WPAC: VONGFONG - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

95W INVEST 200511 1200 9.1N 129.0E WPAC 20 1006

[Hayabusa]

Finally

TD
Issued at 13:25 UTC, 11 May 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 11 May>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N8°30' (8.5°)
E129°00' (129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 12 May>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°35' (10.6°)
E128°40' (128.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

[dexterlabio]

If this convection wrap up continues we can definitely see Vongfong tomorrow, perhaps before noon?

[mrbagyo]

Of the 9 historical Tropical systems that passed within 1° of 95W's current position during the month of May, only 1 didn't make landfall in the Philippines (TS Iris - 1962).
There is a significant bifurcation between GFS and ECMWF's solution and history kinda favor Euro's track this time (nothing is set in stone though, a lot can still change).

[Hayabusa]

12Z Euro caving in to GFS...

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to TD 01W.

01W ONE 200511 1800 9.6N 128.8E WPAC 25 1004

[1900hurricane]

Looks like a good call to me. You could have classified 6-12 hours ago if you were feeling aggressive, but this is a good clear point to initiate the renumber based on recent scatterometer data.

[Hayabusa]

Typhoon peak.

WDPN31 PGTW 112000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 547
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION OFFSET SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH SOME WEAKER FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE ASSESSED CENTER POSITION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A PARTIAL 1237Z ASCAT-B PASS AND ACCOMPANYING AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND ANALYSIS OF EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDS WHICH CAN BE SEEN WRAPPING INTO THE OBSCURED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25-30KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD, AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SHIP OBSERVATION OF 28 KNOTS FROM A VESSEL LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT POSITION. ANALYSIS
INDICATES TD 01W LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT)
RELATIVE VWS, MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A WEAK POINT SOURCE ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) IN THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLANDS WITH A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AXIS ALONG ROUGHLY 145E LONGITUDE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 01W WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DEEP-LAYER STR REMAINS ENTRENCHED FAR TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, BY TAU 36 THE STR BEGINS TO REORIENT ONTO A GENERALLY EAST-WEST ORIENTATION AND MOVES TO NEAR 130E LONGITUDE, PUSHING TD 01W ONTO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE NORTH SHORE OF SAMAR ISLAND BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF LUZON AROUND TAU 72. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 72 WITH THE POINT SOURCE REMAINING OVERHEAD PROVIDING STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW VWS, FUELING STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 01W WILL TRACK NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHEAST, DRAG ACROSS THE LENGTH OF LUZON ISLAND AND THEN REEMERGE OVER WATER IN THE BABUYUAN CHANNEL BY TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF LUZON. HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE MAINTENANCE OF ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AFTER TAU 96 WILL SERVE TO OFFSET MORE DRASTIC WEAKENING AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REEMERGE OVER WATER AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM. NUMERICAL MODELS ALL CONCUR ON THE GENERAL STAIR STEP TRACK SCENARIO, THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EXACT TRACK, WITH CROSS-TRACK UNCERTAINTY AT TAU 72 EXCEEDING 250NM. BEYOND TAU 72 CROSS AND ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY INCREASE TO MORE THAN 300NM BETWEEN OUTLIERS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES JUST WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24, WHILE IT LIES NORTH AND EAST, AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN LIGHT OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY EVIDENT IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[aspen]

Typhoon peak.
https://i.imgur.com/Qs4nZdh.gif

WDPN31 PGTW 112000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 547
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION OFFSET SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH SOME WEAKER FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE ASSESSED CENTER POSITION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A PARTIAL 1237Z ASCAT-B PASS AND ACCOMPANYING AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND ANALYSIS OF EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDS WHICH CAN BE SEEN WRAPPING INTO THE OBSCURED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25-30KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD, AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SHIP OBSERVATION OF 28 KNOTS FROM A VESSEL LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT POSITION. ANALYSIS
INDICATES TD 01W LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT)
RELATIVE VWS, MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A WEAK POINT SOURCE ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) IN THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLANDS WITH A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AXIS ALONG ROUGHLY 145E LONGITUDE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 01W WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DEEP-LAYER STR REMAINS ENTRENCHED FAR TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, BY TAU 36 THE STR BEGINS TO REORIENT ONTO A GENERALLY EAST-WEST ORIENTATION AND MOVES TO NEAR 130E LONGITUDE, PUSHING TD 01W ONTO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE NORTH SHORE OF SAMAR ISLAND BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF LUZON AROUND TAU 72. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 72 WITH THE POINT SOURCE REMAINING OVERHEAD PROVIDING STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW VWS, FUELING STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 01W WILL TRACK NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHEAST, DRAG ACROSS THE LENGTH OF LUZON ISLAND AND THEN REEMERGE OVER WATER IN THE BABUYUAN CHANNEL BY TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF LUZON. HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE MAINTENANCE OF ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AFTER TAU 96 WILL SERVE TO OFFSET MORE DRASTIC WEAKENING AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REEMERGE OVER WATER AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM. NUMERICAL MODELS ALL CONCUR ON THE GENERAL STAIR STEP TRACK SCENARIO, THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EXACT TRACK, WITH CROSS-TRACK UNCERTAINTY AT TAU 72 EXCEEDING 250NM. BEYOND TAU 72 CROSS AND ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY INCREASE TO MORE THAN 300NM BETWEEN OUTLIERS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES JUST WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24, WHILE IT LIES NORTH AND EAST, AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN LIGHT OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY EVIDENT IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

That track is more west than some of the latest model runs, and takes it further into the Philippines. Some have been suggesting it could stay offshore or just barely graze the coast.

[dexterlabio]

Convection still wrapping nicely, perhaps due to the TUTT in the Pacific moving farther away. A TS in a few hours seems likely to me.

