In my view, this is one of the most salient points recently made within our forum. At one level, this also expresses my own disdain for all the attention on ACE. The primary relevence of MDR conditions may well play some roll on over-all storm counts for a season. All in all however, what is
least important when it comes to potential landfalls and destruction in the U.S., Central America, or the Antilles are the over-all number of named storms that year and certainly not any apperant increase in the number of subtropical or hybrid frontal low's that briefly develop over the North or Central Atlantic. In fact, it would be an interesting study to see what inverse correlation might exist for those tropical cyclones that form in the East MDR and their eventual impact on let's say..... Houston? Or, New Orleans, Cancun, or Miami? Of course, the reverse may hold true for other more eastern locations such as the Windward Islands, Puerto Rico, or Hispanola. Fact is, that in the approx. 4,000 miles between the W. Coast of Africa and the GOM. Rarely will a developed tropical cyclone traverse that span without encountering any number of differing conditions that might cause it to degenerate or simply find a weakness and turn poleward. If I were to live in Houston, it's only reasonable to view particular storm tracks or points of storm origin that might pose the greatest threat to my area. For the most part, history bears this out quite well. Same applies to South Florida. There's a general reason why October generally presents a high prevelance of threat to the area simply as a result of Climo and those historical tracks by tropical cyclones that might form in the W. Caribbean at such a time. If you think about it much higher SST anomolies over the Eastern MDR, might well contribute to a decreased percentage of cyclogenesis that result in U.S. landfalls. How many times have we seen a quick spin-up soon after a strong wave exits the W. African coastline, that soon feels the poleward tug of some strong mid-level trough in the far E. Atlantic? In other cases, MDR development has often resulted in recurving tracks over the mid-Atlantic. Yet other scenario's involve strong tropical waves or a repressed Atlantic ITCZ that may well retard early cyclogenesis and result in latter development much further west. I largely view warmer/colder then normal SST's as a regional condition that might well play an important factor that could inhibit or exacerbate a hurricane's strengthening. That certainly changes the potential impact for any landfall (along with wind shear and other factors). This is why I tend to overlook a lot of the broader chatter regarding El Nino or SST's. What I care most about are where might those "Goldilocks zones" in proximity to the potential threat of possible landfall. If a tropical cyclone can't form near me (or any area in general), then there's less likelyhood of a threat. If a a tropcal cyclone is unlikely to track near me, then there's an even diminished risk of threat. Such risk can change with time, but to me the greatest factor that play's into any local theat of landfall are those conditions far closer to home.
2017?? What's JB talking about?
