https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1261651320978767872
ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical
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Dylan
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
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Mouton
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Water temp above NC is somewhere between 14-15C. Is that going to develop or maintain a tropical system, doubt it. Latest seems to be around 1009mb off SE Florida. So, does it go from ST to T before North Carolina, close call on that IMO. At 930am here in Fernandina Beach, barometer steady around 29.99 (1015)...water temp 75 or so.
IMO, the pressure gradient does not appear very tight up the coast. One thing, were this winter, it would be a hell of a snow storm up in the NYC and north west of there!
These are ramblings from a non professional observer and should be taken with a grain of salt.
Good to be back
Stay safe
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IMO, the pressure gradient does not appear very tight up the coast. One thing, were this winter, it would be a hell of a snow storm up in the NYC and north west of there!
These are ramblings from a non professional observer and should be taken with a grain of salt.
Good to be back
Stay safe
Vince
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
There is clearly a circulation there though it’s still broad.
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gfsperpendicular
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
The LLC (or at least, what appears to be an LLC) seems to have some sort of circulation, but weak and elongated which makes me think NHC will hold off on an update for now. Latest vis shows new convection between the LLC and existing MLC and I wonder if we'll see a new MLC form there?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Judging on the recon data, looks like they are riding a trof.
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northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Mouton wrote:Water temp above NC is somewhere between 14-15C. Is that going to develop or maintain a tropical system, doubt it. Latest seems to be around 1009mb off SE Florida. So, does it go from ST to T before North Carolina, close call on that IMO. At 930am here in Fernandina Beach, barometer steady around 29.99 (1015)...water temp 75 or so.
IMO, the pressure gradient does not appear very tight up the coast. One thing, were this winter, it would be a hell of a snow storm up in the NYC and north west of there!
I think within 24-36 hours this cyclone will hover over the Gulf Stream long enough to transistion into a tropical system before encountering cooler sea surface temps off the DELMARVA regon on Monday.
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wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
northjaxpro wrote:Mouton wrote:Water temp above NC is somewhere between 14-15C. Is that going to develop or maintain a tropical system, doubt it. Latest seems to be around 1009mb off SE Florida. So, does it go from ST to T before North Carolina, close call on that IMO. At 930am here in Fernandina Beach, barometer steady around 29.99 (1015)...water temp 75 or so.
IMO, the pressure gradient does not appear very tight up the coast. One thing, were this winter, it would be a hell of a snow storm up in the NYC and north west of there!
I think within 24-36 hours this cyclone will hover over the Gulf Stream long enough to transistion into a tropical system before encountering cooler sea surface temps off the DELMARVA regon on Monday.
Agree. I have it going from STD to STS to TS by tomorrow night then "E" (extratropical) on Tuesday.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
gfsperpendicular wrote:The LLC (or at least, what appears to be an LLC) seems to have some sort of circulation, but weak and elongated which makes me think NHC will hold off on an update for now. Latest vis shows new convection between the LLC and existing MLC and I wonder if we'll see a new MLC form there?
Good point about a reformation possibility.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
that deep tstrom action developing right on the north side of the circ looks to be the convergence needed to tighten this up.. recon will likely find it there if it stay out there long for the full mission.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Looking at the structure of the feeder band and where new convection is firing off from them,
I think its relocating more here
I think its relocating more here
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
This is where I would concentrate the effort..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
GCANE wrote:I think it may be reforming to the NE, closer to the MLC.
Or at least moving NE towards the MLC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Too far north, the CoC is still to the south of the convection. IMO.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
NDG wrote:
Too far north, the CoC is still to the south of the convection. IMO.
you need deep convection to close off /tighten a circ..
it indicates an area of higher convergence. where I circled. is likely the place for it to consolidate.. at least for the time being. convection is decreasing everwhere except there. which happens to be very close to where recon found the broad center.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Recon stopped the LLC invest. They closed it off and started looking for the strongest winds. My belief is a STD classification shortly.
Last edited by drezee on Sat May 16, 2020 9:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:NDG wrote:
Too far north, the CoC is still to the south of the convection. IMO.
you need deep convection to close off /tighten a circ..
it indicates an area of higher convergence. where I circled. is likely the place for it to consolidate.. at least for the time being. convection is decreasing everwhere except there. which happens to be very close to where recon found the broad center.
I see what you are saying now, I agree.
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