WPAC: INVEST 94W

[Hayabusa]

94W INVEST 200427 1800 4.2N 136.8E WPAC 15 0

[1900hurricane]

Mostly weak development (think 01E) with the EPS members with the occasional stronger member.

[Nancy Smar]

94W INVEST 200428 0000 4.7N 135.5E WPAC 20 1007

ABPW10 PGTW 280100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/280100Z-280600ZAPR2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA) :
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.7N
135.5E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271858Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (<15 KNOT) VWS WITH EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM REACHING WARNING
CRITERIA BY TAU 72. FURTHERMORE, THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
94W TO CONTINUE ON A NORTH-WESTERLY TRACK. HOWEVER, PRIOR TO THIS
MODEL RUN THERE WAS SOME DISPARITY BETWEEN PREDICTED TRACKS FOR THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. : SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST) :
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO LOW.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

Well no wonder...

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 280000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 280000.
WARNING VALID 290000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 04N 135E WEST SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

Recently both the top models have been more significantly weaker esp. the euro, are they wrong again? They really hyped this one more than the previous invests early in the year.

[1900hurricane]

I still think it's possible we could see a TD/weak TS, but better convergence (especially with low latitude westerlies) may be confined to the IO.

[Hayabusa]

I still think it's possible we could see a TD/weak TS, but better convergence (especially with low latitude westerlies) may be confined to the IO.

I think I'd rather just be a TD at most, just a weak TS bearing the name "Vongfong" is meh

[Hayabusa]

It's gone, the top models blew out this one ... time to focus on model storms again...

ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/300600ZAPR2020-010600ZMAY2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

I guess they'll either reactivate or redesignate the invest later because guidance is still fairly insistent in developing a weak circulation.

[Jay Typhoon]

94W INVEST 200502 0000 7.1N 130.0E WPAC 15 1010

[1900hurricane]

Time is running out rather quickly for it to do anything before it's over Mindanao.