Texas Spring 2020

[Cpv17]

Lots of rain and severe weather coming according to the CPC.

[TheProfessor]

We've been cashing in here in Louisiana the past couple of week. The outflow boundary produced by the storms today caused more storms to initiate and move over my area, so we'll likely see more rain than forecasted, possibly 1-3". That's on top of the widespread 3-5" we saw a couple of weeks ago. Hopefully you south Texas folks can cash in on the rain soon as well.

In other news I got accepted into FIU's Disaster Management graduate program, so depending on how things play out the next couple of months I'll be down in Miami for the next 12 months starting in August.

[bubba hotep]

Euro & Gfs showing some good rain chances on Tuesday too. Fingers crossed!

Next two weeks look good for Texas, the areas that really need the rain down South.

[ravyrn]

Not sure what happened just on the western outskirts of Jacksonville overnight off of US79. I live on east end of town and heard some thunder late last night but didn't really seem to be much but a run of the mill thunderstorm. Going to work this morning at 6:30am I get just on the western outskirts of town on US79 and I see a trees down and a telephone pole split at a 90 degree angle about 10 feet off the ground. Perhaps a microburst? The damage was very localized to the area just north of Lake Jacksonville on US79.

[Cpv17]

I’m not buying into this coming weekends system yet. My confidence is still kinda low that we’ll see anything significant.

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro EPS with the I35 Special

[South Texas Storms]

00z Euro EPS with the I35 Special

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/total_precip_inch/1589068800/1590364800-JLa8Cx8HtrU.png

Yes please!

[Cpv17]

The Euro isn’t really looking all that great for SETX. Central Texas is definitely looking like the big winner atm.

[Haris]

[Ntxw]

Things are definitely transitioning to a more Spring like pattern. In an April post I made that May (late) would have a window for severe weather/rainfall more akin to normal. April and early May was shot due to the NW flow and cool troughs, centering outbreaks in Dixie. The sub-seasonal transition, as well as tropical forcing will shift the Eastern US trough to Western US trough. In the Spring a western trough usually provides opportunities for tornado/severe weather outbreaks in the more typical Great Plains/Tornado Alley locations.

Along with this comes ample rainfall from the Pacific. We'll likely have some significant chase worthy days coming up the last week or so of May.

[Cpv17]

Things are definitely transitioning to a more Spring like pattern. In an April post I made that May (late) would have a window for severe weather/rainfall more akin to normal. April and early May was shot due to the NW flow and cool troughs, centering outbreaks in Dixie. The sub-seasonal transition, as well as tropical forcing will shift the Eastern US trough to Western US trough. In the Spring a western trough usually provides opportunities for tornado/severe weather outbreaks in the more typical Great Plains/Tornado Alley locations.

Along with this comes ample rainfall from the Pacific. We'll likely have some significant chase worthy days coming up the last week or so of May.

Post more often please

[weatherdude1108]

Maybe SA will cash in(?).

