ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Well latest EPS 46 day shows more support for cool-neutral rather than La Nina. Entering mid June, it shows more sinking motion over the MC, no sinking motion just east of the dateline and into the CPAC, and rising motion from 120W to the Caribbean.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:Well latest EPS 46 day shows more support for cool-neutral rather than La Nina. Entering mid June, it shows more sinking motion over the MC, no sinking motion just east of the dateline and into the CPAC, and rising motion from 120W to the Caribbean.
This kind of setup is actually more akin to what one would expect in warm neutral ENSO or even weak Niño conditions, not cool neutral ENSO, much less weak Niña. The strong forcing over the EPAC is consistent with a warm pool in the region, with sinking air—and implied enhanced VWS (stronger-than-average TUTT)—predominating over the MDR and eastern Caribbean at the very least. So this kind of setup would tend to suppress overall TC activity in most of the Atlantic basin, perhaps excluding the subtropics, Gulf, and northwestern Caribbean. It would also tend to promote cooler SSTA over the MDR, given relatively higher MSLP and enhanced low-level easterlies. The strong African monsoon, of course, would tend to counteract these negatives, so perhaps one could see a year similar to 2018, but certainly nothing close to a hyperactive season.
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
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- NotSparta
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Re: ENSO Updates
Shell Mound wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Well latest EPS 46 day shows more support for cool-neutral rather than La Nina. Entering mid June, it shows more sinking motion over the MC, no sinking motion just east of the dateline and into the CPAC, and rising motion from 120W to the Caribbean.
This kind of setup is actually more akin to what one would expect in warm neutral ENSO or even weak Niño conditions, not cool neutral ENSO, much less weak Niña. The strong forcing over the EPAC is consistent with a warm pool in the region, with sinking air—and implied enhanced VWS (stronger-than-average TUTT)—predominating over the MDR and eastern Caribbean at the very least. So this kind of setup would tend to suppress overall TC activity in most of the Atlantic basin, perhaps excluding the subtropics, Gulf, and northwestern Caribbean. It would also tend to promote cooler SSTA over the MDR, given relatively higher MSLP and enhanced low-level easterlies. The strong African monsoon, of course, would tend to counteract these negatives, so perhaps one could see a year similar to 2018, but certainly nothing close to a hyperactive season.
I mean, yeah, it's still warm neutral. Cooler water is still below the surface
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
ECMWF till June 15.
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- SFLcane
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Re: ENSO Updates
Hi Luis, Looks like it has some MDR cooling to. Might not matter though with very favorable conditions plus a warm western basin.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: ENSO Updates
Shell Mound wrote:This kind of setup is actually more akin to what one would expect in warm neutral ENSO or even weak Niño conditions, not cool neutral ENSO, much less weak Niña. The strong forcing over the EPAC is consistent with a warm pool in the region, with sinking air—and implied enhanced VWS (stronger-than-average TUTT)—predominating over the MDR and eastern Caribbean at the very least. So this kind of setup would tend to suppress overall TC activity in most of the Atlantic basin, perhaps excluding the subtropics, Gulf, and northwestern Caribbean. It would also tend to promote cooler SSTA over the MDR, given relatively higher MSLP and enhanced low-level easterlies. The strong African monsoon, of course, would tend to counteract these negatives, so perhaps one could see a year similar to 2018, but certainly nothing close to a hyperactive season.
A week or so ago you were saying La Niña, now you're leaning towards warm-neutral or El Niño? What's your reasoning behind this quick sudden 180º change?
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- JetFuel_SE
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Re: ENSO Updates
Shell Mound wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Well latest EPS 46 day shows more support for cool-neutral rather than La Nina. Entering mid June, it shows more sinking motion over the MC, no sinking motion just east of the dateline and into the CPAC, and rising motion from 120W to the Caribbean.
This kind of setup is actually more akin to what one would expect in warm neutral ENSO or even weak Niño conditions, not cool neutral ENSO, much less weak Niña. The strong forcing over the EPAC is consistent with a warm pool in the region, with sinking air—and implied enhanced VWS (stronger-than-average TUTT)—predominating over the MDR and eastern Caribbean at the very least. So this kind of setup would tend to suppress overall TC activity in most of the Atlantic basin, perhaps excluding the subtropics, Gulf, and northwestern Caribbean. It would also tend to promote cooler SSTA over the MDR, given relatively higher MSLP and enhanced low-level easterlies. The strong African monsoon, of course, would tend to counteract these negatives, so perhaps one could see a year similar to 2018, but certainly nothing close to a hyperactive season.
