ATL: ARTHUR - Models

[cycloneye]

18z GFS closer to coast and outer banks.

[drezee]

18z GFS also showing gust over 55kts on Long Island and the Cape. The fetch would cause coastal flooding.

[NDG]

3 km NAM continues with its crazy idea of turning 90L into a hurricane
https://i.imgur.com/epHXOwN.png

What would be crazier, this developing into a hurricane or NAM accurately out-forcasting all other models. I'd say "both" but NAM Tropical Wizardry???

Very unlikely.
HRRR is another not to rely on too much.

[Aric Dunn]

3 km NAM continues with its crazy idea of turning 90L into a hurricane
https://i.imgur.com/epHXOwN.png

What would be crazier, this developing into a hurricane or NAM accurately out-forcasting all other models. I'd say "both" but NAM Tropical Wizardry???

Very unlikely.
HRRR is another not to rely on too much.

HRRR and other mesoscale models are great in this situation and others like it and are used by all agencies.

long term they dont do well with large scale synoptics.

[NDG]

What would be crazier, this developing into a hurricane or NAM accurately out-forcasting all other models. I'd say "both" but NAM Tropical Wizardry???

Very unlikely.
HRRR is another not to rely on too much.

HRRR and other mesoscale models are geat in this situation and others like and are used by all agencies.

long term they dont do well with large scale synoptics.

Short term within 6 hrs at best

[Aric Dunn]

Very unlikely.
HRRR is another not to rely on too much.

HRRR and other mesoscale models are geat in this situation and others like and are used by all agencies.

long term they dont do well with large scale synoptics.

Short term within 6 hrs at best

https://i.imgur.com/Rjv4kka.gif

12 to 18 hours they do far better than global models in situations like this.

the NAM is my least fav out of the mesoscale models for short term fluctuations. NAM is definitely a better synoptic model than it is a meso model.

[NDG]

From its earlier 12z run, I hope this is not a sign that the HWRF is going to have another crappy year like last year's horrible inconsistent performance, at least compared to previous years which did better.

[NDG]

HRRR and other mesoscale models are geat in this situation and others like and are used by all agencies.

long term they dont do well with large scale synoptics.

Short term within 6 hrs at best

https://i.imgur.com/Rjv4kka.gif

12 to 18 hours they do far better than global models in situations like this.

the NAM is my least fav out of the mesoscale models for short term fluctuations. NAM is definitely a better synoptic model than it is a meso model.

In my books HRRR is also performing horrible with this system past 6 hrs-12 hrs.

[Aric Dunn]

Short term within 6 hrs at best

https://i.imgur.com/Rjv4kka.gif

12 to 18 hours they do far better than global models in situations like this.

the NAM is my least fav out of the mesoscale models for short term fluctuations. NAM is definitely a better synoptic model than it is a meso model.

In my books HRRR is also performing horrible with this system past 6 hrs-12 hrs.

https://i.imgur.com/tMs2CWA.gif

we will find out tomorrow i suppose lol

[floridasun78]

my weatherman here say north Carolina need watch this invest look like he look models show it close outer bank by next week

[xironman]

Ukie shows a TS off the coast of the OBX Monday

[northjaxpro]

The 06Z GFS has future Arthur moving N/NE, impacting the Outer Banks Monday at 999 mb, then impactng the DELMARVA region late Monday , and making landfall.on the New Jersy shore between 06Z - 12Z on Tuesday morning at 996 mb.

[xironman]

The GFS is slightly stronger and a bit further west with the upper low over Indiana, makes all the difference.

[cycloneye]

Big shift west.

[HurricaneIrma]

Big shift west.

https://i.imgur.com/Iy8fAnb.png

Cyclone eye what do you mean big shift West meaning to Center is actually on the coast of Florida or the track shifted farther west and it will come up into the North Carolina as a strong tropical storm week hurricane?

[cycloneye]

Big shift west.

https://i.imgur.com/Iy8fAnb.png

Cyclone eye what do you mean big shift West meaning to Center is actually on the coast of Florida or the track shifted farther west and it will come up into the North Carolina as a strong tropical storm week hurricane?

Only some models have shifted west but until it forms into a tropical or subtropical entity we wont know the exact future track as center reformations more east can occur.

[cycloneye]

Big shift west.

https://i.imgur.com/Iy8fAnb.png

Cyclone eye what do you mean big shift West meaning to Center is actually on the coast of Florida or the track shifted farther west and it will come up into the North Carolina as a strong tropical storm week hurricane?

Only some models have shifted west but until it forms into a tropical or subtropical entity we wont know the exact future track as center reformations more east can occur.

[TallyTracker]

Big shift west.

https://i.imgur.com/Iy8fAnb.png

Well the two model camps seem to be setting up. Those that take Arthur into the MidAtlantic and those that send the storm out to sea. Very wide spread. Timing will be critical with this track.

[Shell Mound]

Big shift west.

https://i.imgur.com/Iy8fAnb.png

Well the two model camps seem to be setting up. Those that take Arthur into the MidAtlantic and those that send the storm out to sea. Very wide spread. Timing will be critical with this track.

Note that the GFS-based models are the farthest west while the UKMET and EC, along with the reliable consensus models, are the farthest east.

[Dylan]

12z European shifted East some with 90L’s track as it passes the North Carolina compared to the 6z run.

Enough so that the Outer Banks would avoid tropical storm force gusts.