Texas Spring 2020

[South Texas Storms]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/CHpQJyb/C5-BFE6-B0-411-C-48-FC-B77-F-EE1-B67-F3-BE9-A.gif [/url]

It is a major over performer here!!

What a change of luck!!

Lucky! Storms going poof as they reach SA...typical

[weatherdude1108]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/CHpQJyb/C5-BFE6-B0-411-C-48-FC-B77-F-EE1-B67-F3-BE9-A.gif [/url]

It is a major over performer here!!

What a change of luck!!

Lucky! Storms going poof as they reach SA...typical

That sucks. They were under a Significant Weather Advisory, which just expired at 7:15. I was hoping it would tap into the instability there. Looks like they got the outflow boundary from the Austin storms. Was hoping my dad and brothers in SA could share wet news. Man.

[Cpv17]

Closing in on 5” here in central Wharton County this morning. Biggest rain of the year.

[weatherdude1108]

I didn't get nearly what Cpv17 got, but mine registered between 0.5" and 0.75" early this morning with the heavy thunderstorms that moved through. Nice.

Looks like "July" for the next several days. Ugh.

[CaptinCrunch]

Not nearly as much wind as I expected given the radar presentation

I was downstairs watching out on the patio and kept waiting for more

58mph gust at DFW airport. Pretty standard line, albeit broken on the western end. Nothing too extraordinary. Not much lightning or thunder at the airport to report, brief downpour.

Correct on that, the storm Tuesday morning @ my house was by far more intense than anything I saw last night. I excaped both rounds with no hail, not much wind, and just moderate rainfall.

[Brent]

Guys I think there's more wind now than there was last night

[wxman22]

I would say at least the Enhanced risk was warranted.

[Haris]

1” on the dot this morning. Pushing over 4” this month.

[weatherdude1108]

Going from April straight to July.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
242 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Clear skies and mild overnight low temperatures can be expected
across south central Texas tonight. With weak high pressure over
east Texas, our surface winds will become southerly across most
areas. Lows will be pretty close to climatological normals, with
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to the mid 60s.

Gusty south winds will signal a warming trend tomorrow. Shallow
moisture in the low-levels will mix out and with plenty of sunshine,
we should see highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The beginning of May will feel more like the beginning of July. An
upper level ridge will move across the Southern Plains over the
weekend and early next week while surface high pressure settles over
the Gulf. The low level flow will be from the southeast keeping warm,
moist air over South Central Texas. Temperatures will warm slowly
during this timeframe. High temperatures Saturday will be in the 90s
most places with the upper 90s along the Rio Grande. They will
increase slightly each day until Tuesday when most places will be
middle to upper 90s with triple digits from San Antonio to Del Rio
and southward. Wednesday a cold front will bring relief from the
heat, but probably no rain. There is some model disagreement on
whether this front will produce any precipitation with the GFS being
wetter than the ECMWF. The blended guidance is dry and we have used
that for now. There will be cooler air behind this boundary and highs
Wednesday will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Tuesday.

[Brent]

first time in awhile there's zero rain chances

Sunday/Monday is definitely gonna resemble July

[Cpv17]

Big differences in the models right now between the Euro and GFS.

[lukem]

Big differences in the models right now between the Euro and GFS.

What’s the Euro showing? Looks like the GFS is showing decent rain for much if the state.

[Cpv17]

Big differences in the models right now between the Euro and GFS.

What’s the Euro showing? Looks like the GFS is showing decent rain for much if the state.

The Euro is a lot drier.

[Brent]

for those not wanting summer... the GFS has the weekend of the 9th-10th extremely cold vs what happens the next few days DFW is pretty much below 60 both days. Saturday afternoon it's barely 50 this would verbatim threaten record low maximums (for the record the coldest May high for Dallas is 49)

[Cpv17]

for those not wanting summer... the GFS has the weekend of the 9th-10th extremely cold vs what happens the next few days DFW is pretty much below 60 both days. Saturday afternoon it's barely 50 this would verbatim threaten record low maximums (for the record the coldest May high for Dallas is 49)

https://i.ibb.co/nzLSwgB/gfs-T2ma-scus-40.png

The 0z Euro has it now too along with a whole bunch of rain. Has a spot just a few miles north of Boerne with nearly 12”.

