When do you think Arthur will form?
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- Kingarabian
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Re: When do you think Arthur will form?
I think towards the 3rd week or 4th week of May.
MJO is entering the IO, and will make it to the MC by May 02. I assume it will spend more time there due to the shifting ENSO phase specifically till the end of the first week of May, and quickly moving in and out of the Pacific by the 2nd week of May. That puts in the final two weeks of May in prime position.
MJO is entering the IO, and will make it to the MC by May 02. I assume it will spend more time there due to the shifting ENSO phase specifically till the end of the first week of May, and quickly moving in and out of the Pacific by the 2nd week of May. That puts in the final two weeks of May in prime position.
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Re: When do you think Arthur will form?
For those who have not voted there is still time as the poll closes on Monday at 5:42 PM.
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Re: When do you think Arthur will form?
This poll has closed for voting but those who want to discuss about this question go ahead.
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Re: When do you think Arthur will form?
Salute!
Not voting, but all should consider a front blasting thru the SE, then stalling and then a low forming in the Gulf or near the Bahamas. Could be anytime from next week to Memorial Day.
I am looking back to the mid-80's, but we have recently had Alberto, Ana, Andrea et all before 1 June. Alberto went in about 60 miles east of us a coupla years ago, and was no big deal. Michael made up for it!!
This spring we have not seen the usual strong fronts coming down on a schedule thru the Panhandle. Most have created more trouble to the north of us like the one this past weekend.
Gums sends...
Not voting, but all should consider a front blasting thru the SE, then stalling and then a low forming in the Gulf or near the Bahamas. Could be anytime from next week to Memorial Day.
I am looking back to the mid-80's, but we have recently had Alberto, Ana, Andrea et all before 1 June. Alberto went in about 60 miles east of us a coupla years ago, and was no big deal. Michael made up for it!!
This spring we have not seen the usual strong fronts coming down on a schedule thru the Panhandle. Most have created more trouble to the north of us like the one this past weekend.
Gums sends...
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Re: When do you think Arthur will form?
May
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Re: When do you think Arthur will form?
A storm forming in the later half of May is becoming increasingly likely due to signs pointing towards a potentially active early season. The question is how strong could such a storm get. If one develops, it would most likely be in the well warmer-than-average Gulf or western Caribbean. Maybe, if everything works out for it, we could see a strong TS or a weak Cat 1 pop up between May 20th-30th.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: When do you think Arthur will form?
aspen wrote:A storm forming in the later half of May is becoming increasingly likely due to signs pointing towards a potentially active early season. The question is how strong could such a storm get. If one develops, it would most likely be in the well warmer-than-average Gulf or western Caribbean. Maybe, if everything works out for it, we could see a strong TS or a weak Cat 1 pop up between May 20th-30th.
Agreed, however I'm seeing another scenario possibly play out. Possibly more then one sub-tropical feature that might develop. One in the more common climatological arena as mentioned above, but I could very easily see NHC tagging some N. Atlantic baroclinic low that might deepen and take on some very marginal tropical characteristics for a couple days. Mind you, this alone should not be particlularly indicative of an active season but is certainly a factor weighing into my own seasonal forecast and a bit of an additional hedge that might suggest (on paper anyway) a higher then average number of named storms when all is said and done. What i'd be more interested in is seeing the origin, date, and track of the first fully tropical tropical cyclone to form. I think this would be a better indicator of just how busy (and deadly) the upcoming season might just be.
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Re: When do you think Arthur will form?
Looks like the users that voted May have at least a 50% chance to be right.
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Re: When do you think Arthur will form?
CyclonicFury wrote:Looks like the users that voted May have at least a 50% chance to be right.
80% now. Of course that’s 30 of the 50 participants that voted. Now onto Bertha assuming 90L becomes Arthur.
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Re: When do you think Arthur will form?
TheStormExpert wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:Looks like the users that voted May have at least a 50% chance to be right.
80% now. Of course that’s 30 of the 50 participants that voted. Now onto Bertha assuming 90L becomes Arthur.
We now have Arthur on May 16th, voters like me were correct in voting May. This is now the 6th year in a row with at least one pre-season named storm dating back to 2015.
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Re: When do you think Arthur will form?
I usually don't vote for May in these polls because I would think the preseason streak has to end eventually, but I keep getting proven wrong.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: When do you think Arthur will form?
I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict Arthur will develop........ yesterday
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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