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
242 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
The current weather pattern is defined by west southwesterly flow at
500 mb thanks to a subtle impulse over Baja California with
southeasterly flow at the surface. Moisture return has begun with
dew points this afternoon 10 plus degrees warmer than this time
yesterday. Temperatures this afternoon primarily range from the
upper 70s to mid 80s under partly cloudy skies. Thunderstorms are
likely to develop later this afternoon across the Trans-Pecos and
off the del Burros of Mexico and move eastward late this evening.
There is still plenty of disagreement among models in how they
handle the eastward progression of this convection late tonight and
into Tuesday morning. The Texas Tech WRF continues to be the most
bullish, suggesting an MCS crossing the Rio Grande late tonight and
reaching as far east as San Antonio by 6 AM Tuesday before
dissipating. Other models show convection dying entirely before
reaching the region. Trends will be monitored and the forecast will
be updated as necessary, but for now will continue to show chance
PoPs across much of the region for late tonight into Tuesday
morning. SPC continues to maintain a marginal risk for severe storms
for portions of Maverick, Kinney, Edwards, and Val Verde Counties
with large hail and strong thunderstorm wind gusts being the
threats. Overnight lows tonight will be much warmer than last
night/this morning with a stratus deck developing shortly after
midnight keeping temps in the mid to upper 60s.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
again on Tuesday afternoon and evening, with SPC highlighting an
area from Burnet to San Antonio to Cuero and points north and east
within another marginal risk area for severe thunderstorms. High
temperatures will be fairly similar to those of today aside from a
few degrees warmer across the Rio Grande Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
There are two periods of active weather in the long term. The first
will come across the Rio Grande late Wednesday afternoon into the
overnight hours. With moisture return in full swing the West Texas
dryline will interact with a disturbance moving across the state to
kick off thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. While these should form
the west of the area as multicell clusters and isolated supercells
(thanks to the initial capping inversion) with the westerly/northwesterly
flow aloft they should make their way eastward toward Val Verde
County and the Rio Grande Plains. Model soundings show ample CAPE and
shear to allow for these storms to sustain themselves at least into
the evening and early overnight hours. The current SPC day 3 outlook
includes Val Verde, Edwards, and parts of Kinney County in a Marginal
risk to cover this threat.

Thursday will be a day between weather systems with southerly flow
continuing thanks to the large surface high off the Eastern United
States. Partly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures warming up
to a few degrees either side of 90 degrees in the afternoon. This is
still a few degrees warmer than normal.

The next system will be a trough that moves across Texas Friday night
into Saturday morning. By Sunday the upper low will be across the
ArkLaTex with all 3 major long term models (GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian)
showing it as a cut off low along the TX/LA border. While solutions
between the 3 models diverge beyond Sunday it looks like the most
relevant time for South Central Texas weather will be late Friday
night through Saturday night. The upper low itself will produce
plenty of lift and interact with a very juicy environment across
South Central Texas. GFS precipitable water values show pockets of
1.75 to 2 inches for Friday night through Saturday afternoon. Based
on SPC sounding climatology from CRP that is near their max moving
average for mid May. This will result in the threat of locally heavy
rainfall during this period. While models continue to differ on the
amount and placement of the heavy rainfall, WPC (Weather Prediction
Center) is going with widespread 2-3 inch rainfall totals during this
period. Isolated higher totals are to be expected. The forecast for
the Friday night and Saturday time frame will continue to be refined
as models come into better agreement over the next few days. One
thing is certain, this looks like the best chance for rain most
areas, including San Antonio, have seen in a good while.

Rain should continue into Sunday as the upper level gets stuck to the
east of South Central Texas and then either gets caught up in the
broad upper level flow and moves eastward or fills and weakens by
mid-week depending on your model of choice.

&&

[South Texas Storms]

Maybe SA will cash in(?).

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
242 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020

snip

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
There are two periods of active weather in the long term. The first
will come across the Rio Grande late Wednesday afternoon into the
overnight hours. With moisture return in full swing the West Texas
dryline will interact with a disturbance moving across the state to
kick off thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. While these should form
the west of the area as multicell clusters and isolated supercells
(thanks to the initial capping inversion) with the westerly/northwesterly
flow aloft they should make their way eastward toward Val Verde
County and the Rio Grande Plains. Model soundings show ample CAPE and
shear to allow for these storms to sustain themselves at least into
the evening and early overnight hours. The current SPC day 3 outlook
includes Val Verde, Edwards, and parts of Kinney County in a Marginal
risk to cover this threat.

Thursday will be a day between weather systems with southerly flow
continuing thanks to the large surface high off the Eastern United
States. Partly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures warming up
to a few degrees either side of 90 degrees in the afternoon. This is
still a few degrees warmer than normal.

