Texas Spring 2020

[Cpv17]

This looks more encouraging for south and southeast Texas fwiw.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/month_drought.png

Yeah it definitely looks promising that we could see a wet May. Let's hope and pray we can get some good drought denting rain events before the boring summer weather pattern kicks in.

We could see an increased tropical threat this summer though.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Our local guy posted this up earlier.

online photo hosting

[rwfromkansas]

Ugh on that SST.

[bubba hotep]

00z Hi-res models trying to get storms into DFW tomorrow night?

[gpsnowman]

00z Hi-res models trying to get storms into DFW tomorrow night?

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest-conus/dallas/refc/1588550400/1588647600-QSxhW2cZGUI.png

This looks nice. It has been too hot for me the last couple days. I haven't watched much weather in a few days but I was out of town for two of them. I did catch a glancing glance of a cool down next weekend though. Unfortunately I am off work this week so bring on any weather other than heat.

[Brent]

00z Hi-res models trying to get storms into DFW tomorrow night?

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest-conus/dallas/refc/1588550400/1588647600-QSxhW2cZGUI.png

Was just going to post that good way to end the heat lol

Yeah next weekend is looking way below normal with highs in the low to mid 70s. Polar opposite of this week

SPC day 1 almost has the slight into the metro(it's north of 380) but also mentions this

However, damaging-wind threat should increase as
early discrete activity becomes more linear in nature with possible
bow-type structures evolving, as this activity builds south and
propagates southeast toward north-central TX during the late
evening.

[bubba hotep]

12z guidance is a mixed bag with HRRRs losing interest but the 3K NAM and HREF both look decent.

[bubba hotep]

HRRRs are still not doing much of anything, which is a bit concerning given that they tend to overconvect. However, 18z 3k NAM is all in. There isn't much forcing moving through our area but there is plenty of fuel. If storms in Oklahoma can organize into a MCS then they might plow right through N. TX but if they stay clustered then the lack of cold pool behind them might allow fizzle outing before moving into N. TX. Watch this end up being more impressive than the much advertised MCS from the last event lol

[weatherdude1108]

I stumbled upon this. 10 years of weather radar. I haven't watched it all, but pretty cool!

[youtube]https://youtu.be/VCdb9_VhIvU[/youtube]

[Brent]

That supercell around Sulphur OK is probably the story

But does it make it to the metro

[EnnisTx]

That supercell around Sulphur OK is probably the story

But does it make it to the metro

It might just make it. Looks like it's moving more South than Southeast.

[EnnisTx]

I don't know, but capping may limit that.

[Cpv17]

I don't know, but capping may limit that.

I personally don’t think it’ll make it that far south. Optimal time for storms is dying down for the night.

[bubba hotep]

Watch for N. TX

[Brent]

Big hail reported on that storm. It's moving really slow though unlike last week

[rwfromkansas]

I would feel better if it was moving more than a snail pace.

[HockeyTx82]

Just got put under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning here in Ponder. Hope it dies down before it gets here. Is that a gust front I see on the radar? Is the storm starting to fall apart?

[cheezyWXguy]

Getting renewed development just behind the initial gust front and the main cell near Denton is holding strong for the moment. Could be trouble for north dfw

[Brent]

needs to speed it up or I still halfway expect it to die

[HockeyTx82]

Just like the last storm it went just east of me and got Denton. I'm guessing I'll miss out on the rain again. Hope no one gets to bad of damage. It looks like it picked up some size to the south and west.