2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[USTropics]

The area that is showing signs of potentially being favorable later in the season is the Caribbean. 2010-2019 was anomalously void of the typical Caribbean "cruiser". In fact, it doesn't appear any major hurricanes had a traditional track through the western Caribbean. This is a drastic difference from the previous 10 years (2000-2009).

2010-2019


2000-2009

[TheStormExpert]

The area that is showing signs of potentially being favorable later in the season is the Caribbean. 2010-2019 was anomalously void of the typical Caribbean "cruiser". In fact, it doesn't appear any major hurricanes had a traditional track through the western Caribbean. This is a drastic difference from the previous 10 years (2000-2009).

2010-2019
https://i.imgur.com/c2K9JAs.png

2000-2009
https://i.imgur.com/WwrrSLB.png

The Gulf of Mexico too saw a decent drop in storms and hurricanes outside of the two notable ones such as Harvey in 2017 and Michael in 2018. This right here is why the U.S. during the period of 2010-2016 went untouched from any major hurricane strikes, though Matthew in 2016 came close and Sandy in 2012 was significant though post-tropical.

All in all if we get a west based season similar to or a lot like 2005 or 2008 things could get ugly in terms of U.S. impact especially along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

[toad strangler]

The area that is showing signs of potentially being favorable later in the season is the Caribbean. 2010-2019 was anomalously void of the typical Caribbean "cruiser". In fact, it doesn't appear any major hurricanes had a traditional track through the western Caribbean. This is a drastic difference from the previous 10 years (2000-2009).

2010-2019
https://i.imgur.com/c2K9JAs.png

2000-2009
https://i.imgur.com/WwrrSLB.png

The Gulf of Mexico too saw a decent drop in storms and hurricanes outside of the two notable ones such as Harvey in 2017 and Michael in 2018. This right here is why the U.S. during the period of 2010-2016 went untouched from any major hurricane strikes, though Matthew in 2016 came close and Sandy in 2012 was significant though post-tropical.

All in all if we get a west based season similar to or a lot like 2005 or 2008 things could get ugly in terms of U.S. impact especially along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

The Gulf and Caribbean go hand in hand for the most part.

[USTropics]

Conversely, 2010-2019 had a higher concentration of hurricanes off the east coast compared to 2000-2009.

2000-2009


2010-2019

[TheStormExpert]

So basically at the moment we have two camps.

Those that believe this season will be average to above average, and those that think this season will be average to below average.

Talk about no consensus on here and the season starts in less than 30 days!

[CyclonicFury]

So basically at the moment we have two camps.

Those that believe this season will be average to above average, and those that think this season will be average to below average.

Talk about no consensus on here and the season starts in less than 30 days!

The vast majority of the predictions on here are calling for above average to well above average activity. Not one expert group is calling for average or below average activity at the moment.

[toad strangler]

So basically at the moment we have two camps.

Those that believe this season will be average to above average, and those that think this season will be average to below average.

Talk about no consensus on here and the season starts in less than 30 days!

The vast majority of the predictions on here are calling for above average to well above average activity. Not one expert group is calling for average or below average activity at the moment.

I don’t think any group let alone one individual has been talking below average. There have been a couple mentions of a possible AMO switch is all I remember seeing. Not sure what “camps” he’s referring to. I think one of those camps house a bunch of empty tents

[tolakram]

So basically at the moment we have two camps.

Those that believe this season will be average to above average, and those that think this season will be average to below average.

Talk about no consensus on here and the season starts in less than 30 days!

Who has been talking about below average?

[aspen]

Most of the factors at play for the 2020 season seem to be favorable for above-average activity, but how do the MDR, Caribbean, and Gulf conditions compare to 2017? That season’s ACE was dominated by several long-tracking Cape Verde major hurricanes, so if 2020 could have a similarly favorable MDR, perhaps the same thing could happen this year (although I highly doubt we’ll get something as ridiculous as Irma’s 60+ ACE).

[NotSparta]

Most of the factors at play for the 2020 season seem to be favorable for above-average activity, but how do the MDR, Caribbean, and Gulf conditions compare to 2017? That season’s ACE was dominated by several long-tracking Cape Verde major hurricanes, so if 2020 could have a similarly favorable MDR, perhaps the same thing could happen this year (although I highly doubt we’ll get something as ridiculous as Irma’s 60+ ACE).

