(Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas: (Invest 90L thread is up)

[DioBrando]

Without the strength, thank god. We just finished repairs a couple of months ago

i was legit scared because i thought this thing might actually pull a humberto last night especially with the waters being roasty toasty and getting toastier...
how likely would this scenario play out?

Very unlikely. It's May, not September. The track may be similar, but the SSTs are much colder than they were for Humberto.

PHEW! -wipes sweat from forehead-

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If we see development, it'll be the 6th year in a row with a TC before June 1st.

[GCANE]

CAPE, TPW, and RH all forecast to be high enough to support afternoon, popup thunderstorms over Cuba.
Appears a surface low will develop along the north shore of Cuba.
500mb winds blowing SW to NE will push the remnants of the thunderstorms into the surface low.
Good setup for development.

[Kazmit]

i was legit scared because i thought this thing might actually pull a humberto last night especially with the waters being roasty toasty and getting toastier...
how likely would this scenario play out?

Very unlikely. It's May, not September. The track may be similar, but the SSTs are much colder than they were for Humberto.

PHEW! -wipes sweat from forehead-

Indeed- plus SSTs are cooler than normal around Bermuda, especially to the west where future Arthur would track.

[BadLarry95]

Can May be hurricane season now?

[WeatherEmperor]

18z GFS continues showing development





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[Aric Dunn]

Dont expect an immediate out to sea track.

Central florida to Carolinas are well in play.

Timing of when this starts coming together is key.

We are talking like a 6 to 12 hr window .. trapped or out to sea.

Regardless of whatever this turns out to be

[cycloneye]

70% in 5 days

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this
week or early this weekend a couple of hundred miles north of
the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm
is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over
the western Atlantic. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Wednesday, or earlier, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Nimbus]

The energy dropping down into the gulf off Texas looks like it might have time to reinforce in 78 hours.
Crazy long range forecast with these SST's did WXman57 not see his shadow?
They usually wait for a clear low level circulation near South Florida or Bahamas.

[TheStormExpert]

Dont expect an immediate out to sea track.

Central florida to Carolinas are well in play.

Timing of when this starts coming together is key.

We are talking like a 6 to 12 hr window .. trapped or out to sea.

Regardless of whatever this turns out to be

The 500mb pattern we’ve been in would beg to differ!

[BadLarry95]

I’ll just post my entire year’s prediction

Arthur- late May 65 mph, non tropical origin off the SE coast, heads OTS

Well this is looking like a distinct possibility now. Aside from the time of the month.

Huge ego boost for ol’ Larry here

[Aric Dunn]

Dont expect an immediate out to sea track.

Central florida to Carolinas are well in play.

Timing of when this starts coming together is key.

We are talking like a 6 to 12 hr window .. trapped or out to sea.

Regardless of whatever this turns out to be

The 500mb pattern we’ve been in would beg to differ!

"been in" ... that is all about to change if you have not noticed from the models.. in 2 days it will completely flip leaving only small clipper short waves swinging through.

of which the euro has been back and forth with on out to sea or turning back west.. all depending on the timing of when something consolidates..

also from the models the out to sea solution appears dependent on the vorticity stretching out to NE and re organizing.

on sunday into monday the euro has weak clipper system over the great lakes. 00z was faster with that and thus no out to sea.. 12z today the euro was slower with the clipper which then picked it up.

anyway all models show a complete flip in the pattern. and until we have a least a broad rotation and lowering of pressure down there the models are going to be wishy washy..

[floridasun78]

i good feeling this may gave part bahama bad weather and move to north east all weatherman here fl expect that and nhc i dont see any thing that pull it west we here going get tail of it cross state by friday

[TheStormExpert]

Dont expect an immediate out to sea track.

Central florida to Carolinas are well in play.

Timing of when this starts coming together is key.

We are talking like a 6 to 12 hr window .. trapped or out to sea.

Regardless of whatever this turns out to be

The 500mb pattern we’ve been in would beg to differ!

"been in" ... that is all about to change if you have not noticed from the models.. in 2 days it will completely flip leaving only small clipper short waves swinging through.

of which the euro has been back and forth with on out to sea or turning back west.. all depending on the timing of when something consolidates..

also from the models the out to sea solution appears dependent on the vorticity stretching out to NE and re organizing.

on sunday into monday the euro has weak clipper system over the great lakes. 00z was faster with that and thus no out to sea.. 12z today the euro was slower with the clipper which then picked it up.

anyway all models show a complete flip in the pattern. and until we have a least a broad rotation and lowering of pressure down there the models are going to be wishy washy..

Regardless of the pattern change this is more than likely going out to sea.

[GCANE]

5/13 06Z GFS showing stronger convection now in the Straits with a surface low forming in the Keys and then riding half-way up the east coast of FL.
Very strong dry-line setup to kick off heavy convection from the shortwave passing thru.
Looks solid.

[GCANE]

Dryline settling in now with TPW intensifying.

[Aric Dunn]

5/13 06Z GFS showing stronger convection now in the Straits with a surface low forming in the Keys and then riding half-way up the east coast of FL.
Very strong dry-line setup to kick off heavy convection from the shortwave passing thru.
Looks solid.

https://i.imgur.com/Vhe4CUB.png

https://i.imgur.com/pot5J8s.png

https://i.imgur.com/BPBJU7X.png

https://i.imgur.com/5p4TgAh.png

https://i.imgur.com/ZjAkLdu.png

https://i.imgur.com/7sfYmAT.png

Yeah the west vs east battle of vorticity continues.. this run the GFS has a stronger western lobe and thus a track closer to the coast similar to the euro from 00z tuesday.. and for now, i am disregarding the large cold core low dropping south off the east coast per the GFS and euro. seems an unlikely feature. up tp 96 hours seems reasonable on both the GFS and euro. after that it becomes diluted..

also looks like most of the vorticity comes out of the north western carrib and into the SE gulf and florida straights per GFS and EURO even the NAM and ICON show this.

[GCANE]

Run-to-run in GFS, seeing a big drop in 355K PV northeast of the vort.
If the model continues along this line, we could see a pretty rapid spin up.

[GCANE]

5/13 06Z GFS showing stronger convection now in the Straits with a surface low forming in the Keys and then riding half-way up the east coast of FL.
Very strong dry-line setup to kick off heavy convection from the shortwave passing thru.
Looks solid.

https://i.imgur.com/Vhe4CUB.png

https://i.imgur.com/pot5J8s.png

https://i.imgur.com/BPBJU7X.png

https://i.imgur.com/5p4TgAh.png

https://i.imgur.com/ZjAkLdu.png

https://i.imgur.com/7sfYmAT.png

Yeah the west vs east battle of vorticity continues.. this run the GFS has a stronger western lobe and thus a track closer to the coast similar to the euro from 00z tuesday.. and for now, i am disregarding the large cold core low dropping south off the east coast per the GFS and euro. seems an unlikely feature. up tp 96 hours seems reasonable on both the GFS and euro. after that it becomes diluted..

also looks like most of the vorticity comes out of the north western carrib and into the SE gulf and florida straights per GFS and EURO even the NAM and ICON show this.

Latest run showing a stronger tilt on the shortwave.

[SFLcane]

Watching from SFL for heavy rain potential and gusty winds.