ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical

[xironman]

NHC has to start looking into gettiing watches posted up the coast later today. NC to New England are going to see some potential very significant impacts ftom this system , especially Monday and Tuesday!

Will they post tropical watches north of NC from an extra tropical system? I just don't see it being a subtropical system past NC with such cold coastal waters north to New England.

Yeah the water are very cold north of Cape Hatteras. But there is a tendency to be careful when changing from tropical to non-tropical (Sandy)

https://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_dat ... 45.n15.jpg

[GCANE]

Recon leveling off at 1000 ft

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1261637300347269120

[GCANE]

Big jump in CAPE entrainment now, up to 3000

[xironman]

My guess is once they get enough data they are going to call subtopical TS on this one. Like northjaxpro said, it is sitting on top of the gulf stream, the only place tropical development can happen at this time of year.

[GCANE]

Good outflow developing, seeing cirrus radial fingers.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 90, 2020051612, , BEST, 0, 269N, 793W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,

[northjaxpro]

My guess is once they get enough data they are going to call subtopical TS on this one. Like northjaxpro said, it is sitting on top of the gulf stream, the only place tropical development can happen at this time of year.

Yes indeed

[GCANE]

Radar indicating winds picking up along the coast and inland to Lake O

[Gums]

Salute!

NWS Aviation radar shows a clear circulation about center - SSE of Melbourne.

Got one son in Palm, so will get a boots-on-the-ground soon, and I thot we had another frequent poster there as well.

Gums sends...

[Ubuntwo]

Rain has stopped now, but all yesterday and earlier this morning we were getting nailed by band after band in PBC. Rain rates weren't ridiculous but it dragged on for a while so accumulation was over an inch. Some areas in Broward and Dade had over 3 inches yesterday.

[Aric Dunn]

Just woke up.. and sure looks like a namable system. :p

[NDG]

By the looks of the recon so far I don't think it will find a defined strong LLC, circulation is tightening up compared to yesterday but still looks to be broad.
To me it looks like the surface circulation will mover or redevelop closer to the mid level circulation getting stronger to the NE of it.

[NDG]

Lowest extrap pressure so far is around 1009 mb, COC somewhere in this broad area.

130630 2718N 07924W 9768 00289 0097 +212 +209 051001 002 017 000 01
130700 2716N 07922W 9766 00290 //// +211 //// 037002 003 019 001 01
130730 2715N 07921W 9766 00290 //// +211 //// 103002 003 017 001 01
130800 2713N 07919W 9822 00238 0095 +215 +210 155003 004 018 000 00
130830 2712N 07918W 9842 00219 0093 +216 +213 129006 007 018 000 00
130900 2711N 07917W 9836 00224 0093 +215 +212 114006 007 018 000 00
130930 2710N 07915W 9846 00215 0092 +217 +212 126005 007 019 000 00
131000 2708N 07914W 9876 00188 0092 +220 +211 150004 005 018 000 00
131030 2707N 07913W 9872 00192 0092 +219 +213 156006 007 018 000 00

[NDG]

Updated satellite loop, the MLC to the NE of the surface COC is getting better defined.

[GCANE]

Feeder band starting to fire off convection.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection is very quickly deepening associated with the llc.

Shedding some of the outer convection

[GCANE]

Looks like CoC likely at 26.9N 79.5W

[wxman57]

Weak LLC. Strongest winds WAY north and east of the center. Subtropical characteristics. Don't think it's organized enough for an upgrade to an STD. On the other hand, there was "STS Andrea" last year...

[GCANE]

Lots of cumulus quickly popping over Fl, especially around Lake O.
Any convection from this will be a big shot in the arm later today to enhance development.