces at least 5, it's gone as high as 9, and it's been 6 on 3 different occasions (a little freaky.) Considering that though, I do feel pretty good about the 6 part of my 19/11/6 prediction.

Also, talking about numerology and numbers being used to make predictions: the last 2 times the Atlantic was below average with this list, 2002 and 2014, both years had an ACE index of 67.
Now, consider that this is List 6, 7th use = 67. Could the ACE index of both 2002 and 2014 been indicating that this would be an exceptionally busy, landmark season for the Atlantic?

[FireRat]

Wow Chris, very interesting observation indeed!!

That really is very curious, things seem to have been the exact opposite every 6 years! That numerology connection between the 67 ACE and the 6th list/ 7th use is odd too, kind of creepy huh. Who knows, maybe that is even more mystery adding to the 2020 season possibly being a landmark one!

You know, according to Chinese Astrology, there is a rule that the years six years apart are opposites on the zodiac too, meaning that the zodiac animal signs are opposite to each other 6yrs apart. In 2020's case, and all other years of the rat each 12 yrs, its opposite is the Year of the Horse, which was 2014, 2002, 1990 and so on!

Horse and Rat are opposites, and Horse years were incredibly busy consistently in the EPAC while the Rat years were consistently busy in the ATL. So we may actually be seeing a meteorological example of this Chinese Astrology rule playing out!

so yeah man, you and I might be onto something regarding the number of majors this year, if this mysterious pattern holds!

[FireRat]

Here's a new graphic guys, this time we strip away much of the spaghetti from Fig 1, and have a look at only the Years of the Metal Rat and their major hurricane landfalls in finer detail. The previous Metal Rat years considered are 1780, 1840, 1900, and 1960. These are the years that are exactly the same as 2020 according to the Chinese Zodiac, and only one of those didn't feature landfalling majors. Keep in mind the categories for 1780 aren't official, but this is how I think they went based on historical accounts. I tried to draw all the storm tracks here as close to reality as possible. Will we see storms like the ones below this year?

Fig 2: Major Landfalling Hurricanes in the Year of the Metal Rat. (1780 - 1960)


Notice that in most cases the Islands received a battering, ranging from the Lesser Antilles to Western Cuba, before the storms either turned north early or kept heading west/northwest into the Eastern US or Gulf. Furthermore, the majority of the landfalling hurricanes during these types of years were absolute monsters and very deadly. This could be the 60-year cycle at play.

Considering the above graphic for the Metal Rat years alone (Fig 2), and the first graphic showing all Rat years since 1768 and their significant hurricane tracks (Fig 1), we might be ready to experiment and attempt to predict where 2020's hurricanes could go and strike land in better detail. The next figure is purely experimental, and it shows which parts of the Atlantic basin might be at higher risk for significant Category 2+ landfalls. I've also thrown in five different storm tracks that we could see this year, based on a rough average of the past Years of the Rat. Here it is:

Fig 3: 2020 Significant Hurricane Risk Areas and Potential Tracks


This is the result of combining the 12-year cycle and the 60-year cycle implied by the Years of the Rat. If this zodiac experiment turn out to be anywhere near accurate, it won't be a pretty sight. Hoping that you folks in the islands get a break, but be watchful this year just in case!

Feel free to save or copy these images as well if you wish. These are simply my experimental graphics to illustrate what this wizardry has to say about 2020.

[DioBrando]

Here's a new graphic guys, this time we strip away much of the spaghetti from Fig 1, and have a look at only the Years of the Metal Rat and their major hurricane landfalls in finer detail. The previous Metal Rat years considered are 1780, 1840, 1900, and 1960. These are the years that are exactly the same as 2020 according to the Chinese Zodiac, and only one of those didn't feature landfalling majors. Keep in mind the categories for 1780 aren't official, but this is how I think they went based on historical accounts. I tried to draw all the storm tracks here as close to reality as possible. Will we see storms like the ones below this year?

Fig 2: Major Landfalling Hurricanes in the Year of the Metal Rat. (1780 - 1960)
https://i.ibb.co/ZfsGBSQ/1780-1900-1960.png

Notice that in most cases the Islands received a battering, ranging from the Lesser Antilles to Western Cuba, before the storms either turned north early or kept heading west/northwest into the Eastern US or Gulf. Furthermore, the majority of the landfalling hurricanes during these types of years were absolute monsters and very deadly. This could be the 60-year cycle at play.

