2020 EPAC Season

[Astromanía]

GFS keeps this potential system in the ocean for a while fluctuating on intensity from tropical storm to cat 3, until finally making landfall on Chiapas as a hurricane, so if this happens then a lot of ACE is expected, unffortunately it could affect the worst place in México for a Cyclone, yes I mean tha state of Chiapas.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS keeps this potential system in the ocean for a while fluctuating on intensity from tropical storm to cat 3, until finally making landfall on Chiapas as a hurricane, so if this happens then a lot of ACE is expected, unffortunately it could affect the worst place in México for a Cyclone, yes I mean tha state of Chiapas.

While at this point I trust the GFSat least somewhat on whether something is going to develop, I don't trust it for track and intensity given this steering setup. Furthermore, it is worth noting Chiapas hurricane landfalls are rather rare (Barbara 13 is only one on record IIRC).

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS through six days doesn't have it FWIW. This may take a while to get going given its origins from the monsoonal trough.

[Yellow Evan]

On another note, April SST's lowest since 2014. Of course, that didn't stop a TD forming but not a positive sign for activity the rest of the season especially with El Nino rapidly fading.

[cycloneye]

0z GFS through six days doesn't have it FWIW. This may take a while to get going given its origins from the monsoonal trough.

On day 9 it intensifies fast with the pressure down to 988 mbs and on day 10 down to 972 mbs.

[Astromanía]

I think for this time of the year it's very hard to know the track of this future system, I will be positive and Say this Will stay offshore, tho I Will keep watching the models the next days carefully

[Astromanía]

Even though waters are not that warm compared with other years, this thing will stay in the warmest área in this basin for many days, so it's possible that this can reach mejor status if there won't be much wind shear, plus EPAC it's know to produce monsters with not so warm waters

[Yellow Evan]

Also of note is how far SW the 0z GFS takes it. Historically hard to hit Oaxaca or Chiapas on that trajectory.

[Kingarabian]

GFS keeps this potential system in the ocean for a while fluctuating on intensity from tropical storm to cat 3, until finally making landfall on Chiapas as a hurricane, so if this happens then a lot of ACE is expected, unffortunately it could affect the worst place in México for a Cyclone, yes I mean tha state of Chiapas.

Steering seems to be complicated and so this could push out some nice early season ACE if its sits around. Almost similar to 2010 where we got an early season bump in ACE due to strong systems early on.

[cycloneye]

06z barely develops.

[Kingarabian]

It's very weak on the 00z run and the 06z it's gone.

[cycloneye]

It's very weak on the 00z run and the 06z it's gone.

ECMWF has it but very weak.

[Astromanía]

Yeah I don't know what happened

[CyclonicFury]

Yeah I don't know what happened

The season hasn't even officially started yet, and the GFS seems to have a bias to strong early-season storms in the far eastern EPAC and western Caribbean. The ECMWF is much more reliable this time of year with genesis in that region.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah I don't know what happened

It can still come back. Globals were very erratic with Adrian 17 constantly windshield wipering from Cat 2 to no development for two weeks prior to it developing.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the season will begin quiet.

[cycloneye]

It begins. Let's see how the season unfolds from start to finish.

[aspen]

It begins. Let's see how the season unfolds from start to finish.

https://i.imgur.com/cY4uWqb.jpg

I’m expecting a repeat of 2017 — more active than normal July, but overall rather quiet without anything truly memorable.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/nsg794/status/1261296385061683200




 https://twitter.com/nsg794/status/1261296386085138436




 https://twitter.com/nsg794/status/1261296388375265283




 https://twitter.com/nsg794/status/1261296395908198400




 https://twitter.com/nsg794/status/1261296396927471628

[Chris90]

I'm expecting a season that's close to average still. I'm starting to think that we won't see our first named storm until after June 1st though. The models were hinting at something a few days ago but that seems to have been a phantom they've dropped. I'm wondering if we're going to have to wait for a tropical wave to come from the Atlantic and cross into this basin to provide a seed for development.

I hope we get to Odalys this year. For some reason I really like how that name looks.