[EnnisTx]

for those not wanting summer... the GFS has the weekend of the 9th-10th extremely cold vs what happens the next few days DFW is pretty much below 60 both days. Saturday afternoon it's barely 50 this would verbatim threaten record low maximums (for the record the coldest May high for Dallas is 49)

https://i.ibb.co/nzLSwgB/gfs-T2ma-scus-40.png

I'll take that all Summer long.

[captainbarbossa19]

for those not wanting summer... the GFS has the weekend of the 9th-10th extremely cold vs what happens the next few days DFW is pretty much below 60 both days. Saturday afternoon it's barely 50 this would verbatim threaten record low maximums (for the record the coldest May high for Dallas is 49)

https://i.ibb.co/nzLSwgB/gfs-T2ma-scus-40.png

The 0z Euro has it now too along with a whole bunch of rain. Has a spot just a few miles north of Boerne with nearly 12”.

Right now, I really have little confidence in anything the models are projecting. On Tuesday, short-term models did not show any precipitation arriving until the line of storms after midnight on Wednesday. However, many thunderstorms developed around noon on Tuesday east of Houston, and many areas received 3 inches of rain or more before the line arrived. While this was a short-term model error, even the mid-range and long-range models have not been doing so well as of late. Small changes in weather patterns can certainly have large-scale effects in the models. I think that this is part of the problem, but as I said before, I think the algorithms used in the past were better for several models than what is currently in use.

On a slightly different note, I do think that at least the SE TX region is beginning to return to a more normal/slightly wetter than normal pattern. In March, I barely recorded half an inch for the whole month. However in April, I recorded about 4 inches of rain and it was spread out over the whole month. While this may not be a good indicator of what is to come, I do believe that the pattern is now not nearly as dry as it was. This is just my opinion though.

[weatherdude1108]

This looks more encouraging for south and southeast Texas fwiw.

[weatherdude1108]

1984 sticks out as record heat days for May. I remember that year as a kid and the talk of drought in the news at the time. The lower aquifer levels in San Antonio were a big story. First time I had heard of the aquifer was 1984.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 011944
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
244 PM CDT Fri May 1 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
A low amplitude upper level ridge will move across Texas during the
period. Surface high pressure will be centered over the central Gulf
coast and the low level flow will be southerly to southeasterly.
This will bring warm, moist air into South Central Texas. Subsident
flow will keep the weather dry through the short term. Temperatures
will continue to warm. After a couple of chilly mornings low
temperatures Saturday will be near to a few degrees above normal.
Highs Saturday will be a couple of degrees warmer than Friday. Lows
Sunday will be up a few degrees from Saturday. The pressure gradient
will tighten during the day Saturday and winds will be breezy at 10
to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
A warming trend is expected Sunday and Monday across South Central
Texas. By Monday and Tuesday high temperatures are forecast to be in
the mid to upper 90s for most areas, with 100-104 forecast along the
Rio Grande. We may stop a couple of degrees short of records at
Austin and San Antonio Sunday and Monday, however Del Rio`s records
may be in jeopardy (see records below). Elevated fire weather
conditions will continue through this time frame across western areas
closer to the Rio Grande, give the lower RH values, hot/dry
conditions, and gusty southerly winds.

A cold front is forecast to move into the region Tuesday night.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along the cold front
and dry line Tuesday evening across portions of the Hill Country and
Rio Grande, potentially working into and east of the I-35 corridor
overnight and Wednesday, although confidence is low. Can`t rule out
a few stronger storms Tuesday evening across western and northern
areas of the CWA given forecast soundings.

Cooler behind the front Wednesday and Thursday, with forecast high
temperatures closer to averages for this time of year. Another cold
front and low chance for storms is possible late in the forecast
period Friday.

Record High Temperatures:

May 3 May 4 May 5

Austin Bergstrom 94 (2017) 98 (1984) 101 (1984)
Austin Camp Mabry 95 (2017) 100 (1984) 100 (1984)
San Antonio 98 (1984) 99 (1984) 99 (1984)
Del Rio 101 (1964) 102 (1984) 104 (1906)

[South Texas Storms]

This looks more encouraging for south and southeast Texas fwiw.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/month_drought.png

Yeah it definitely looks promising that we could see a wet May. Let's hope and pray we can get some good drought denting rain events before the boring summer weather pattern kicks in.