ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical

[MarioProtVI]

Recon sent a VDM with 1009 mb and 40 mph SFMR. Very likely a STWO is issued at 1 to up the chances to 100/100 with statement of designation of Arthur at 2.

[GCANE]

[Sciencerocks]

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.imgur.com/EJGjNq2.png

They also have not even flown through the heaviest convection yet. hopefully this pass coming up they do.

will likely find plenty of TS winds.

[TallyTracker]

With convection colocated with the center, I would personally go with fully tropical. Either TD One or TS Arthur.

[Ian2401]

Yeah I'm struggling to find out how it could at all be called sub tropical, this looks fully tropical to me

[wxman57]

Yeah I'm struggling to find out how it could at all be called sub tropical, this looks fully tropical to me

Agree, looking more tropical. Guess NHC will wait for 18Z to upgrade.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, this is T.S. Arthur ay 2:00 p.m. It really is looking pretty good and organizing quite nice early this afternoon.. Well on its way to becoming a very good looking early season cyclone. It just may make a run at Cat 1 by early Monday befire getting into cooler waters off the DELMARVA region by Tuesday.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah, this is T.S. Arthur ay 2:00 p.m. It really is looking pretty good and organizing quite nice early this afternoon.. Well on its way to becoming a very good looking early season cyclone. It just may make a run at Cat 1 by early Monday befire getting into cooler waters off the DELMARVA region by Tuesday.

yeah. there is a distinct possibility it becomes a cat 1. with the current set up and moisture channel increasing and tracking almost directly over the length of the gulf stream.

I also think it will likely get pulled the left sooner as it has been jumping north quicker with these reformations. that will bump it up agianst that ridging before it pushed out. SC/NC border is quite possible

the 00z model runs tonight will be interesting. even maybe the 18z.

all the 12z runs have it still way down by miami so we can throw those out.

[chaser1]

No question regarding this having evolved into a tropical system. I still think that NHC will first classify as a T.D. and then likely a T.S. by late afternoon or evening.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like from recon that it has indeed been pulled/reformed slightly to the NE

[ScottNAtlanta]

Seeing as how Recon sent a vortex msg with flight level temp of 23c I'd say this is fully warm core. There will be an upgrade. The question is only whether it's a TD or a TS.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure is also down at least 1 mb.

[cycloneye]

Seeing as how Recon sent a vortex msg with flight level temp of 23c I'd say this is fully warm core. There will be an upgrade. The question is only whether it's a TD or a TS.

So far they have not found winds of Tropical Storm force as the highest has been 33kt. I go with TD.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Seeing as how Recon sent a vortex msg with flight level temp of 23c I'd say this is fully warm core. There will be an upgrade. The question is only whether it's a TD or a TS.

So far they have not found winds of Tropical Storm force as the highest has been 33kt. I go with TD.

I agree. Since they didnt find TS force winds in this latest pass...as of yet

[chaser1]

Per radar, i'd guess that the center is east of Palm Bay. So perhaps an ongoing readjustment to the north or NNE. NHC might be looking for a consistent COC and looking to buy a few hours as 90L continues to slowly organize. A Special TD advisory seems likely anytime now but I still think they'll hold off on an immediate upgrade to T.S. until later.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like they are finding the center to the NE again. That puts it more in line with the MLC

[Aric Dunn]

pressure down 1 mb and center relocated to ene actually.

[Shell Mound]

While this is certainly going to become TS Arthur, it is highly unlikely to deliver any measurable impacts to the Carolinas or Mid-Atlantic states. The most reliable of the dynamically based models—the UKMET, the EC suite, and the consensus models—show Arthur curving eastward well to the east of the Outer Banks. Only the GFS-based guidance takes this system into the U.S. Recall that the GFS-based guidance falsely forecast Joaquin (2015) to reiterate Sandy (2012) and strike the Mid-Atlantic, while the UKMET and EC consistently and correctly showed a track offshore, well to the east and southeast.

[chaser1]

Interesting. Might be slightly rotating around the broader mid-level circ. as the overall vortex continues to become better aligned. That might suggest a more northward tug as it rotates and gains a bit more latitude later this afternoon and into the evening