The MDR is a good bit cooler than in 2017 at this point, as with the Caribbean. Bit early to tell with other conditions but shear looks relatively favorable. Obviously though things are going to look less active than 2017 because that season was hyperactive, and comparing to a hyperactive season will make almost any season seem like it will be inactive

[Ubuntwo]

Most of the factors at play for the 2020 season seem to be favorable for above-average activity, but how do the MDR, Caribbean, and Gulf conditions compare to 2017? That season’s ACE was dominated by several long-tracking Cape Verde major hurricanes, so if 2020 could have a similarly favorable MDR, perhaps the same thing could happen this year (although I highly doubt we’ll get something as ridiculous as Irma’s 60+ ACE).

The MDR is a good bit cooler than in 2017 at this point, as with the Caribbean. Bit early to tell with other conditions but shear looks relatively favorable. Obviously though things are going to look less active than 2017 because that season was hyperactive, and comparing to a hyperactive season will make almost any season seem like it will be inactive

Here's the anomaly comparison for now vs. now in 2017 (just a day off)


(Don't know why the resolution is different since it's the same produce, but you can see the differences)

2017 had warmer MDR anomalies, but 2020 has a far warmer GOM

[cycloneye]

The Eastern Atlantic is warming and the rest of MDR although cool,it will begin to warm shortly.

[JetFuel_SE]

Most of the factors at play for the 2020 season seem to be favorable for above-average activity, but how do the MDR, Caribbean, and Gulf conditions compare to 2017? That season’s ACE was dominated by several long-tracking Cape Verde major hurricanes, so if 2020 could have a similarly favorable MDR, perhaps the same thing could happen this year (although I highly doubt we’ll get something as ridiculous as Irma’s 60+ ACE).

The MDR is a good bit cooler than in 2017 at this point, as with the Caribbean. Bit early to tell with other conditions but shear looks relatively favorable. Obviously though things are going to look less active than 2017 because that season was hyperactive, and comparing to a hyperactive season will make almost any season seem like it will be inactive

Here's the anomaly comparison for now vs. now in 2017 (just a day off)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png
https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/1494420088464-ARRDMWXGME1Q3HPII4IL/ke17ZwdGBToddI8pDm48kG4VqDreF-qTqyP-RyQBlzwUqsxRUqqbr1mOJYKfIPR7LoDQ9mXPOjoJoqy81S2I8N_N4V1vUb5AoIIIbLZhVYxCRW4BPu10St3TBAUQYVKcz9FKOkYZZtCaZTQFz_pq4njr3fQnFjhxZuT9qSS4BtKI42iWDYN3Yj3ILGKtJgbC/SST_anom_08_may_2017.png?format=1000w
(Don't know why the resolution is different since it's the same produce, but you can see the differences)

2017 had warmer MDR anomalies, but 2020 has a far warmer GOM

I personally wouldn't use CDAS anomalies, doesn't do well with SAL outbreaks, which is something we've been dealing with recently.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1258415039532249089

[cycloneye]

Are there still two camps?

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1258462887116488704




 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1258467054480429056

[USTropics]

Comparing activity by filtering ONI values for JAS, there are 22 years where values were -0.4 or less (subset1 - La Nina) and 22 years that were +0.4 or higher (subset2 - El Nino). This is filtered again by hurricanes and the months of JAS. Here are some breakdowns of activity (the first image is always La Nina seasons, second image is El Nino seasons):

Gulf of Mexico



Caribbean



East Coast



MDR



Subset1 | JAS ONI values | La Nina (-0.4 or less) | n=22 years

Code: Select all

2010
1973
1975
1988
1998
1999
1954
1970
1971
2007
1955
1964
2011
1956
2016
1985
1995
2000
1950
1974
1978
2013

Subset2 | JAS ONI values | El Nino (+0.4 or higher) | n=22 years

Code: Select all

1997
2015
1987
1965
1972
1957
1963
1982
1951
2002
1953
1991
2004
1968
1969
2009
1958
1976
1977
1986
1990
1994

[TheStormExpert]

So basically at the moment we have two camps.

Those that believe this season will be average to above average, and those that think this season will be average to below average.

Talk about no consensus on here and the season starts in less than 30 days!

Who has been talking about below average?

Maybe I should've worded it better, but I was referring to those who are being skeptical or cautious on how active this season may be.

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1258415039532249089

The Atlantic is toasty, but mostly in the mid-latitudes between 20-40ºN. Will this change come peak season is the wild card.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Are there still two camps?

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1258462887116488704

https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1258467054480429056

This most recent NMME run is by far the most favorable looking of each of the past 5 May runs in terms of Atlantic SSTs and precip:

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1258415039532249089

The Atlantic is toasty, but mostly in the mid-latitudes between 20-40ºN. Will this change come peak season is the wild card.

No man, that is not the wild card. It is one ingredient. Also, anomalies are still a touch plus right now even in the MDR. No idea what you are talking about here.