BoB: INVEST 90B

[Jay Typhoon]

90B INVEST 200501 0000 8.0N 94.0E IO 15 0

[Jay Typhoon]

90B INVEST 200501 0600 8.1N 93.9E IO 15 1010

[Jay Typhoon]

Sub: Low Pressure area over south Andaman Sea & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal.
A Low Pressure area has formed over south Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal
in the morning hours of today the 01st May 2020.Its intensification is expected to be slow and delayed.
Accordingly, it is likely to become more marked over the same region during next 48 hours,
concentrate into a Depression over Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal during
subsequent 48 hours and intensify further thereafter. It is very likely to move north-northwestwards
gradually till 05th May.
Under its influence, the following adverse weather is likely over south Andaman Sea and adjoining
southeast Bay of Bengal and Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 5 days.

[doomhaMwx]

I don't understand why the other global models are on and off with development. The favorable MJO is in the area, and according to the CPC, this is coinciding with the passage of an equatorial Rossby wave, further increasing the chances of development.

[Jay Typhoon]

90B INVEST 200501 1200 8.2N 93.8E IO 15 1010

[aspen]

I don't understand why the other global models are on and off with development. The favorable MJO is in the area, and according to the CPC, this is coinciding with the passage of an equatorial Rossby wave, further increasing the chances of development.

https://i.imgur.com/ODKJbCN.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/CtY770d.png

Yeah, it’s surprising that the GFS is very iffy about this system. Usually it would be very aggressive, but that role has been taken by the Euro; the latest GFS run doesn’t even show significant development.

[Jay Typhoon]

90B INVEST 200502 0000 6.5N 93.5E IO 15 1010

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro has become nothing, like really did the models overhype the current MJO?

[doomhaMwx]

I am skeptical with those intense model solutions anyway, even with the ECMWF. In the seasonal TC outlook that I came up with for the NIO this 2020, I am expecting 0-1 major cyclones (cat 3+), with that "one" forming during the post-monsoon season. I also explicitly mentioned there that the first cyclone (cat 1-2) will form on October-November, but I was actually preparing for this part to bust with this system. Given how ideal enough conditions are (or were), I think a minimal cyclone would not be out of the question.

Anyway, it's still too early to call off development, but indeed, the development time keeps getting delayed. I still think a tropical/cyclonic storm is likely, but if this doesn't become one this week, it'll probably never will due to unfavorable conditions associated with the arrival of the dry phase of the MJO.

[doomhaMwx]

Recent visible satellite images seem to show an exposed or partially exposed LLCC near the Andaman and Nicobar islands but convective activity associated with the disturbance is very limited at the moment. IMD is back to 0% chance of development during the next 5 days.

[BYG Jacob]

Yuck

[Jay Typhoon]

90B INVEST 200506 0000 7.3N 91.7E IO 15 1009

[cycloneye]

90B INVEST 200506 0000 7.3N 91.7E IO 15 1009

Do you have the link to the best track? The NRL one is not working.

[Jay Typhoon]

90B INVEST 200506 0000 7.3N 91.7E IO 15 1009

Do you have the link to the best track? The NRL one is not working.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... ector_file

[doomhaMwx]

The NRL appears to have stopped tracking 90B near the northern coast of Sumatra for about 24hrs now, but the odds are high that it will be re-designated by them. The IMD also dropped the system from a low pressure area but expects redevelopment on the next few days. This basically has not moved much and has remained in this same general area in the past week, but guess what, global models haven't given up in developing it into a tropical storm when it moves into the open BOB on the next few days. Could this be for real this time?

[wxman57]

It's deja-vu all over again. Right where we were a week ago. Euro developing it in 4-5 days and taking it to India, GFS & Canadian north to Myanmar. Last Monday, the EC had it near the east coast of India by tomorrow. Now it's early next week. Will future model runs this week again delay development? We'll see.