Considering the above graphic for the Metal Rat years alone (Fig 2), and the first graphic showing all Rat years since 1768 and their significant hurricane tracks (Fig 1), we might be ready to experiment and attempt to predict where 2020's hurricanes could go and strike land in better detail. The next figure is purely experimental, and it shows which parts of the Atlantic basin might be at higher risk for significant Category 2+ landfalls. I've also thrown in five different storm tracks that we could see this year, based on a rough average of the past Years of the Rat. Here it is:

Fig 3: 2020 Significant Hurricane Risk Areas and Potential Tracks
https://i.ibb.co/8cXvH0d/2020-Hurricane-Risk-Areas.jpg

This is the result of combining the 12-year cycle and the 60-year cycle implied by the Years of the Rat. If this zodiac experiment turn out to be anywhere near accurate, it won't be a pretty sight. Hoping that you folks in the islands get a break, but be watchful this year just in case!

Feel free to save or copy these images as well if you wish. These are simply my experimental graphics to illustrate what this wizardry has to say about 2020.

Bro, why don't you make a blog post or Reddit about it? I think this should be more noted.

[FireRat]

thanks dude! I might just do something like that, reddit sounds interesting. I might make a youtube vid about it even. I agree that this stuff should be more noted, but since its such an off-kilter way to look at the hurricane season, I don't know how most folks might react.

You could say 2020 is like my guinea pig when it comes to actually making a prediction of the big picture of the coming hurricane season. It's gonna be an interesting experiment my friend, that's for sure!

[DioBrando]

thanks dude! I might just do something like that, reddit sounds interesting. I might make a youtube vid about it even. I agree that this stuff should be more noted, but since its such an off-kilter way to look at the hurricane season, I don't know how most folks might react.

You could say 2020 is like my guinea pig when it comes to actually making a prediction of the big picture of the coming hurricane season. It's gonna be an interesting experiment my friend, that's for sure!

yes please! you should also go to places like discord or reddit and talk about things like this too if you could!

[FireRat]

yes please! you should also go to places like discord or reddit and talk about things like this too if you could!

For sure bro, gonna see what I can do! It's gonna be a fun experiment indeed with this 2020 thing.

[DioBrando]

yes please! you should also go to places like discord or reddit and talk about things like this too if you could!

For sure bro, gonna see what I can do! It's gonna be a fun experiment indeed with this 2020 thing.

indeed!!!
there are other things my head is EXPLODING with right now

[FireRat]

dude, would love to hear what ur thinking!

[DioBrando]

dude, would love to hear what ur thinking!

I have way too much in my head right now

[FireRat]

dude, would love to hear what ur thinking!

I have way too much in my head right now

Sup man, was thinking of sending you a PM too, saw your message but it seems I can't reply to you there because of a settings issue on your end that is disabling receipt of pm for you.

[DioBrando]

dude, would love to hear what ur thinking!

I have way too much in my head right now

Sup man, was thinking of sending you a PM too, saw your message but it seems I can't reply to you there because of a settings issue on your end that is disabling receipt of pm for you.

I'm gonna fix it bro thanks for letting me know!

[FireRat]

sure thing bro, no probs!

[FireRat]

There's another possible telling sign of what's to come in the Atlantic relating to the year of the rat ... The Indian Ocean cyclone seasons during these same types of years.

It just so happens that the previous rat year of 2008 had a severe, killer cyclone named Nargis that struck Myanmar on 5/2, and now, in 2020 we are looking at another monstrous cyclone (Amphan) taking aim at India/Bangladesh this time around, due to slam ashore on 5/20. Lets hope that this one doesn't repeat the catastrophe that Nargis caused in 2008!

Looking further back to the rat year before that, there was another devastator in 1996 but in November, and it struck India's Andhra Pradesh.

Perhaps a nasty Indian Ocean cyclone season has some indication on what may be coming on the Atlantic side of things in the year of the rat, considering the past two Rat years were very eventful there and featured major landfalls. This to me gives one more reason to believe that this year could be like a mix of 1996 and 2008, and given the latest meteorological indicators for 2020 like SST's, I'd lean on this year being more like a bit busier version of 2008 with multiple landfalls in the Atlantic basin, especially the Islands and GOM. Florida and the Carolinas would not be out of the woods this year either.

Who knows, I do know that a few other bad Indian Ocean cyclone seasons did not foretell a bad landfall during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, but maybe in 2020 the Year of the Rat, this could be a true harbringer.

[Shell Mound]

FireRat, do you still think a FL-Gulf “crossover” in September (à la track #2) remains plausible—i.e., a track from Miami/Upper Keys over to the GoM?

[FireRat]

June 30 season's running totals.update...

4/0/0 as of June 30.
originally predicted 2/1/0 by today. Lots of early TS activity so far, still awaiting year's 1st 'cane!