2020 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

To be honest I think this could be a sign that conditions won’t be as horrific as some thought in the next month or so at least until we exit an El Nino state but at the same time I wouldn’t read too much into this because this basin is known for high month to month variability.

Yeah I'm thinking the season follows ENSO to a T. I'm leaning towards a 2017 scenario where the EPAC was active until ENSO went cool and the Atlantic took over.

[hurricanes1234]

Something which just occurred to me ... the EPAC started before the WPAC in 2020!

While the WPAC has largely fallen into oblivion since the year began, the EPAC wants to play early bird and ended up beating the WPAC, thereby earning the title of 2020's first North Pacific tropical cyclone.

The irony and humour of it all.

[Kingarabian]

Well GFS showing Amanda in the super long range. EPS members also showing scattered low pressure areas in the GOM, WCaribbean and in the eastern EPAC at the same time frame.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS continues with the system forming by the 15th. Of course is very long range but the consistent showing by this model and a few Ensembles is something to watch down the road.

[Yellow Evan]

While the GFS sniffed out 1E in advance, this still is basically fantasy play for now. Pay attention once the time frame goes under the 8 day range and it's somehow still there.

[Kingarabian]

While the GFS sniffed out 1E in advance, this still is basically fantasy play for now. Pay attention once the time frame goes under the 8 day range and it's somehow still there.

With the 12z run it's getting closer to the 300 hour mark. But yeah. Let's see if the GFS is on to something or up to its old habits.

[Kingarabian]

Per the EPS, there is atmospheric support with rising motion situating over the EPAC and the WATL over the next 15 days.


Around 15 EPS members showing weak to modest development, But this is in +300 hours.


-PC Weathermodels.com

[cycloneye]

12z GFS changes track and goes to Oaxaca, Mexico as a strong one but is long range. When it gets down to less than 10 days then things get interesting unless is fantasy.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS changes track and goes to Oaxaca, Mexico as a strong one but is long range. When it gets down to less than 10 days then things get interesting unless is fantasy.

https://i.imgur.com/i0Aj6I4.gif

I mean it did nail TD 1E, and it is long range around the official start of the season so let’s see if it holds.

[Kingarabian]

Timeframe continues to come in. Would be something if the GFS goes 2 for 2 here.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Timeframe continues to come in. Would be something if the GFS goes 2 for 2 here.

18z GFS begins on May 15.

[Astromanía]

12z GFS changes track and goes to Oaxaca, Mexico as a strong one but is long range. When it gets down to less than 10 days then things get interesting unless is fantasy.

https://i.imgur.com/i0Aj6I4.gif

That would be a big disaster, I hope it never happens

[Astromanía]

:uarrow: Timeframe continues to come in. Would be something if the GFS goes 2 for 2 here.

18z GFS begins on May 15.

https://i.imgur.com/0z0Zcp3.gif

Ugh we will see soon the first systems that causes trouble to México, no please, not now with this currently pandemic..., Well it's mother nature

[cycloneye]

Well, the time to start developing is pushed back on 06z as it begins on May 17.

[cycloneye]

Well, the time to start developing is pushed back on 06z as it begins on May 17.

The back and forth continues as 12z goes again back in time to May 15.

[Kingarabian]

The 12z GFS has development starting around hr 240 with a weak low developing then. There is increased support from the 12z EPS run. I count more than 20 members showing developing by days 13-15 although it maybe a combination for two systems.

[Astromanía]

Well, the time to start developing is pushed back on 06z as it begins on May 17.

The back and forth continues as 12z goes again back in time to May 15.

https://i.imgur.com/N75Zvmm.png

https://i.imgur.com/vktJiob.gif

I don't like this trend

[CyclonicFury]

Well, the time to start developing is pushed back on 06z as it begins on May 17.

The back and forth continues as 12z goes again back in time to May 15.

https://i.imgur.com/N75Zvmm.png

https://i.imgur.com/vktJiob.gif

I don't like this trend

I wouldn't worry about it too much yet, GFS does this every year.

[cycloneye]

00zs GFS begins the development on May 14.

[Astromanía]

00zs GFS begins the development on May 14.

https://i.imgur.com/m50ujQX.png

https://i.imgur.com/t9rOrcD.gif

Better stay offshore