The next system will be a trough that moves across Texas Friday night
into Saturday morning. By Sunday the upper low will be across the
ArkLaTex with all 3 major long term models (GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian)
showing it as a cut off low along the TX/LA border. While solutions
between the 3 models diverge beyond Sunday it looks like the most
relevant time for South Central Texas weather will be late Friday
night through Saturday night. The upper low itself will produce
plenty of lift and interact with a very juicy environment across
South Central Texas. GFS precipitable water values show pockets of
1.75 to 2 inches for Friday night through Saturday afternoon. Based
on SPC sounding climatology from CRP that is near their max moving
average for mid May. This will result in the threat of locally heavy
rainfall during this period. While models continue to differ on the
amount and placement of the heavy rainfall, WPC (Weather Prediction
Center) is going with widespread 2-3 inch rainfall totals during this
period. Isolated higher totals are to be expected. The forecast for
the Friday night and Saturday time frame will continue to be refined
as models come into better agreement over the next few days. One
thing is certain, this looks like the best chance for rain most
areas, including San Antonio, have seen in a good while.

Rain should continue into Sunday as the upper level gets stuck to the
east of South Central Texas and then either gets caught up in the
broad upper level flow and moves eastward or fills and weakens by
mid-week depending on your model of choice.

&&

Let's hope so weatherdude! They really need it!

[weatherdude1108]

Quite a switch in today's forecast, thanks to the MCV.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000
FXUS64 KEWX 120845
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
345 AM CDT Tue May 12 2020

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
This morning we are seeing an escalation of the shortwave ejection
eastward from higher terrain and an amplification of the vorticity
as the disturbance moves east. This is resulting in a dramatic
increase in rain chances and the amount of precipitation potential.
The wide variance seen in the model data from yesterday is now
converging in to a more cohesive picture that heavy rainfall is
indeed possible in the general vicinity of the MCV from early this
morning through late this afternoon. There is actually a pair of
MCVs moving through the area, the leading MCV being noted on radar
just northeast of Crystal City and the larger trailing MCV located
near Ozona in Crockett county. The Trailing MCV is forecast with
good model agreement to overtake/absorb the lead MCV later this
morning and tighten up as it reaches the eastern Hill Country by
late afternoon. Model QPF amounts have collectively shot up to match
some of the higher numbers advertised by the more alarming NAM model
from yesterday. The presence of the lead MCV appears to be steering
the focus farther south than what was seen in yesterday`s model
solutions, so areas along and south of I-10 from San Antonio to
Schulenburg should be seeing the most dramatic shift in PoPs for
today. With the rapid increase in QPF amounts among several models,
the pattern has gained the attention of WPC which has now included
Central TX into a MRGL risk of excessive rainfall. Some of the finer
res solutions are showing pockets of 5+ inch amounts, but some of
these models can way over amplify the rainfall potential. If this
signal continues as new runs arrive and pinpoint the same areas, we
may need to consider a small scale flash flood watch. For now, we
have locally heavy rainfall mentioned in the forecast and continue
to monitor. In addition to the heavy rainfall potential, the storms
have a MRGL threat to reach severe levels with large hail and
damaging winds possible from the strongest storms.

The increase in magnitude of the MCV pattern will result in
increased PoPs lingering into the evening, but looking at the
various convective available models, there could be some strong
outflows that develop in the late afternoon, and leading to much
lower rainfall rates and QPF by 00Z. The pattern aloft is left flat
for Wednesday and that leads to additional conditional rain chances.
While there is a slight chance for some lingering daytime convection
Wednesday, the emphasis shifts back to the west after 00Z as a new
shortwave disturbance arrives into west TX.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Isolated to widely scattered storms may be ongoing Wednesday evening
across far western areas of the CWA, mainly Val Verde County. There
is a Day 2 Slight Risk for severe storms from SPC. Large hail and
damaging winds are the primary threat. Currently we expect these
storms to weaken overnight. A few streamer showers and storms may
develop farther east, near and east of I-35 and I-37, on Thursday