[Nancy Smar]

2020-05-12 00:00 UTC

- nameless -
Position: 9.02N 129.15E
CI: 1.5 | DT: 2.0
MET: 1.5 | PT: 1.5
FT: 1.5

[1900hurricane]

00Z intensity is up to 30 kt from JTWC.

WP, 01, 2020051200, , BEST, 0, 101N, 1288E, 30, 1003, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 135, 35, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, ONE, M,

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1260030648049262592

[Hayabusa]

WDPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SLIGHTLY OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SEMICIRCLE. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH
OVERSHOOTING TOPS DEVELOPING IN THE CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE
ENVELOPE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE OBSCURED LLCC
IN THE MSI LOOP, AS WELL AS EXTRAPOLATION FROM A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION APPARENT IN 112330Z ASCAT-A DATA TO THE CENTER OF LOW
LEVEL FEATURES IN A 120456Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (PGTW 30 KTS) AND T1.5 (RJTD 30 KTS) AND
IS IN LINE WITH THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION PRESENT IN MSI. TD 01W
LIES IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH
LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, GOOD EQUATORWARD AND MODEST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS THAT
CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TD 01W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR
CENTERED NORTH OF GUAM. THIS STR IS CURRENTLY BUILDING FARTHER
WESTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON AND WILL RESULT IN SUBSEQUENT
STEERING OF TD 01W IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION FROM TAU 24 UNTIL
LANDFALL NEAR SAMAR ISLAND AT TAU 48. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM TRAVELS OVER WATER. AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE SITUATED
ABOVE THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE STRONG OUTFLOW, WHILE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN HIGH (28-29C) AND VWS IS TO
REMAIN LOW (5-10 KTS) ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE PEAK I
INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AT TAU 48 WHEREUPON THE S
SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AT S
SAMAR ISLAND DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. AFTER REACHING L
LANDFALL AT TAU 48, TD 01W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE C
COME INTO IMPROVING AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 (128 NM SPREAD AT TAU 4
48, 145NM SPREAD AT TAU 72) LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION O
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72 TD 01W WILL BEGIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL TAU
96 AS IT TRAVELS INLAND. THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION
WILL HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND LEAD TO SLIGTH WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM, HOWEVER THIS WEAKENING WILL BE OFFSET BY CONTINUED ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS (5-10 KTS). OUTFLOW FROM A TROPICAL
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA WILL IMPINGE UPON THE OUTFLOW OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
INLAND HOWEVER THIS CELL IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL SOUTHWARD AND CEASE
INTERACTION WITH TD 01W BY TAU 72, AT WHICH POINT IT WILL HAVE
WEAKENED TO 65 KTS. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO 50 KTS AS
IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE AXIS OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND
TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. IT WILL RETAIN ITS INTENSITY OF 50 KTS
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENTLY LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AFTER THIS TIME AND REACH THE WARM WATERS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA
NORTH OF APARRI BY TAU 120. THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASES
TO 145 NM BY TAU 72 AND THEN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES TO 270 NM BY
TAU 96. THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS DUE TO THE TIMING OF
THE BUILDING AND REORIENTATION OF THE STEERING RIDGE WITH EACH OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS PROVIDING A DIFFERENT CENTER POSITION OF THE RIDGE
AT TAU 96-120. THIS INCREASING SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU
72 LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

[doomhaMwx]

The first 48hrs of the latest JTWC forecast track seems to favor the ECMWF tracks. West rather than other model guidance which are more WNW. This might actually emerge into the South China Sea first before turning poleward.

[Hayabusa]

Well Vongfong, are you gonna be just weak or try to be like your previous iteration?

TS 2001 (Vongfong)
Issued at 13:20 UTC, 12 May 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 12 May>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°50' (10.8°)
E129°10' (129.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 280 km (150 NM)
SW 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 13 May>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°30' (12.5°)
E127°50' (127.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 14 May>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°55' (12.9°)
E125°00' (125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 165 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 15 May>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°10' (14.2°)
E121°25' (121.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 May>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°25' (17.4°)
E119°10' (119.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 May>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°40' (20.7°)
E122°35' (122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)

[aspen]

Well Vongfong, are you gonna be just weak or try to be like your previous iteration?

https://i.imgur.com/0qc4ZGp.png

TS 2001 (Vongfong)
Issued at 13:20 UTC, 12 May 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 12 May>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°50' (10.8°)
E129°10' (129.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 280 km (150 NM)
SW 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 13 May>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°30' (12.5°)
E127°50' (127.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 14 May>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°55' (12.9°)
E125°00' (125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 165 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 15 May>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°10' (14.2°)
E121°25' (121.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 May>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°25' (17.4°)
E119°10' (119.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 May>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°40' (20.7°)
E122°35' (122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)

I doubt Vongfong is going to go that far into the Philippines; only the Euro model shows that scenario, and the rest have it skimming the coast.

The system is so tiny and compact that perhaps we could see a phase of surprise RI, similar to Ambali ‘19, although I don’t anticipate a Cat 5 or even a Cat 4. A Cat 3 seems like a reasonable maximum intensity prediction.

[dexterlabio]

I doubt Vongfong is going to go that far into the Philippines; only the Euro model shows that scenario, and the rest have it skimming the coast.

The system is so tiny and compact that perhaps we could see a phase of surprise RI, similar to Ambali ‘19, although I don’t anticipate a Cat 5 or even a Cat 4. A Cat 3 seems like a reasonable maximum intensity prediction.

JTWC has pretty much the same forecast track. I don't know what you mean by skimming but even CMC which has the northernmost solution is showing a land hit on Luzon.

[dexterlabio]

Is this the beginning of a banding eye feature?