WPAC: VONGFONG - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

Don't think the dry air is going to be much of an issue for Vongfong. AMSU derived PW analysis does show some slightly lower PW air being entrained into the circulation. However, I place emphasis on slightly, as PWs are analyzed to still be over 2" and overall not too much drier than the surrounding environment. The slightly drier airmass conveniently passes over Palau, so we are able to sample it with the 12Z sounding, and data is consistent with the satellite derived analysis. Additionally, it does not appear that there are any significant dry layers. JTWC's intensity forecast appears on track to me.

[1900hurricane]

With regard to steering, it's actually not particularly strong right now. The stronger it gets, the higher the steering layer becomes, which should give it a little more of a north component (or maybe more accurately less of a west component), but not a ton. Beta drift may also play a part given weak steering, which would also encourage it a little further north. Intensity determines the track is something that I think is slightly overused, but it may indeed play a part here.

[aspen]

If Vongfong wants to become anything more than a low-end Cat 4, that CDO really needs to improve. It’s still quite thin and not that deep.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1260615385549869064



 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1260615388284497921



 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1260615390062948352



 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1260615652622163968

[Highteeld]

2020MAY13 171000 4.7 975.3 82.2 4.3 4.6 5.7 0.5T/hour ON FLG OFF OFF 9.45 -63.98 EYE 10 IR 6.9 12.17 -127.13 ARCHER HIM-8 21.2

[cycloneye]

Looks like a major cane now.

[Hayabusa]

90 kt peak that is translated to almost cat 4

TY 2001 (Vongfong)
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 13 May 2020

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 13 May>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°10' (12.2°)
E127°00' (127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 75 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 165 km (90 NM)
SW 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 14 May>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N12°35' (12.6°)
E124°20' (124.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (105 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 15 May>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°00' (15.0°)
E121°50' (121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 165 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 250 km (135 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 16 May>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°05' (18.1°)
E121°00' (121.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (165 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 17 May>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°55' (21.9°)
E124°10' (124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 480 km (260 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 18 May>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°10' (27.2°)
E132°40' (132.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45 km/h (23 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 650 km (360 NM)

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1260659041329528833

[Highteeld]

01W VONGFONG 200513 1800 12.1N 127.0E WPAC 105 957

[1900hurricane]

It's going to have to pull up pretty hard to avoid the northern portion of Samar.

[ManilaTC]

It's going to have to pull up pretty hard to avoid the northern portion of Samar.

Its headed for Oras and Dolores towns in Eastern Samar and may landfall there before noon. Its on the left part of the track, and the WNW turn is kinda late... is ECMWF on to something?...

Here is a shot of Guiuan Radar this morning.

[1900hurricane]

Is there a source for the Guiuan radar?

[Jay Typhoon]

2020-05-14 00:00 UTC

- Vongfong (2001) -
Position: 12.10N 126.26E
CI: 5.0 | DT: 5.0
MET: 4.5 | PT: 5.0
FT: 5.0

[ManilaTC]

Is there a source for the Guiuan radar?

Here https://v2-cloud.meteopilipinas.gov.ph/#

[dexterlabio]

Northern portion of Eastern Samar might also get clipped. How odd is this, seems like the models and the agencies have not picked up on this continued westward motion?

[1900hurricane]

Is there a source for the Guiuan radar?

Here https://v2-cloud.meteopilipinas.gov.ph/#

Thanks, really appreciate it! Going to make sure to save that one so I don't lose it.

[1900hurricane]

TPPN10 PGTW 140001

A. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG)

B. 13/2330Z

C. 12.07N

D. 126.24E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.5/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN
DG WITH +0.5 FOR BF YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/1806Z 12.10N 126.98E GPMI


RHOADES

[1900hurricane]

The radar imagery is still showing a due west motion. I think it's more likely it landfalls in Samar than not at this point.

[Hayabusa]

The 90 kt peak was dropped in the latest JMA forecast, likely due to that continued west motion.

[USTropics]

Rapid scan floater imagery: