ATL: ARTHUR - Models

[toad strangler]

12z European shifted East some with 90L’s track as it passes the North Carolina compared to the 6z run.

Enough so that the Outer Banks would avoid tropical storm force gusts.

12z GFS and Euro at 72 hours couldn't be more different.

[TheStormExpert]

12z European shifted East some with 90L’s track as it passes the North Carolina compared to the 6z run.

Enough so that the Outer Banks would avoid tropical storm force gusts.

12z GFS and Euro at 72 hours couldn't be more different.

http://i.ibb.co/vXGh31k/12zEURO.png

http://i.ibb.co/LQQGyyc/12zGFS.png

That’s pretty bad agreement for just 3 days out!

[xironman]

Really it is where the mid west ULL sets up, either it will push the storm out to sea or swing it around.

[ROCK]

Going to have to give props to the CNC on this one. Saw it a few days back in previous runs. Yeah I know crazy uncle model blah blah however I always look at the CMC to sniff development before the major globals. After development I look at the Euro, UK then the GFS for track. Use that blend. Also like the NOGAPS wait NAVGEM lol

[Abdullah]

Going to have to give props to the CNC on this one. Saw it a few days back in previous runs. Yeah I know crazy uncle model blah blah however I always look at the CMC to sniff development before the major globals. After development I look at the Euro, UK then the GFS for track. Use that blend. Also like the NOGAPS wait NAVGEM lol

I've heard the UKMET's good on intensity. Where should I go to find them, though?

[xironman]

Going to have to give props to the CNC on this one. Saw it a few days back in previous runs. Yeah I know crazy uncle model blah blah however I always look at the CMC to sniff development before the major globals. After development I look at the Euro, UK then the GFS for track. Use that blend. Also like the NOGAPS wait NAVGEM lol

I've heard the UKMET's good on intensity. Where should I go to find them, though?

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[plasticup]

12z GFS with a stronger ridge, trapping Arthur sooner. Doesn't get above 37 N.

[Ken711]

12z GFS with a stronger ridge, trapping Arthur sooner. Doesn't get above 37 N.

Looks like the GFS is a little further east this run.

[NDG]

The HWRF is going to struggle with weak systems this season again, by the way it looks. I see that with Amphan it has been struggling with it also.

[CreponChris]

HI all! Long time no post. I've got an animated GIF here of the 00Z EPS which may have already been posted.


And this may not count as a "model" per say but this is the NWS max forecast gust speed over the next few days which comes from the National Digital Forecast Database or NDFD.



~Chris

[Gums]

Salute!

Looking at long range NHC model, anyone here remember a few legends of the past? You know, where the storm did a loop and came back to south Florida or into the Gulf or even a loop in the Gulf?

Betsy in '65 and Elena in '85 come to mind.

Jez asking, as I am not as savvy to all the nuances that many vets here express. Only been thru a few dozen direct and near misses on the Gulf Coast since a kid, and have a fair understanding of the weather and climate terms from being a pilot.

Gums asks...

[Hurricaneman]

The fact that the 0zEuro has Arthur loop back to the Bahamas in 10 days, we may not be done with this until late next week. Something to keep an eye on. The GFS seems to be hinting at this solution too

[ROCK]

The HWRF is going to struggle with weak systems this season again, by the way it looks. I see that with Amphan it has been struggling with it also.

https://i.imgur.com/peazaPK.gif

When doesn’t the HWRF struggle with any system regardless of size?? It’s entertaining for intensity but I wouldn’t give a dollar for the tracks it spits out. JMO