2020 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

00zs GFS begins the development on May 14.

https://i.imgur.com/m50ujQX.png

https://i.imgur.com/t9rOrcD.gif

Better stay offshore

Way too early to start getting concerned about track given this is still 10+ days out. I've seen plenty of situations like this where the GFS brings a storm near Mexico in the medium to long range only for the same storm to stay at sea instead.

[Monsoonjr99]

12z GFS buries it into Central America, but this is a long way out and it's still indicating a gyre. Both basins will have to be watched as the MJO pulse nears.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1257451259159883777

[Kingarabian]

GFS also has a weak secondary system near 110W.

[cycloneye]

GFS keep insisting on development starting on the 15th.

[Yellow Evan]

Development at 9N and near 90W? I have my reservations but we're almost to the point we can take this somewhat seriously.

[Kingarabian]

GFS now has it in the minus-240 hours range. This doesn't seem to be a ghost since the Euro also has it, although it has it significantly weaker.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian now on May 14.

[aspen]

Looking pretty toasty down there at ~9N/~90W. Maybe we could see a major if the GFS is correct and if it doesn't run into Mexico as a TS or an undeveloped disturbance.

[cycloneye]

The odds are increasing for development to take place as the timeframe continues to get shorter. Again May 14 on 00z GFS.

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian now on May 14.

https://i.imgur.com/Q1LJSKt.png

GFS and Euro pretty much have the same MJO forecast. So it will come down to local conditions. The Euro does see it. It's quite large and disorganized on the Euro compared to the GFS.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has a system in open waters and continues to develop the closer to Mexican coast one.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF has it but weaker.

[Kingarabian]

That's the strongest the Euro has had it yet lol

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: That's the strongest the Euro has had it yet lol

Weaker than GFS is what I meant.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: That's the strongest the Euro has had it yet lol

Weaker than GFS is what I meant.

Yeah I know I'm just poking fun @ the Euro.

[cycloneye]

Strongest run yet from ECMWF. This development is going to happen. When GFS began showing it I thought it was fantasy but run after run the model has been consistant with the days shrinking and with ECMWF on the parade,is a given now.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah odds are looking pretty good at this rate. The Euro has late development, and shows a TD by day 9-10. GFS is much quicker with development and begins development in 6 days. So maybe a mention by the NHC over the weekend?

[cycloneye]

Yeah odds are looking pretty good at this rate. The Euro has late development, and shows a TD by day 9-10. GFS is much quicker with development and begins development in 6 days. So maybe a mention by the NHC over the weekend?

For sure they will wait to see more model runs and to have an area of disturbed weather present before any mention.

[Astromanía]

GFS hates México