WPAC: VONGFONG - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

"LLCC EMBEDDED IN DG WITH +0.5 FOR BF YIELDS A DT OF 4.5." Still cannot believe how bad that Dvorak fix was.

[aspen]

Rapid scan floater imagery:

https://i.ibb.co/yg0f0Dd/download.gif

Looks like the eye is starting to recover again. Also a pretty nice burst of convection wrapping around the center...although since it’s probably about to make landfall, that probably won’t amount to too much.

[Highteeld]

"LLCC EMBEDDED IN DG WITH +0.5 FOR BF YIELDS A DT OF 4.5." Still cannot believe how bad that Dvorak fix was.

https://i.imgur.com/i2d1Hov.png

Rhoades has a history of doing bad Dvorak fixes. I remember a few of them last year being way, way off.

[stormstrike]

If I’m not mistaken, JTWC is going for 90 kts on their next bulletin? That’s a big drop imo.

[1900hurricane]

[dexterlabio]

https://i.imgur.com/4K1FNxY.gif

I wonder how the track and intensity forecasts will change if there will be no pronounced northward motion yet in the next few hours. I think there might be a chance that the eye will emerge in the sea west of Northern Samar or just south of Sorsogon province.

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN10 PGTW 140259

A. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG)

B. 14/0230Z

C. 12.11N

D. 125.83E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

Why no eye adjustment?

[mrbagyo]

PAGASA's Guiuan radar image jumped from 8:15 to 11:00 AM. argggh. i hate it

[doomhaMwx]

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE GENERAL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, HOWEVER, DUE TO A WESTWARD SHIFT IN TRACK OVER LAND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY. ADDITIONALLY, THE TAU 96 AND 120 FORECAST POSITIONS HAVE BEEN MOVED BACK SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE TRACK SHIFT.

[doomhaMwx]

So close to the coast now.

[mrbagyo]

will come ashore any moment from now

[davidiowx]

Looks like landfall now

[dexterlabio]

Landfall near San Policarpo, Eastern Samar

[mrbagyo]

just a quick radar loop

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/dost_pagasa/status/1260792680231038976

[mrbagyo]

 https://twitter.com/fyt_ph/status/1260808229061156865

[Hayabusa]

Is Vongfong gonna continue to move even more west before turning north? Manila capital region could be under its sights if it continues to do so, and it would have more time over the Visayan Sea (if it moves over there) to possibly intensify again

JMA avoids the capital



While JTWC has Vongfong more closer to the capital

[dexterlabio]

As Vongfong crosses the Samar island, we wait for that NW turn to commence.

[mrbagyo]

JMA's forecast track yesterday

[dexterlabio]

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot_2020-05-14-15-41-29-466_com.miui.gallery.jpg

JMA's forecast track yesterday

No agencies saw the Samar landfall happening today. Even the global models did not see this, well perhaps except the UKMET. Now all of them are insisting that Vongfong will start turning to the NW and reach Camarines Sur tomorrow morning. At this point really I would rather watch for the storm's actual movements and not the projected path because clearly, the models do not have a good handle of this storm from the get-go.