(Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas: (Invest 90L thread is up)
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas
all weatherman here in miami say will likely form weak low east of keys and get stronger to ne of bahamas
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas
494
ABNT20 KNHC 132324
TWOAT
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.
A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop in a couple of
days near or just north of the Bahamas. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
subtropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend. The
system is expected to move generally northeastward over the western
Atlantic through early next week. The next Special Tropical Weather
Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Thursday, or
earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
ABNT20 KNHC 132324
TWOAT
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.
A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop in a couple of
days near or just north of the Bahamas. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
subtropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend. The
system is expected to move generally northeastward over the western
Atlantic through early next week. The next Special Tropical Weather
Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Thursday, or
earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas
Evening
If you look close on radar I see showers siding from the NE to the SW, but then also see showers off of Cuba moving NE.
If you look close on radar I see showers siding from the NE to the SW, but then also see showers off of Cuba moving NE.
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas
18z gfs has that clipper system dropping nearly off the coast of SC/NC border.. tad south of your usual track for high latitude systems lol.. not a likely scenario..
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas
Circulation / low level / north of western Cuba.


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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas
18z Euro from 24hr to 48 hrs. so this time tomorrow should be seeing some closing off. sheared of course...
real question is where it closes off...

real question is where it closes off...

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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas
Here is why the Ukmet is so much farther east then most of the models.. it has some energy/wave come from off of Hispaniola and closes off way east of everything else.


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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas
It's fascinating that preseason activity has become almost an expectation. Went most of the 80s, 90s, and early 00s with almost none.
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas
Aric Dunn wrote:18z Euro from 24hr to 48 hrs. so this time tomorrow should be seeing some closing off. sheared of course...
real question is where it closes off...
https://i.ibb.co/YtvSpxH/modezrpd-20200517-1200-animation.gif
Aric, can you post the precipitation/reflectivity loop of the 18z euro?
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas
SFLcane wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:18z Euro from 24hr to 48 hrs. so this time tomorrow should be seeing some closing off. sheared of course...
real question is where it closes off...
https://i.ibb.co/YtvSpxH/modezrpd-20200517-1200-animation.gif
Aric, can you post the precipitation/reflectivity loop of the 18z euro?
total accum is roughtly 1-3 inches for most of Se florida.
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas
Lite rain here in Key Largo most of the evening.
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas
Some decent midlevel rotation starting north of western side of Cuba on radar tomorrow will be fun.
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas
If it does start to come together that far west this early then timing will change a good deal.
Also looks like rain will overspread the keys and south florida more now and sooner
Also looks like rain will overspread the keys and south florida more now and sooner
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas
Aric Dunn wrote:If it does start to come together that far west this early then timing will change a good deal.
Also looks like rain will overspread the keys and south florida more now and sooner
Maybe..00z gfs has this low sliding south of the peninsula with minimal rainfall across the mainland. Looks like a non event based on the last few model runs.
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas
Arthur Memes are primed and ready to go!
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas
Much stronger TPW now, in and around the Straits.
UL Vort / 355K PV also diminshing in the same area.


UL Vort / 355K PV also diminshing in the same area.


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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas
A short duration, high helicity tower fired just off shore of Cuba.
However, shear blew it apart.
The station, indicated by the arrow, later measured a NW wind.
Obviously the tower momentarily pushed a small vort to the surface.

However, shear blew it apart.
The station, indicated by the arrow, later measured a NW wind.
Obviously the tower momentarily pushed a small vort to the surface.

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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas
Some broad, low-level rotation may be developing half way between Key West and Havana.
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas
06Z GFS just out.
Has this initialized now as a 1013mb surface low at +6 hr just off shore of Cuba.
18 hrs out and down to 1007mb, still just off shore of Cuba.
Looking at satellite, this may spin up today.
Especially keeping an eye on the possible development of low-level rotation in the middle of the Straits.
Has this initialized now as a 1013mb surface low at +6 hr just off shore of Cuba.
18 hrs out and down to 1007mb, still just off shore of Cuba.
Looking at satellite, this may spin up today.
Especially keeping an eye on the possible development of low-level rotation in the middle of the Straits.
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