Models continue to indicate increasing rain chances across much of
the area Friday night through Saturday along with a threat for
locally heavy rainfall. A shortwave trough will deepen as it moves
across Mexico on Friday, moving into western areas of the CWA Friday
night, and closing off into a low somewhere over or just north of the
CWA Saturday. This will place locations along and west of the I-35
corridor in a favorable environment for lift and the development of
showers and storms Friday night and along and east of the I-35
corridor on Saturday. Details on the specific evolution and mode of
storms still has to be refined. However, there does appear there
could be a severe threat and locally heavy rainfall risk Friday
night between Del Rio and San Antonio, transitioning to a locally
heavy rainfall threat as the storms progress east...into and east of
the I-35 corridor on Saturday. By 12Z Saturday precipitable water
values of around 2" are indicated to be pooled along and east of
I-35, which is into the 90th percentile on the CFSR climatology.
While it`s difficult still at this time to pinpoint locations for
heavy rainfall and amounts, it does appear there could be some
pockets of storm total rainfall from Friday night through Saturday in
excess of 3 inches somewhere across the CWA. We will continue to
message a threat for locally heavy rainfall.

Forecast confidence decreases Sunday and Monday as there is a large
spread on where the upper level low ends up. The 00Z GFS stalls the
low just near and northeast of the CWA Sunday and retrogrades it
back into Central Texas on Monday. The 00Z ECMWF is more progressive
with moving the low off to the east, into Arkansas and Louisiana,
Sunday into Monday. We have followed closer to the NBM PoPs for the
time being.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Seeing the event coming this weekend on the models is both exciting and slightly worrying. A ULL stuck over Texas in the spring/summer will make BIG "efficient" rain makers. Going to be tough to forecast until the storms pop up, but I'd be prepared if you live in a flood prone area.

Something I've noticed from these large events, while we are currently expecting a large swatch of 2-4" of rain, many areas locally will receive sometimes double that.

For SE Tx, as the ULL creeps closer to the GOM, it creates a large area of heavy rainfall that could cause serious issues for us.

[Cpv17]

Seeing the event coming this weekend on the models is both exciting and slightly worrying. A ULL stuck over Texas in the spring/summer will make BIG "efficient" rain makers. Going to be tough to forecast until the storms pop up, but I'd be prepared if you live in a flood prone area.

Something I've noticed from these large events, while we are currently expecting a large swatch of 2-4" of rain, many areas locally will receive sometimes double that.

For SE Tx, as the ULL creeps closer to the GOM, it creates a large area of heavy rainfall that could cause serious issues for us.

Yep! Living here in the area, I’ve seen this situation play out a time or two before. Plus, we’re prone to a flood in the month of May. Last year in the month of May at my job in Rosenberg we got 12”, while 30 min sw of there at my house in Wharton we got nothing.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Seeing the event coming this weekend on the models is both exciting and slightly worrying. A ULL stuck over Texas in the spring/summer will make BIG "efficient" rain makers. Going to be tough to forecast until the storms pop up, but I'd be prepared if you live in a flood prone area.

Something I've noticed from these large events, while we are currently expecting a large swatch of 2-4" of rain, many areas locally will receive sometimes double that.

For SE Tx, as the ULL creeps closer to the GOM, it creates a large area of heavy rainfall that could cause serious issues for us.

Yep! Living here in the area, I’ve seen this situation play out a time or two before. Plus, we’re prone to a flood in the month of May. Last year in the month of May at my job in Rosenberg we got 12”, while 30 min sw of there at my house in Wharton we got nothing.

I remember the event. I have pictures on my PWS showing 7"/hr rain rate for around 30 minutes.

[WacoWx]

Rotation east of Lockhart @ 9:20a.

[Haris]

[JDawg512]

Finally after 12 days of dry weather May is starting to live up to it's reputation. Been getting slammed here at the Rain Cave this morning, a slight calming currently, but only temporary before more heavy rain slides in. Classic Balconies Uplift sort of setup where storms are training up along the I35 corridor along and to the east of the Balconies Escarpment.