Texas Spring 2020

[Brent]

Looks to miss me to the SW also looks to be weakening

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks to miss me to the SW also looks to be weakening

Yep definitely on a weakening trend over the last 20 minutes. Hopefully I can get a little rain here in dallas

[WacoWx]

More active morning than I anticipated. .34 so far, bu MUCH more in areas south of downtown and westward.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Even a drop of rain would be nice at this point. Every single storm to the East or Southeast.

[Cpv17]

We could be entering an active period beginning in about 10 days or so. I don’t believe it atm cuz I’ve been burned too many times but my fingers are crossed!

[bubba hotep]

Tomorrow night looking like a decent rain event for portions of N & NE Texas. Also, SPC highlighting some storm potential.

[bubba hotep]

We could be entering an active period beginning in about 10 days or so. I don’t believe it atm cuz I’ve been burned too many times but my fingers are crossed!

It looks like the TPV will be parked over the NE US for a few days bringing unseasonably cold air to them. That also keeps the Southern Plains mostly shut down with NW flow. It does look like the TPV will retreat back north and we'll potentially get a pattern flip out West returning us to a more active pattern. However, the current pattern can be stubborn and it might linger longer than the models are showing.

[gpsnowman]

We could be entering an active period beginning in about 10 days or so. I don’t believe it atm cuz I’ve been burned too many times but my fingers are crossed!

It looks like the TPV will be parked over the NE US for a few days bringing unseasonably cold air to them. That also keeps the Southern Plains mostly shut down with NW flow. It does look like the TPV will retreat back north and we'll potentially get a pattern flip out West returning us to a more active pattern. However, the current pattern can be stubborn and it might linger longer than the models are showing.

If it's not going rain at least keep it cooler and less humid. The last two days have been fantastic with more below normal air this weekend. The shot at storms will be nice before the cooler drier Mothers Day.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS Days 0 - 7



Days 8 - 15



That would be a pattern flip. Also, the position of the mean trough looks to pull the axis of heavier rainfall back west vs. the period we had in April. This would be good news for S. Texas.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro EPS Days 0 - 7

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/z500_anom_7day/1588766400/1589371200-N4t2C21kqdg.png

Days 8 - 15

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/z500_anom_7day/1588766400/1590062400-AWutSOpB53s.png

That would be a pattern flip. Also, the position of the mean trough looks to pull the axis of heavier rainfall back west vs. the period we had in April. This would be good news for S. Texas.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/qpf_anom_7day/1588766400/1590062400-bTHmpF2AwHk.png

Severe weather will come with that too.

[rwfromkansas]

Not sure why Steve McCauley is hyping good rains tonight.

Checking the Tech WRF, the storms will be weakening and also basically only clip far northeast TX. The latest run is moving the storms significantly away from DFW.

Checking the NAM, basically, there will be very, very skinny lines of weak thunderstorms through DFW.

HRRR shows the storms missing east of DFW like the WRF.

What am I missing?

[cheezyWXguy]

Not sure why Steve McCauley is hyping good rains tonight.

Checking the Tech WRF, the storms will be weakening and also basically only clip far northeast TX. The latest run is moving the storms significantly away from DFW.

Checking the NAM, basically, there will be very, very skinny lines of weak thunderstorms through DFW.

HRRR shows the storms missing east of DFW like the WRF.

What am I missing?

I’m not seeing it either. At best I could see rain being widespread due to the width of line if the nam is right, but light in intensity and short in duration. Maybe he’s thinking the line will maintain better than modeled?

[HockeyTx82]

That's a big storm on the HRRR 16z and 17z hour 03.

When do we put stock into something like that?

[cheezyWXguy]

That's a big storm on the HRRR 16z and 17z hour 03.

When do we put stock into something like that?

Ha, I’ll believe it when I see it. Looks like it’s dropped the storm since then.

[Cpv17]

That's a big storm on the HRRR 16z and 17z hour 03.

When do we put stock into something like that?

Ha, I’ll believe it when I see it. Looks like it’s dropped the storm since then.

Gotta wait another week to 10 days before we see some decent action widespread for the southern plains.

[bubba hotep]

1st rd of potential storms are firing off the dryline bulge just west of Childress. 18z HRRRv4 and 12z HREF have those make a run at DFW.

[bubba hotep]

Wind is kicking! Surprised there isn't an advisory.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That's a big storm on the HRRR 16z and 17z hour 03.

When do we put stock into something like that?

Ha, I’ll believe it when I see it. Looks like it’s dropped the storm since then.

Headed through WF now

[bubba hotep]

Nice split on that cell with the hard right turn. Probably some big hail!

[cheezyWXguy]

That's a big storm on the HRRR 16z and 17z hour 03.

When do we put stock into something like that?

Ha, I’ll believe it when I see it. Looks like it’s dropped the storm since then.

Headed through WF now

Well then I believe it, haha. But nah, I meant that I’m more skeptical of it holding together long enough to reach dfw. Probably a better chance of the line making it through the area, but still probably in quite a weakened state