The EPS (which is based on the ECMWF) is tends to have a warm bias when it comes to ENSO, so it showing an El Niño-like atmosphere wouldn't be too surprising either.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
The new 46 day EPS is a bit more realistic with more sinking near the dateline. But the bulk and strongest +VP anomalies continue to be situated over the MC. The interesting feature is that the rising air branch extends from 120W in the EPAC to past the ATL MDR. We know the waters in the EPAC will very likely be cooler than at least the past two years, which would limit the amount of shear over the Caribbean by default. So from an ENSO point of view, odds continue to point towards an active season ATL hurricane seasons. The WATL isn't setting up to be prohibitive as it has been in recent years.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
Niño 3.4 is cooling right now to below +0.3C and that may be related to what GFS had that I posted of the big blue comming.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Nino 3.4 is down to +0.4C for today's update. Looks like the predicted cooling is finally taking place
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to +0.4C
BOM down to +0.32°C as well. The buoys show a developing tongue of cool anomalies in the Niño 3 region, and the warm subsurface anomalies have all but dissipated. The 30-day SOI average has increased to +1.6. Without any significant WWBs likely in the near future, the cooling seems likely to continue, and it may be a long time before +0.5°C is ever reached again.
However, FMA came in at +0.5°C, the fifth straight trimonthly value to reach the El Niño threshold. 2019-20 may be retroactively classified as a weak El Niño event.
However, FMA came in at +0.5°C, the fifth straight trimonthly value to reach the El Niño threshold. 2019-20 may be retroactively classified as a weak El Niño event.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to +0.4C
2020 now qualifies as an El Nino year on the ONI chart.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to +0.4C
CyclonicFury wrote:BOM down to +0.32°C as well. The buoys show a developing tongue of cool anomalies in the Niño 3 region, and the warm subsurface anomalies have all but dissipated. The 30-day SOI average has increased to +1.6. Without any significant WWBs likely in the near future, the cooling seems likely to continue, and it may be a long time before +0.5°C is ever reached again.
However, FMA came in at +0.5°C, the fifth straight trimonthly value to reach the El Niño threshold. 2019-20 may be retroactively classified as a weak El Niño event.
What is your best estimate as to the earliest we may see trimonthly ONI values (NINO 3.4) in Niña territory in 2020? Based on current trends, while there likely won’t be any significant WWBs from now on, there also doesn’t appear to be any sustained period of well-above-average trades. I still don’t see any evidence that the CFSv2 and other bullish models will verify in regard to La Niña by ASO. Cool neutral ENSO seems to be the best bet at this point. This does make a difference in terms of steering, however, since cool neutral ENSO will likely feature less of a pronounced -PDO signature than weak La Niña or stronger. This would allow for more periods of +PNA-driven ridging along the West Coast, along with troughs along the Eastern Seaboard. Combined with an active MDR, this could imply less of a risk of landfalls on the CONUS. So ENSO conditions by ASO do matter.
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- SFLcane
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to +0.4C
Kingarabian wrote:2020 now qualifies as an El Nino year on the ONI chart.
https://i.imgur.com/bPOff9p.png
Yeah kinda funny that it's officially an El Nino right as it dissipates.
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: ENSO Updates
Here is the new Euro seasonal for May. Once again it trended cooler with ENSO. Quite intriguing considering it supposedly has a warm-ENSO bias.
When was the last time it showed a bona fide La Niña like this around this time of the year? 2011, maybe?
When was the last time it showed a bona fide La Niña like this around this time of the year? 2011, maybe?
Last edited by DorkyMcDorkface on Tue May 05, 2020 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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ENSO Updates
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Here is the new Euro seasonal for May. Once again it trended cooler with ENSO. Quite intriguing considering it supposedly has a warm-ENSO bias.
When was the last time it showed a bona fide La Niña like this around this time of the year? 2011, maybe?
Can you repost the image? It wont open for some reason
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: ENSO Updates
WeatherEmperor wrote:DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Here is the new Euro seasonal for May. Once again it trended cooler with ENSO. Quite intriguing considering it supposedly has a warm-ENSO bias.
When was the last time it showed a bona fide La Niña like this around this time of the year? 2011, maybe?
Can you repost the image? It wont open for some reason
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Should be fixed now.
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